PVC周报：基本面驱动不足，PVC价格偏弱震荡

研究院化工组 策略摘要 研究员 梁宗泰020-83901005liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 PVC基本面偏弱。本周PVC行业开工小幅提升，后期随着部分装备检修结束产能有进一步提升预期；下游制品企业开工变化不大，且对高价原料抵触，逢低刚需采购状态；库存整体略增，因下游需求清淡，原本过高库存无法有效去化，且随着北方冬季到来，需求有进一步走低预期；印度市场采购需求仍存，但根据以往经验以及印度前三季度采购情况来看，后市出口持续性存疑；目前情况下，PVC基本面仍处于“弱现实”状态。但国内外宏观预期仍偏好。国外就业市场紧张程度较前期有所缓解；国内出台刺激政策继续加码稳增长，各地陆续松绑地产政策或对建材品种形成一定利好。整体看来，PVC目前基本面驱动不足，而宏观层面仍存向好预期。关注PVC供给端变化以及宏观政策落地情况。建议暂时观望。 陈莉020-83901135cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 ■市场分析 电石开工率：截至11月9日，周度平均开工负荷率在73.09%，环比上周下降1.07个百分点。 PVC产量及开工率：截至11月9日，整体开工负荷75.1%，环比提升0.14个百分点。其中电石法PVC开工负荷75.54%，环比提升0.82个百分点；乙烯法PVC开工负荷73.76%，环比下降1.93个百分点。 PVC检修：截至11月9日，停车及检修造成的损失量在8.275万吨，较上周增加1.159万吨。预计下周检修损失量较本周减少。 PVC库存：截至11月9日，仓库总库存37.49万吨，较上一期增加0.27%。 需求：下游制品企业订单不佳，逢低刚需补货。 ■策略 中性。 ■风险 宏观情绪变化；库存变化情况。 目录 策略摘要............................................................................................................................................................................................1核心观点............................................................................................................................................................................................1 图表 图1:华南基差丨单位：元/吨.........................................................................................................................................................3图2:华东基差丨单位：元/吨.........................................................................................................................................................3图3:华东-西北-450丨单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................................3图4:华南-华东-50丨单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................................3图5:华北-西北-250丨单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................................3图6:V1-V5丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................................................3图7:V5-V9丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................................................4图8:V9-V1丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................................................4图9:西北自有电石PVC成本丨单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................4图10:山东外购电石PVC成本丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................4图11:PVC产量丨单位：万吨.........................................................................................................................................................4图12:PVC开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................................4图13:电石法开工率丨单位：%.....................................................................................................................................................5图14:乙烯法开工率丨单位：%.....................................................................................................................................................5图15:PVC进口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................................5图16:PVC出口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................................5图17:西北氯碱综合利润丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................5图18:山东氯碱综合利润丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................5图19:西北自有电石PVC利润丨单位：元/吨...............................................................................................................................6图20:山东外购电石PVC利润丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................6图21:PVC华北下游开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................6图22:PVC华南下游开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................6图23:PVC华东下游开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................6图24:PVC铺地制品出口丨单位：万吨.......................................