2023年中国政府工作报告：宏观、投资策略及行业分析

1 2023: 202335 2 2023 3 6 12 14 16 17 / 18 19 1 20 23 3 202335 2023 202335202252023 20225 20223%12065.5%2%17.7%2.8%1.377420222.41750051215.2%706.2% 12022 GDP, % 5.5 3.0 , 11.0 12.06 , % 5.5 5.5 , 1.3 1.37 % 2.8 2.8 , % 3.0 2.0 : 20222023 2023GDP5.0% 20235.0%20225.5%22023 4 20232023GDP5.0%5.0% 22023 GDP, % 5.0 5.0 , 12.0 12.0 , % 5.5 5.0 GDP, % 3.0 3.0 , % 3.0 2.0 : 2023 3%2.8%3.83.65 202320232023GDP3.0% 2023202315LPR3.55%4.10%2023RRR20236.65006.89863.7% 20231200 5.5%2022100 5 2022202212065.5% 20233.0%202220232023CPI2.0%20222023CPI2023PPI 20224.1% 0.0% 2023 35.0% 20232023 6 : “” “” “” 7 20232023 1 3.8“” 2 3 “” 4 CPTPP 5 6 7 8 8 12016-2022R&D 2023 1 2R&D R&DGDP R&D 2023 1 “”2020350“” 50 30,870 10.4% 8.0%9.0%10.0%11.0%12.0%13.0%14.0%15.0%14,00016,00018,00020,00022,00024,00026,00028,00030,00032,0002016201720182019202020212022R&D() 2016-22 CAGR 12.0% 2.10% 2.12% 2.14% 2.24% 2.41% 2.43% 2.55% 2.00%2.10%2.20%2.30%2.40%2.50%2.60%2016201720182019202020212022 9 3/ : 202020224.5%5050 5.7%50 450 : 8.4% 8.4% 9.2% 9.0% 10.4% 10.3% 8.8% 9.5% 8.9% 5.6% 6.6% 5.7% 4.9% 4.9% 5.4% 6.6% 5.3% 5.3% 6.1% 6.1% 5.1% 0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42020Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42021Q12022Q22022Q32022Q4202250 50 3.8 4.3 5.4 5.6 5.6 7.6 7.5 7.1 7.1 6.4 6.1 6.2 7.5 8.9 11.2 11.1 11.1 15.4 16.2 15.8 15.8 15.0 14.4 14.5 0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.016.018.0Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42020Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42021Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42022(%) (%) 10 5 : 5050202020229.2%50505060% 650 : 5020225.5%10.2%506.2%12.8% 4.8 5.6 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.9 7.1 6.1 6.1 5.3 5.2 5.7 9.1 10.5 12.3 11.8 11.8 13.4 14.4 12.7 12.7 11.5 11.7 12.7 0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.016.0Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42020Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42021Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42022(%) (%) 5.8 5.8 5.4 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.7 5.3 5.0 8.9 8.9 9.3 9.9 10.2 10.2 10.5 10.3 9.9 0.02.04.06.08.010.012.0Q4 2020Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2021Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2022(%) (%) 11 75050 5020 5020 300750 13,673 5.11% 688599 4,035 5.65% 300760 3,184 10.91% 688223 2,637 6.50% 300207 2,605 5.39% 688180 2,282 51.40% 300433 2,413 5.62% 688036 1,975 3.98% 300124 2,163 10.38% 688561 1,850 29.24% 300014 1,887 6.35% 688187 1,823 11.81% 300274 1,471 4.75% -- 1,553 3.70% 300450 1,349 9.57% 688256 1,395 182.82% 300003 1,179 12.05% 688111 1,344 36.30% 300601 1,097 28.57% 688099 1,160 19.52% 300142 1,096 21.74% 688271 1,048 14.45% 300033 1,067 29.98% 688220 1,028 48.13% 300118 1,026 3.82% 688012 863 21.16% 300059 961 7.38% 688521 834 33.32% 300073 783 4.56% 688396 830 8.34% 300136 697 8.30% 688041 745 32.23% 300223 659 11.56% 688981 733 10.08% 300122 632 1.72% 688185 651 20.44% 300316 617 6.54% 688772 623 6.03% 300661 554 17.77% 688536 605 31.76% 10 9.87% 10 35.09% 20 10.60% 20 28.84% 21-40 5.34% 21-40 8.25% / 1233 1233 12 2022-23 2022 2023 , , , 2022-23 13  2023,,,, 2022,2022, ,1.63%,10,,,,,,,  ,,,,2023,20232, 20212.08%20221.91%20238-15, 14 2022-23 2022 2023 -- 2022-23  51001-211.6%124.26%1.3715%  3080% 15 REITsREITsREIT 16 2022-23 2022 2023 2022-23   2022956 17 2022-23 2022 2023 3% 3% 2022-23  3%  5.0%5.5% 18 / : 2022-23 2022 2023 2022-23        19 : 2022-23 2022 2023 5G 5G 2022-23  5G20225G231.22023605G20235G291.220225G5.6133.3%202337.0%5G5GARPU  202520355GIPv65G  2023  5G20235G5G 20 1 2021 2022 2023 : : 30% , : : , : , : 21 100 3% 3% 3% / : “”7% : : : : : 10% 5G 5G 5G 2021-23 22 - yaoshaohua@abci.com.hk - philipchan@abci.com.hk - johannesau@abci.com.hk - stevechow@abci.com.hk - kennethtung@abci.com.hk / - paulpan@abci.com.hk - rickylai@abci.com.hk 23 / /,12, (9%) (-9%)<(9%) <(-9%) =12+ =20062006-228.4% ().()() 2023 :813 : (852)2868 2183