产量回落&库存微增，热卷先抑后扬「2022.12.23」作者：陈一兰期货投资咨询证号：Z0012698热轧卷板市场周报联系电话：0595-36208239关注我们获取 更 多 资 讯瑞达期货研究院业务咨询添加客服 目录1、周度要点小结2、期现市场3、产业情况 3来源：瑞达期货研究院「周度要点小结」本周热卷期价先抑后扬。周初因炉料走弱及热卷库存回升，表观消费量下行，打压期价。随后焦化厂因利润收缩，焦炭现货价格再度提涨，提升炼钢成本对热卷期价亦构成支撑。另外，国常会再度表示要狠抓稳经济政策落实，提振市场信心。后市展望：供应端，本期热卷周度产量减少，因临近春节假期，部分高炉检修，同时也受品种转产影响；需求端，厂内库存与社会库存一降一增，总量微增，表观消费量继续下滑。最后，国内宏观面整体向好，对热卷期价仍有支撑作用。操作上建议，HC2305合约回调仍可考虑择机做多，注意主流持仓变化及风险控制。 4「期现市场情况」本周期货价格高位整理本周，HC2305合约继续高位整理。本周，HC2301合约强于HC2305合约，23日价差为37元/吨，周环比+13元/吨。图1、热轧卷板主力合约收盘及持仓量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图2、热轧卷板跨期套利来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院0204060801001202022-06-012022-06-092022-06-162022-06-232022-06-302022-07-072022-07-142022-07-212022-07-282022-08-042022-08-112022-08-182022-08-252022-09-012022-09-082022-09-162022-09-232022-09-302022-10-142022-10-212022-10-282022-11-042022-11-112022-11-182022-11-252022-12-022022-12-092022-12-162022-12-23HC2301-HC2305合约价差01000002000003000004000005000006000007000008000009000003300350037003900410043004500470049002022-06-012022-06-082022-06-142022-06-202022-06-242022-06-302022-07-062022-07-122022-07-182022-07-222022-07-282022-08-032022-08-092022-08-152022-08-192022-08-252022-08-312022-09-062022-09-132022-09-192022-09-232022-09-292022-10-122022-10-182022-10-242022-10-282022-11-032022-11-092022-11-152022-11-212022-11-252022-12-012022-12-072022-12-132022-12-192022-12-23HC2305合约收盘价与持仓量持仓量oi收盘价close 5「期现市场情况」本周上期所热卷仓单减少，前20名持仓净空减少12月23日，上海期货交易所热卷仓单量为21976吨，周环比-3861吨。12月23日，热卷期货合约前二十名净持仓为净空13705张，较上一周减少19431张。图3、上期所热轧卷板仓单日报来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图4、热轧卷板期货合约前二十名净持仓来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院0500001000001500002000002500003000002020-01-022020-02-102020-03-102020-04-092020-05-132020-06-112020-07-142020-08-122020-09-102020-10-192020-11-172020-12-162021-01-152021-02-222021-03-232021-04-222021-05-262021-06-252021-07-262021-08-242021-09-242021-11-012021-11-302021-12-292022-01-282022-03-072022-04-072022-05-112022-06-102022-07-112022-08-092022-09-072022-10-142022-11-142022-12-13库存期货:热轧卷板（吨）-140000-120000-100000-80000-60000-40000-20000020000400004000004500005000005500006000006500007000007500008000002022-01-042022-01-182022-02-082022-02-222022-03-082022-03-222022-04-072022-04-212022-05-102022-05-242022-06-082022-06-222022-07-062022-07-202022-08-032022-08-172022-08-312022-09-152022-09-292022-10-202022-11-032022-11-172022-12-012022-12-15热卷期货合约前20名净持仓净持仓（右）多头持仓空单持仓 6「期现市场情况」本周现货价格下调12月23日，上海热轧卷板5.75mm Q235现货报价为4080元/吨，周环比-60元/吨；全国均价为4120元/吨，周环比-69元/吨。本周，热卷现货价格与期货价格持平，23日基差为35元/吨，周环比+0元/吨。图5、全国各地区热轧卷板现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图6、热轧卷板主力合约期现基差来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院350037003900410043004500470049005100530055002022-01-042022-01-122022-01-202022-01-282022-02-102022-02-182022-02-282022-03-082022-03-162022-03-242022-04-012022-04-122022-04-202022-04-272022-05-092022-05-172022-05-252022-06-022022-06-132022-06-212022-06-292022-07-072022-07-152022-07-252022-08-022022-08-102022-08-182022-08-262022-09-052022-09-142022-09-222022-09-302022-10-132022-10-212022-10-312022-11-082022-11-162022-11-242022-12-022022-12-122022-12-20全国各地区热卷现货报价价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:上海元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:杭州元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:武汉元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:广州元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:天津元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:全国元/吨-200020040060080010003000350040004500500055006000650070002021-01-042021-02-012021-03-082021-04-062021-05-072021-06-042021-07-052021-08-022021-08-302021-09-292021-11-032021-12-012021-12-292022-01-272022-03-032022-03-312022-05-052022-06-022022-07-012022-07-292022-08-262022-09-262022-10-312022-11-28热卷5月合约期现基差5月基差期货收盘价(5月交割连续):热轧卷板现货 7「上游市场情况」本周炉料铁矿石现货下调，焦炭现货价格上调12月23日，青岛港61%澳洲麦克粉矿报859元/干吨，周环比-17元/干吨。12月23日，天津港一级冶金焦现货报价3010元/吨，周环比+100元/吨。图7、铁矿石现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图8、焦炭现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院20002500300035004000450050002021-01-042021-02-022021-03-092021-04-082021-05-122021-06-102021-07-122021-08-102021-09-082021-10-182021-11-162021-12-152022-01-142022-02-172022-03-182022-04-202022-05-232022-06-222022-07-212022-08-192022-09-202022-10-262022-11-242022-12-23天津港一级冶金焦65851051251451651852052252454006008001000120014001600180020002021-01-042021-01-282021-03-022021-03-262021-04-222021-05-212021-06-172021-07-132021-08-062021-09-012021-09-292021-11-012021-11-252021-12-212022-01-172022-02-172022-03-152022-04-122022-05-112022-06-072022-07-012022-07-272022-08-222022-09-162022-10-192022-11-142022-12-08青岛港铁矿石现货价格麦克粉(61%)普氏（62%Fe）(右)元/干吨美元/吨 8「上游市场情况」本周澳巴铁矿石发运总量增加据Mysteel统计，本期澳大利亚、巴西铁矿石发运总量为2731.5万吨，环比增加304.8万吨。12月12日-12月18日中国47港到港总量2651.6万吨，环比增加141.5万吨；中国45港到港总量2528.4万吨，环比增加120.0万吨；北方六港到港总量为1178.7万吨，环比增加48.8万吨。图9、澳巴铁矿石发运总量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图10、铁矿石到港量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院-800-600-400-2000200400600800100012001400160018002000220024002600280030002019-01-062019-02-242019-04-142019-06-022019-07-212019-09-082019-10-272019-12-152020-02-022020-03-222020-05-102020-06-282020-08-162020-10-042020-11-222021-01-102021-02-282021-04-182021-06-062021-07-252021-09-122021-10-312021-12-192022-02-062022-03-272022-05-152022-07-032022-08-212022-10-092022-11-27澳巴铁矿石发货总量增减澳巴总量-1000-800-600-400-20002004006008001500170019002100230025002700290031002021/1/32021/1/312021/2/282021/3/282021/4/252021/5/23202