热卷期价先扬后抑，上行动力不足「2023.05.19」作者：许方莉期货投资咨询证号：Z0017638热轧卷板市场周报联系电话：0595-36208239关注我们获取 更 多 资 讯瑞达期货研究院业务咨询添加客服 目录1、周度要点小结2、期现市场3、产业情况 3来源：瑞达期货研究院「周度要点小结」本周热卷期价先扬后抑。周初因多家银行调整两类存款利率，有银行下调幅度达55个基点，一定程度上提振市场信心，但炉料走势不稳影响炼钢成本，叠加热卷终端表现一般，下半周期价再度承压走弱。后市展望：供应端，热卷周度产量继续小幅回落，产能利用率下调至80%下方，随着部分高炉复产，供应量或有所回升。需求端，终端需求表现一般，库存量变化不大。短期，美国债务上限谈判进展影响着市场情绪，行情波动有所反复。操作上建议，HC2310合约于3750-3600区间高抛低买，止损50元/吨。 4「期现市场情况」本周期货价格先扬后抑本周，HC2310合约先扬后抑。本周，HC2310合约强于HC2401合约，19日价差为73元/吨，周环比+4元/吨。图1、热轧卷板主力合约收盘及持仓量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图2、热轧卷板跨期套利来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院0100000200000300000400000500000600000700000800000900000100000033003500370039004100430045002022-11-012022-11-072022-11-112022-11-172022-11-232022-11-292022-12-052022-12-092022-12-152022-12-212022-12-272023-01-032023-01-092023-01-132023-01-192023-02-012023-02-072023-02-132023-02-172023-02-232023-03-012023-03-072023-03-132023-03-172023-03-232023-03-292023-04-042023-04-112023-04-172023-04-212023-04-272023-05-082023-05-122023-05-18HC2310合约收盘价与持仓量持仓量oi收盘价close-200-150-100-500501001502002502022-01-202022-02-102022-02-242022-03-102022-03-242022-04-112022-04-252022-05-122022-05-262022-06-102022-06-242022-07-082022-07-222022-08-052022-08-192022-09-022022-09-192022-10-102022-10-242022-11-072022-11-212022-12-052022-12-192023-01-032023-01-172023-02-072023-02-212023-03-072023-03-212023-04-042023-04-192023-05-08HC10-HC01合约价差 5「期现市场情况」本周上期所热卷仓单增加，前20名持仓净多减少5月19日，上海期货交易所热卷仓单量为37158吨，周环比+14868吨。5月19日，热卷期货合约前二十名净持仓为净多46366张，较上一周减少20721张。图3、上期所热轧卷板仓单日报来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图4、热轧卷板期货合约前二十名净持仓来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院0500001000001500002000002500003000002020-01-022020-02-132020-03-182020-04-222020-05-292020-07-062020-08-072020-09-102020-10-222020-11-252020-12-292021-02-022021-03-152021-04-192021-05-262021-06-302021-08-032021-09-062021-10-192021-11-222021-12-242022-01-282022-03-102022-04-152022-05-242022-06-282022-08-012022-09-022022-10-142022-11-172022-12-212023-02-012023-03-072023-04-112023-05-18库存期货:热轧卷板（吨）-150000-100000-500000500001000004000004500005000005500006000006500007000007500008000008500002022-01-042022-01-242022-02-182022-03-102022-03-302022-04-212022-05-162022-06-062022-06-242022-07-142022-08-032022-08-232022-09-132022-10-102022-10-282022-11-172022-12-072022-12-272023-01-172023-02-132023-03-032023-03-232023-04-132023-05-08热卷期货合约前20名净持仓净持仓（右）多头持仓空单持仓 6「期现市场情况」本周现货价格上调5月19日，上海热轧卷板5.75mm Q235现货报价为3890元/吨，周环比+50元/吨；全国均价为3883元/吨，周环比+29元/吨。本周，热卷现货价格弱于期货价格，19日基差为168元/吨，周环比-50元/吨。图5、全国各地区热轧卷板现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图6、热轧卷板主力合约期现基差来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院350037003900410043004500470049005100530055002022-01-042022-01-142022-01-262022-02-102022-02-222022-03-042022-03-162022-03-282022-04-082022-04-202022-04-292022-05-132022-05-252022-06-072022-06-172022-06-292022-07-112022-07-212022-08-022022-08-122022-08-242022-09-052022-09-162022-09-282022-10-132022-10-252022-11-042022-11-162022-11-282022-12-082022-12-202022-12-302023-01-122023-01-292023-02-082023-02-202023-03-022023-03-142023-03-242023-04-062023-04-182023-04-272023-05-11全国各地区热卷现货报价价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:上海元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:杭州元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:武汉元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:广州元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:天津元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:全国元/吨-200-1000100200300400500600700800900350037003900410043004500470049005100530055002021-11-032021-11-222021-12-092021-12-282022-01-172022-02-102022-03-012022-03-182022-04-082022-04-272022-05-192022-06-082022-06-272022-07-142022-08-022022-08-192022-09-072022-09-272022-10-212022-11-092022-11-282022-12-152023-01-042023-01-302023-02-162023-03-072023-03-242023-04-132023-05-05热卷10合约期现基差10月基差期货收盘价(10月交割连续):热轧卷板现货 7「上游市场情况」本周炉料铁矿石现货上调，焦炭现货价格持平5月19日，青岛港61%澳洲麦克粉矿报826元/干吨，周环比+18元/干吨。5月19日，天津港一级冶金焦现货报价2190元/吨，周环比+0元/吨。图7、铁矿石现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图8、焦炭现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院65851051251451651852052252454006008001000120014001600180020002021-01-052021-02-042021-03-152021-04-152021-05-202021-06-222021-07-222021-08-232021-09-242021-11-022021-12-022022-01-042022-02-102022-03-142022-04-152022-05-202022-06-222022-07-222022-08-232022-09-232022-11-012022-12-012023-01-032023-02-092023-03-132023-04-132023-05-18青岛港铁矿石现货价格麦克粉(61%)普氏（62%Fe）(右)元/干吨美元/吨20002500300035004000450050002021-01-042021-02-022021-03-092021-04-082021-05-122021-06-102021-07-122021-08-102021-09-082021-10-182021-11-162021-12-152022-01-142022-02-172022-03-182022-04-202022-05-232022-06-222022-07-212022-08-192022-09-202022-10-262022-11-242022-12-232023-01-292023-02-272023-03-282023-04-27天津港一级冶金焦 8「上游市场情况」本周澳巴铁矿石发运总量减少据Mysteel统计，本期澳大利亚、巴西铁矿石发运总量为2327.8万吨，环比减少287.6万吨。5月8日-5月14日中国47港到港总量2571.5万吨，环比增加422.0万吨；中国45港到港总量2402.8万吨，环比增加335.5万吨；北方六港到港总量为1083.9万吨，环比增加113.0万吨。图9、澳巴铁矿石发运总量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图10、铁矿石到港量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院-800-600-400-2000200400600800100012001400160018002000220024002600280030002019-01-062019-02-242019-04-142019-06-022019-07-212019-09-082019-10-272019-12-152020-02-022020-03-222020-05-102020-06-282020-08-162020-10-042020-11-222021-01-102021-02-282021-04-182021-06-062021-07-252021-09-122021-10-312021-12-192022-02-062022-03-272022-05-152022-07-032022-08-212022-10-092022-11-272023-01-152023-03-052023-04-23