宏观经济 | 2023年4月28日 本报告由建银国际证券有限公司撰写。分析师证明及其他重要声明请见报告最后一页。 1 报告摘要  欧美加息周期接近尾声，预计央行保持收紧且难以快速宽松。欧美经济表现坚挺，通胀仍在高位，金融业风险有所抑制。我们预计联储5月继续加息25个基点，6月加息仍有可能，下半年预计利率持稳。并继续用短期融资等工具对冲可能的流动性压力。欧英日通胀压力居高不下，料欧英央行继续提高利率但加息步伐亦趋于谨慎。日本央行则可能再次调整利率曲线政策，带动长端利率的上升。全球市场对联储下半年降息可能过于乐观。预计海外利率波动仍在高位。2季度美国2年和10年国债收益率中位数预计在3.9-4.2%和3.4-3.7%区间，之后下行。  中国经济1季度复苏超预期，宏观政策基调预计以稳为主。消费快速反弹拉动1季度经济的超预期复苏。地产价格有所反弹，销售逐步企稳，地产融资有所改善，但地产投资持续萎缩。未来环比增速预计有所回落，居民收入和就业的改善可持续带动消费复苏。宏观政策预计保持温和宽松，专项债的发行料将前置，支持基建投资。在结构性信贷带动下信用周期小幅扩张，降息可能不大。由于经济开局强劲，上调全年经济增长预期至5.3%。  美元进入下行周期，人民币汇率预计区间震荡后小幅回升：如果联储5月前瞻指引偏鹰派，或美国债务上限谈判陷入僵局而加剧市场对未来衰退担忧，美元可能短期反弹。但由于联储收紧近尾声，而欧日央行的政策收紧更为持续，预计美元指数中期下滑趋势不变，全球资金预计继续回流新兴市场。人民币对美元汇率短期仍在6.8-7.0区间内波动，年底有望升至6.7。  受全球金融条件影响离岸美元债市小幅承压: 中资离岸美元债总体净融资预计持续萎缩。随着欧美信贷条件逐步收紧和增长动能持续放缓，全球信用市场和中资离岸债市未来数月预计持续承压。中资离岸地产债券仍将面临较大的到期压力，加上地产销售缓慢修复，预计市场分化仍持续。 下月重点关注：国际方面，需要关注欧美国家通胀及就业数据，货币政策决定和前瞻指引，以及美国关于债务上限的谈判。国内方面，关注经济活动高频数据，稳增长和行业政策。 Main points:  Although the tightening cycle in advanced economies is near its end, central banks are expected to keep a tight stance and unlikely to loosen policy anytime soon. US and European economies remain resilient and their banking crises have receded, but inflation remains high. We expect a 25bp Fed rate hike in May. A Jun hike is still possible, in our view. We expect the Fed to stay on hold in 2H, while potentially deploying liquidity instruments to deal with financial stability issues. Inflation pressure remains elevated in Europe, UK and Japan. The ECB and BoE are expected to hike interest rates albeit cautiously. The BoJ may adjust the YCC policy again, driving higher long-term interest rates. Global markets may be too optimistic about potential Fed rate cuts in 2H. We expect elevated interest rate volatility to persist. We expect 2-year and 10-year UST yields to trade between 3.9-4.2% and 3.4-3.7% in 2Q, respectively.  Domestic recovery beat expectations with macro policy focusing on stability. Rapidly rebounding consumption led a stronger-than-expected 1Q recovery in China. Property prices and housing sales stabilized and property financing improved, while property investment shrunk further. We expect sequential economic growth to slow. Improvement in household income and employment are key for further consumption recovery. Macro policy is expected to remain moderately loose, with front-loaded special bond issuance. Structural credit demand will likely drive a moderate credit expansion, but rate cuts are unlikely. We upgrade our 2023 GDP growth forecast to 5.3% following a strong 1Q start.  USD downtrend is intact, and we expect RMB to rise towards year-end after range-bound trading. If forward guidance at the May FOMC meeting leans hawkish, or the US debt ceiling impasse raises recession fears, the USD could rebound in the short-term. However, the monetary policy divergence between the Fed and other major central banks points to a continued USD downtrend and capital inflows to emerging markets. We expect USDCNY to trade between 6.8 and 7.0 before falling to 6.7 by the year-end.  Global backdrop could have spillovers to Chinese offshore dollar bond market. We expect overall Chinese offshore USD bond net issuance to continue shrinking. Global credit markets and China's offshore bond markets are expected to remain under pressure in coming months as credit conditions tighten and growth momentum in advanced economies continues to slow. Still-elevated refinancing pressure and a slow recovery of property sales points to continued market differentiation among Chinese property developers. Data and key events next month. On the international front, investors should focus on inflation and employment data, monetary policy meetings in Europe and the US, and US debt ceiling negotiations. Domestically, the focus is on high-frequency economic data and macro policy. 崔历 (852) 3911 8274 cuili@ccbintl.com 谢炫 (852) 3911 8241 kevinxie@ccbintl.com 建银国际证券 ｜宏观研究 宏观月报: 2023年4月–中国复苏超预期；联储升息接近尾声 Macro Outlook Update – Apr 2023: China 1Q growth beat expectations；Fed tightening cycle close to an end 宏观经济 | 2023年4月28日 建银国际证券 2 海外宏观：核心通胀放缓仍需时日，联储预计再次加息 欧美核心通胀仍处高位，料未来放缓仍较缓慢：受持续加息和能源价格高基数影响，欧美整体通胀同比增速4月放缓。美国整体通胀连续第10个月同比下滑，3月放缓至5%，这也是2021年4月以来的最低增速。不过，核心通胀增速仍较坚挺（图1）。美国核心通胀环比增速从2月的0.5%小幅下行至3月的0.4%。一些服务通胀分项环比增速下滑。特别是住房通胀如预期降温，未来预计持续放缓。然而核心通胀放缓较慢，过去四个月同比增速一直在5.5%-5.7%的区间内波动。欧洲核心通胀增速3月连续第4个月环比上升，至同比5.7%的历史新高。服务通胀攀升，意味欧洲通胀在未来仍难以快速降温。日本核心通胀同比增速3月攀升至3.8%的新高。日本劳工谈判导致薪资增速大幅提高，未来预计增加日本核心通胀压力。 海外银行业风险压力回落：3月以来欧美监管机构迅速果断出手遏制了银行危机的蔓延，特别是增加对银行的短期融资，美元融资压力回落(图2)。但银行个体风险持续：例如近期之前受困的第一信托银行因无法增强财务实力，导致股价再次大幅下跌，面临倒闭风险。美联储在4月公布的褐皮书中表示因经济增长低迷和对流动性的担忧，银行收紧贷款标准。未来仍需关注信贷收紧可能对实体经济有所冲击。例如，美国商业地产的信贷有大约70%来自中小银行。如果信贷进一步紧缩，将加剧商业地产等实体部门的下滑压力。 欧美经济表现4月持续超预期，但预计将逐步走弱：欧美综合PMI的初步估值在4月分别上升至53.5和54.4，为近11个月以来的最高值（图3）。服务业持续超预期温和扩张，制造业萎缩逐步收窄。欧洲服务业PMI上升至56.6，这也是近一年的高位。美国就业参与率持续上升，表明劳动力供给有所增加，带动薪资增速逐步放缓。但美国就业市场仍偏紧，新增劳动力可以很快找到工作，失业率3月降至3.5%，非农就业增速虽在3月小幅下降，但仍快于疫情前水平（图4）。按照