热卷期价先抑后扬，关注上方压力「2023.05.26」作者：许方莉期货投资咨询证号：Z0017638热轧卷板市场周报联系电话：0595-36208239关注我们获取 更 多 资 讯瑞达期货研究院业务咨询添加客服 目录1、周度要点小结2、期现市场3、产业情况 3来源：瑞达期货研究院「周度要点小结」本周热卷期价先抑后扬。由于美国债务上限谈判一度陷入停滞、美欧高利率所带来的经济衰退担忧致使市场情绪较为悲观，叠加炉料走弱，炼钢成本下移持续打压热卷期价，HC2310合约下探至3500附近。直至周五，受美债务上限磋商取得进展，同时炉料走高支撑期价止跌反弹。后市展望：供应端，热卷周度产量由降转增，产能利用率再度上调至80%上方，随着部分钢厂高炉复产，供应量或继续回升。需求端，终端需求表现一般，库存量变化不大。短期，钢材产量增加将支撑炉料需求，同时美债务上限磋商取得进展对热卷期价构成一定支撑，但终端需求复苏缓慢，随着产量回升，期价或反弹承压。操作上建议，HC2310合约于3550-3700区间低买高抛，止损50元/吨。 4「期现市场情况」本周期货价格先抑后扬本周，HC2310合约先抑后扬。本周，HC2310合约弱于HC2401合约，26日价差为70元/吨，周环比-3元/吨。图1、热轧卷板主力合约收盘及持仓量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图2、热轧卷板跨期套利来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院0100000200000300000400000500000600000700000800000900000100000033003500370039004100430045002022-11-012022-11-072022-11-112022-11-172022-11-232022-11-292022-12-052022-12-092022-12-152022-12-212022-12-272023-01-032023-01-092023-01-132023-01-192023-02-012023-02-072023-02-132023-02-172023-02-232023-03-012023-03-072023-03-132023-03-172023-03-232023-03-292023-04-042023-04-112023-04-172023-04-212023-04-272023-05-082023-05-122023-05-182023-05-24HC2310合约收盘价与持仓量持仓量oi收盘价close-200-150-100-500501001502002502022-01-202022-02-112022-02-282022-03-152022-03-302022-04-182022-05-062022-05-232022-06-082022-06-232022-07-082022-07-252022-08-092022-08-242022-09-082022-09-262022-10-182022-11-022022-11-172022-12-022022-12-192023-01-042023-01-192023-02-102023-02-272023-03-142023-03-292023-04-142023-05-042023-05-19HC10-HC01合约价差 5「期现市场情况」本周上期所热卷仓单减少，前20名持仓净多减少5月26日，上海期货交易所热卷仓单量为34792吨，周环比-2366吨。5月26日，热卷期货合约前二十名净持仓为净多37092张，较上一周减少9274张。图3、上期所热轧卷板仓单日报来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图4、热轧卷板期货合约前二十名净持仓来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院0500001000001500002000002500003000002020-01-022020-02-132020-03-182020-04-222020-05-292020-07-062020-08-072020-09-102020-10-222020-11-252020-12-292021-02-022021-03-152021-04-192021-05-262021-06-302021-08-032021-09-062021-10-192021-11-222021-12-242022-01-282022-03-102022-04-152022-05-242022-06-282022-08-012022-09-022022-10-142022-11-172022-12-212023-02-012023-03-072023-04-112023-05-18库存期货:热轧卷板（吨）-150000-100000-500000500001000004000004500005000005500006000006500007000007500008000008500009000002022-01-042022-01-242022-02-182022-03-102022-03-302022-04-212022-05-162022-06-062022-06-242022-07-142022-08-032022-08-232022-09-132022-10-102022-10-282022-11-172022-12-072022-12-272023-01-172023-02-132023-03-032023-03-232023-04-132023-05-082023-05-26热卷期货合约前20名净持仓净持仓（右）多头持仓空单持仓 6「期现市场情况」本周现货价格下调5月26日，上海热轧卷板5.75mm Q235现货报价为3750元/吨，周环比-140元/吨；全国均价为3745元/吨，周环比-136元/吨。本周，热卷现货价格弱于期货价格，26日基差为144元/吨，周环比-24元/吨。图5、全国各地区热轧卷板现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图6、热轧卷板主力合约期现基差来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院3300380043004800530058002022-01-042022-01-142022-01-262022-02-102022-02-222022-03-042022-03-162022-03-282022-04-082022-04-202022-04-292022-05-132022-05-252022-06-072022-06-172022-06-292022-07-112022-07-212022-08-022022-08-122022-08-242022-09-052022-09-162022-09-282022-10-132022-10-252022-11-042022-11-162022-11-282022-12-082022-12-202022-12-302023-01-122023-01-292023-02-082023-02-202023-03-022023-03-142023-03-242023-04-062023-04-182023-04-272023-05-112023-05-23全国各地区热卷现货报价价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:上海元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:杭州元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:武汉元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:广州元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:天津元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:全国元/吨-200-1000100200300400500600700800900350037003900410043004500470049005100530055002021-11-032021-11-232021-12-132021-12-312022-01-212022-02-172022-03-092022-03-292022-04-202022-05-132022-06-022022-06-232022-07-132022-08-022022-08-222022-09-092022-09-302022-10-272022-11-162022-12-062022-12-262023-01-162023-02-102023-03-022023-03-222023-04-122023-05-052023-05-25热卷10合约期现基差10月基差期货收盘价(10月交割连续):热轧卷板现货 7「上游市场情况」本周炉料铁矿石现货下调，焦炭现货价格下调5月26日，青岛港61%澳洲麦克粉矿报779元/干吨，周环比-47元/干吨。5月26日，天津港一级冶金焦现货报价2140元/吨，周环比-50元/吨。图7、铁矿石现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图8、焦炭现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院65851051251451651852052252454006008001000120014001600180020002021-01-052021-02-042021-03-152021-04-152021-05-202021-06-222021-07-222021-08-232021-09-242021-11-022021-12-022022-01-042022-02-102022-03-142022-04-152022-05-202022-06-222022-07-222022-08-232022-09-232022-11-012022-12-012023-01-032023-02-092023-03-132023-04-132023-05-18青岛港铁矿石现货价格麦克粉(61%)普氏（62%Fe）(右)元/干吨美元/吨20002500300035004000450050002021-01-042021-02-022021-03-092021-04-082021-05-122021-06-102021-07-122021-08-102021-09-082021-10-182021-11-162021-12-152022-01-142022-02-172022-03-182022-04-202022-05-232022-06-222022-07-212022-08-192022-09-202022-10-262022-11-242022-12-232023-01-292023-02-272023-03-282023-04-27天津港一级冶金焦 8「上游市场情况」本周澳巴铁矿石发运总量增加据Mysteel统计，本期澳大利亚、巴西铁矿石发运总量为2502.0万吨，环比增加174.2万吨。5月15日-5月21日中国47港到港总量2291.9万吨，环比减少279.6万吨；中国45港到港总量2170万吨，环比减少232.8万吨；北方六港到港总量为1121.9万吨，环比增加38.0万吨。图9、澳巴铁矿石发运总量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图10、铁矿石到港量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院-800-600-400-2000200400600800100012001400160018002000220024002600280030002019-01-062019-02-242019-04-142019-06-022019-07-212019-09-082019-10-272019-12-152020-02-022020-03-222020-05-102020-06-282020-08-162020-10-042020-11-222021-01-102021-02-282021-04-182021-06-062021-07-252021-09-122021-10-312021-12-192022-02-062022-03-272022-05-152022-07-0