PVC周报：出口利好叠加检修损失增加，PVC重心上移

研究院化工组 策略摘要 研究员 梁宗泰020-83901005liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 上周PVC价格重心上移。因受7月底装置检修增加，装置开工率有所下降以及台塑上调出口报价两方面影响，PVC价格短期有所提振。但目前市场需求端仍显不足，由于地产需求总量下降且施工进度普遍缓慢，正处于需求淡季且开工小幅下滑。供应端检修损失量虽然增加，但制品企业有一定的原料库存和成品库存，原料采购积极性一般，维持刚需采购。社会库存仍维持偏高水平。短期内出口端虽有放量但难改供应宽松格局。中长期从供需两端看，仍不乐观。 陈莉020-83901030cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 电石开工率：截至7月20日，周度平均开工负荷率在68.05%，环比上周上升0.64个百分点。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 PVC产量及开工率：截至7月20日，整体开工负荷71.5%，环比下降2.32个百分点。其中电石法PVC开工负荷69.34%，环比下降2.78个百分点；乙烯法PVC开工负荷78.02%，环比下降0.93个百分点。 PVC检修：截至7月20日，停车及检修造成的损失量在7.641万吨，较上周增加1.323万吨。预计下周检修损失量较本周变化不大。 PVC库存：截至7月14日，仓库总库存41.8万吨，较上一期减少0.55%，同比增加15.34%。 需求：下游制品企业多数有一定原料库存，追涨意愿不明显。 ■策略 中性。 ■风险 宏观情绪变化；库存变化情况。 目录 摘要....................................................................................................................................................................................................1核心观点............................................................................................................................................................................................1 图表 图1:华南基差丨单位：元/吨.........................................................................................................................................................3图2:华东基差丨单位：元/吨.........................................................................................................................................................3图3:华东-西北-450丨单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................................3图4:华南-华东-50丨单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................................3图5:华北-西北-250丨单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................................3图6:V1-V5丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................................................3图7:V5-V9丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................................................4图8:V9-V1丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................................................4图9:西北自有电石PVC成本丨单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................4图10:山东外购电石PVC成本丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................4图11:PVC产量丨单位：万吨.........................................................................................................................................................4图12:PVC开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................................4图13:电石法开工率丨单位：%.....................................................................................................................................................5图14:乙烯法开工率丨单位：%.....................................................................................................................................................5图15:PVC进口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................................5图16:PVC出口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................................5图17:西北氯碱综合利润丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................5图18:山东氯碱综合利润丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................5图19:西北自有电石PVC利润丨单位：元/吨...............................................................................................................................6图20:山东外购电石PVC利润丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................6图21:PVC华北下游开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................6图22:PVC华南下游开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................6图23:PVC华东下游开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................6图24:PVC铺地制品出口丨单位：万吨.................................................................................................................................