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Deutsche Bank Research's Global Equity Strategy & Asset Allocation report highlights the resilience of the economy, despite widespread pessimism that the cycle was ending. The report suggests that the tug of war between factors imparting resilience and recessionary forces will continue, and the goods-services rotation is coming to a head. The consensus sees a recession but not a steep slowing in growth, and earnings suggest a mild recession happened last year and a robust recovery is underway. The report also notes that the focus remains on the downside from a tight labor market, but not on the upside that has driven phases of rapid productivity growth. The report suggests that near-term, with a number of potential negative catalysts, the typical pullback underway can extend. Further out, the key question is whether growth and inflation surprises can continue. The report evaluates the implications of three sets of views for equities, with the house view of a widely anticipated mild short recession pointing to a quick sell-off and rebound leaving equities in a good position.
