热卷产量及库存全降，期价先扬后抑「2022.9.30」作者：陈一兰期货投资咨询证号：Z0012698热轧卷板市场周报联系电话：0595-36208239关注我们获取 更 多 资 讯瑞达期货研究院业务咨询添加客服 目录1、周度要点小结2、期现市场3、产业情况 3来源：瑞达期货研究院「周度要点小结」本周热轧卷板期价先扬后抑。上半周走势坚挺，因唐山空气质量状况轻度污染，唐山钢企烧结限产30%-50%，供应减少预期对价格构成支撑，另外国庆长假前下游备库体量比上周表现更明显，去库幅度扩大也支撑热卷期价走高，但临近周末期价承压回调，因终端备货结束，叠加规避长假风险持仓明显下滑。后市展望：供应端，本期热卷周度产量下滑至299.77万吨，同环比均出现下降，另外国庆假期及二十大召开在即，华北地区钢厂高炉开工率或继续回落。需求端，热卷库存继续去化，由于市场和终端的投机心态以及刚需备库所致，但降幅相对有限。最后，国内稳经济增长政策将继续提振市场信心。综合来看，预计节后热卷或陷区间整理。 4「期现市场情况」本周期货价格先扬后抑本周，HC2301合约先扬后抑。本周，HC2301合约走势强于HC2305合约，30日价差为91元/吨，周环比+6元/吨。图1、热轧卷板主力合约收盘及持仓量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图2、热轧卷板跨期套利来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院010000020000030000040000050000060000070000080000090000035003600370038003900400041004200430044002022-07-012022-07-052022-07-072022-07-112022-07-132022-07-152022-07-192022-07-212022-07-252022-07-272022-07-292022-08-022022-08-042022-08-082022-08-102022-08-122022-08-162022-08-182022-08-222022-08-242022-08-262022-08-302022-09-012022-09-052022-09-072022-09-092022-09-142022-09-162022-09-202022-09-222022-09-262022-09-282022-09-30HC2301合约收盘价与持仓量持仓量oi收盘价close0204060801001202022-06-012022-06-072022-06-102022-06-152022-06-202022-06-232022-06-282022-07-012022-07-062022-07-112022-07-142022-07-192022-07-222022-07-272022-08-012022-08-042022-08-092022-08-122022-08-172022-08-222022-08-252022-08-302022-09-022022-09-072022-09-132022-09-162022-09-212022-09-262022-09-29HC2201-HC2205合约价差 5「期现市场情况」本周上期所热卷仓单增加，前20名持仓净空增加9月30日，上海期货交易所热卷仓单量为138926吨，周环比+25136吨。9月30日，热卷期货合约前二十名净持仓为净空56262张，较上一周增加33954张。图3、上期所热轧卷板仓单日报来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图4、热轧卷板期货合约前二十名净持仓来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院0500001000001500002000002500003000002020-01-022020-02-072020-03-062020-04-032020-05-072020-06-042020-07-062020-08-032020-08-312020-09-282020-11-032020-12-012020-12-292021-01-272021-03-032021-03-312021-04-292021-06-012021-06-302021-07-282021-08-252021-09-242021-10-292021-11-262021-12-242022-01-242022-02-282022-03-282022-04-272022-05-302022-06-282022-07-262022-08-232022-09-21库存期货:热轧卷板（吨）-140000-120000-100000-80000-60000-40000-20000020000400004000004500005000005500006000006500007000007500008000002021-12-232021-12-312022-01-112022-01-192022-01-272022-02-112022-02-212022-03-012022-03-092022-03-172022-03-252022-04-062022-04-142022-04-222022-05-052022-05-132022-05-232022-05-312022-06-092022-06-172022-06-272022-07-052022-07-132022-07-212022-07-292022-08-082022-08-162022-08-242022-09-012022-09-092022-09-202022-09-28热卷期货合约前20名净持仓净持仓（右）多头持仓空单持仓 6「期现市场情况」本周现货价格上调9月30日，上海热轧卷板5.75mm Q235现货报价为3950元/吨，周环比+20元/吨；全国均价为4049元/吨，周环比+11元/吨。本周，热卷现货价格弱于期货价格，30日基差为109元/吨，周环比-2元/吨。图5、全国各地区热轧卷板现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图6、热轧卷板主力合约期现基差来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院350037003900410043004500470049005100530055002022-01-042022-01-112022-01-182022-01-252022-01-302022-02-112022-02-182022-02-252022-03-042022-03-112022-03-182022-03-252022-04-012022-04-112022-04-182022-04-242022-04-292022-05-102022-05-172022-05-242022-05-312022-06-082022-06-152022-06-222022-06-292022-07-062022-07-132022-07-202022-07-272022-08-032022-08-102022-08-172022-08-242022-08-312022-09-072022-09-152022-09-222022-09-29全国各地区热卷现货报价价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:上海元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:杭州元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:武汉元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:广州元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:天津元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:全国元/吨-200-10001002003004005006007003000350040004500500055006000650070002021-01-042021-01-222021-02-182021-03-102021-03-302021-04-202021-05-132021-06-022021-06-232021-07-132021-08-022021-08-202021-09-092021-10-082021-10-282021-11-172021-12-072021-12-272022-01-172022-02-112022-03-032022-03-232022-04-142022-05-092022-05-272022-06-172022-07-072022-07-272022-08-162022-09-052022-09-26HC2301合约期现基差1月基差期货收盘价(1月交割连续):热轧卷板现货 7「上游市场情况」本周炉料铁矿石现货下调，焦炭现货价格持平9月30日，青岛港61%澳洲麦克粉矿报809元/干吨，周环比-3元/干吨。9月30日，天津港一级冶金焦现货报价2810元/吨，周环比+0元/吨。图7、铁矿石现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图8、焦炭现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院1000150020002500300035004000450050002020-01-022020-02-072020-03-092020-04-082020-05-122020-06-102020-07-102020-08-102020-09-082020-10-132020-11-112020-12-102021-01-112021-02-082021-03-162021-04-152021-05-192021-06-182021-07-192021-08-172021-09-152021-10-252021-11-232021-12-222022-01-212022-02-242022-03-252022-04-272022-05-302022-06-292022-07-282022-08-262022-09-27天津港一级冶金焦85105125145165185205225245500700900110013001500170019002021-01-042021-01-272021-02-262021-03-232021-04-162021-05-142021-06-082021-07-022021-07-272021-08-192021-09-132021-10-152021-11-092021-12-022021-12-272022-01-202022-02-212022-03-162022-04-122022-05-102022-06-022022-06-282022-07-212022-08-152022-09-07青岛港铁矿石现货价格麦克粉(61%)普氏（62%Fe）(右)元/干吨美元/吨 8「上游市场情况」本周澳巴铁矿石发运总量增加据Mysteel统计，本期澳大利亚、巴西铁矿石发运总量为2832.9万吨，环比增加291.1万吨。9月19日-9月25日中国47港到港总量2373.5万吨，环比减少145.7万吨；中国45港到港总量2308.2万吨，环比减少51.5万吨；北方六港到港总量为1230.4万吨，环比减少186.7万吨。图9、澳巴铁矿石发运总量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图10、铁矿石到港量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院-800-600-400-2000200400600800100012001400160018002000220024002600280030002019-01-062019-02-172019-03-312019-05-122019-06-232019-08-042019-09-152019-10-272019-12-082020-01-192020-03-012020-04-122020-05-242020-07-052020-08-162020-09-272020-11-082020-12-202021-01-312021-03-142021-04-252021-06-062021-07-182021-08-29202