表观需求由降转增，热卷先抑后扬「2023.09.28」研究员：蔡跃辉期货从业资格号F0251444期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101助理研究员：李秋荣期货从业资格号F03101823王凯慧期货从业资格号F03100511热轧卷板市场周报关注我们获取 更 多 资 讯瑞达期货研究院业务咨询添加客服 目录1、周度要点小结2、期现市场3、产业情况 3来源：瑞达期货研究院「周度要点小结」本周热卷期价先抑后扬，但重心还是下移。周初炉料下行压低炼钢成本，叠加下游主动备货意愿依旧不足。国庆假期前，补库需求有所释放，但释放量依旧低于预期。最后两天期价止跌反弹，由于山西关停4.3米焦炉，焦炭二轮提涨全面落地，炉料期现货价格走高支撑热卷上行。后市展望：供应端，热卷周度产量相对平稳，周度产能利用率维持至80%附近，但高于去年同期近5%。需求端，节前终端补库需求释放，表观消费量环比增加。最后，国内宏观面仍积极向好，只是热卷供应维持相对高位而需求释放一般，期价或陷入区间宽幅整理。操作策略：HC2401合约考虑于3730-3860区间低买高抛，止损参考50元/吨。 4「期现市场情况」本周期货价格先抑后扬本周，HC2401合约先抑后扬。本周，HC2401合约强于HC2405合约，28日价差为44元/吨，周环比-9元/吨。图1、热轧卷板主力合约收盘及持仓量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图2、热轧卷板跨期套利来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院02000004000006000008000001000000120000033003500370039004100430045002023-01-172023-01-312023-02-072023-02-142023-02-212023-02-282023-03-072023-03-142023-03-212023-03-282023-04-042023-04-122023-04-192023-04-262023-05-082023-05-152023-05-222023-05-292023-06-052023-06-122023-06-192023-06-282023-07-052023-07-122023-07-192023-07-262023-08-022023-08-092023-08-162023-08-232023-08-302023-09-062023-09-132023-09-202023-09-27HC2401合约收盘价与持仓量持仓量oi收盘价close0204060801001201401601802023-06-012023-06-062023-06-092023-06-142023-06-192023-06-262023-06-292023-07-042023-07-072023-07-122023-07-172023-07-202023-07-252023-07-282023-08-022023-08-072023-08-102023-08-152023-08-182023-08-232023-08-282023-08-312023-09-052023-09-082023-09-132023-09-182023-09-212023-09-26HC2401-HC2405合约价差 5「期现市场情况」本周上期所热卷仓单持平，前20名持仓净多增加9月28日，上海期货交易所热卷仓单量为269102吨，周环比持平。9月28日，热卷期货合约前二十名净持仓为多64372张，较上一周增加25542张。图3、上期所热轧卷板仓单日报来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图4、热轧卷板期货合约前二十名净持仓来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院0500001000001500002000002500003000002020-01-092020-02-242020-03-312020-05-122020-06-172020-07-272020-09-012020-10-152020-11-202020-12-282021-02-032021-03-182021-04-262021-06-042021-07-132021-08-182021-09-272021-11-092021-12-152022-01-212022-03-072022-04-142022-05-252022-07-012022-08-082022-09-142022-10-272022-12-022023-01-102023-02-222023-03-302023-05-112023-06-162023-07-262023-08-31库存期货:热轧卷板（吨）-150000-100000-5000005000010000040000050000060000070000080000090000010000001100000120000013000002022-01-042022-01-272022-02-282022-03-232022-04-192022-05-172022-06-102022-07-052022-07-282022-08-222022-09-152022-10-172022-11-092022-12-022022-12-272023-01-202023-02-212023-03-162023-04-112023-05-092023-06-012023-06-282023-07-212023-08-152023-09-07热卷期货合约前20名净持仓净持仓（右）多头持仓空单持仓 6「期现市场情况」本周现货价格下调9月28日，上海热轧卷板5.75mm Q235现货报价为3810元/吨，周环比-40元/吨；全国均价为3839元/吨，周环比-116元/吨。本周，热卷现货价格强于期货价格，28日基差为15元/吨，周环比+28元/吨。图5、全国各地区热轧卷板现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图6、热轧卷板主力合约期现基差来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院3300380043004800530058002022-01-042022-01-182022-01-302022-02-182022-03-042022-03-182022-04-012022-04-182022-04-292022-05-172022-05-312022-06-152022-06-292022-07-132022-07-272022-08-102022-08-242022-09-072022-09-222022-10-112022-10-252022-11-082022-11-222022-12-062022-12-202023-01-042023-01-182023-02-062023-02-202023-03-062023-03-202023-04-032023-04-182023-05-042023-05-172023-05-312023-06-142023-06-292023-07-132023-07-272023-08-102023-08-242023-09-072023-09-21全国各地区热卷现货报价价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:上海元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:杭州元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:武汉元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:广州元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:天津元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:全国元/吨-200-10001002003004005006007003000350040004500500055006000650070002021-01-042021-02-042021-03-162021-04-192021-05-252021-06-282021-07-292021-08-312021-10-122021-11-122021-12-152022-01-182022-02-252022-03-302022-05-092022-06-102022-07-132022-08-152022-09-162022-10-262022-11-282022-12-292023-02-082023-03-132023-04-142023-05-222023-06-262023-07-272023-08-29HC2401合约期现基差1月基差期货收盘价(1月交割连续):热轧卷板现货 7「上游市场情况」本周炉料铁矿石现货上调，焦炭现货价格上调9月28日，青岛港61%澳洲麦克粉矿报986元/干吨，周环比+2元/干吨。9月28日，天津港一级冶金焦现货报价2440元/吨，周环比+100元/吨。图7、铁矿石现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图8、焦炭现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院65851051251451651852052252454006008001000120014001600180020002021-01-052021-02-092021-03-232021-04-282021-06-072021-07-132021-08-172021-09-232021-11-042021-12-092022-01-142022-02-252022-04-012022-05-132022-06-202022-07-252022-08-292022-10-112022-11-152022-12-202023-02-012023-03-082023-04-132023-05-232023-06-292023-08-032023-09-07青岛港铁矿石现货价格麦克粉(61%)普氏（62%Fe）(右)元/干吨美元/吨18002300280033003800430048002021-01-042021-02-022021-03-092021-04-082021-05-122021-06-102021-07-122021-08-102021-09-082021-10-182021-11-162021-12-152022-01-142022-02-172022-03-182022-04-202022-05-232022-06-222022-07-212022-08-192022-09-202022-10-262022-11-242022-12-232023-01-292023-02-272023-03-282023-04-272023-05-312023-06-302023-07-312023-08-292023-09-27天津港一级冶金焦 8「上游市场情况」本期中国47港到港总量增加据Mysteel统计，本期澳大利亚、巴西铁矿石发运总量为2463.3万吨，环比减少134.9万吨。9月18日-9月24日中国47港到港总量2458.4万吨，环比增加117.8万吨；中国45港到港总量2335.8万吨，环比增加135.8万吨；北方六港到港总量为1070.9万吨，环比增加83.8万吨。图9、澳巴铁矿石发运总量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图10、铁矿石到港量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院-800-600-400-2000200400600800100012001400160018002000220024002600280030002019-01-272019-03-312019-06-022019-08-042019-10-062019-12-082020-02-092020-04-122020-06-142020-08-162020-10-182020-12-202021-02-212021-04-252021-06-272021-08-292021-10-312022-01-022022-03-062022-05-082022-07-102022-09-112022-11-132023-01-152023-03-192023