五矿期货原油月报宏观因素影响油价20221009能源化工组黄秀仕投资咨询号：Z0013720huangxs@wkqh.cn0755-23375159从业资格号：F0290469 xVuXoWpYjWpOpNoNtPtOoQbR8QbRnPoOnPpNiNoPoOlOmNtM7NnMpRxNtPnQxNmQrQ1 月度主要观点 月度要点小结◆库存：上周美国原油、汽油和馏分油库存下降。美国原油库存减少140万桶，至4.292亿桶，预期为增加210万桶。当周在俄克拉荷马州库欣仓库的原油库存增加27.3万桶。美国汽油库存减少470万桶，至2.0746亿桶，预期为减少130万桶。包括柴油和取暖油的馏分油库存下降340万桶，至1.1092亿桶，预期为减少140万桶。燃料库存下降的原因是成品油供应全面增加，成品汽油供应显著增加。上周美国原油净进口量下滑40.7万桶/日。◆供应：上周美国石油产量1,200万桶。拜登政府与国际能源署正在逐步释放6,000万桶储备,美国6个月内释放1.8亿桶石油储备。OPEC+月会议就进一步增加产量达成一致，月均增产65万桶/天。◆需求：当周炼厂原油加工量增加21万桶/日，炼厂产能利用率增加0.7个百分点。成品油供应增加0.3%，或6.1万桶/日。8月份，原油加工量降幅有所收窄，加工原油5366万吨，同比下降65%，降幅比上月收窄2.3个百分点，日均加工173.1万吨。1-8月份，加工原油43489万吨，同比下降6.3%。◆观点:乌克兰局势导致俄罗斯受到制裁，影响到俄罗斯原油供应，俄罗斯原油产量占全球原油供应的10%，出口量为500万桶/天，如果全球失去这部分俄罗斯原油供应，供需格局将会收到巨大影响，供需严重失衡，因此油价目前呈现巨大风险溢价为俄罗斯供应不确定性定价。相反，如果局势一旦稳定，俄罗斯供应不受影响，那么这部分油价的风险溢价将会迅速消失。 全球供需平衡表JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecSupply (million barrels per day) (a) OECD ......................................................................................31.0728.3431.1830.7830.9030.8731.4531.3130.6732.0732.3932.2331.2431.3432.1931.9431.7031.9332.3432.7532.7632.9133.6033.64 U.S. (50 States) .......................................................................18.5116.0818.6319.0119.2619.2119.1919.1818.7219.7220.0519.9719.2319.0819.9919.9620.0320.3720.2720.4320.5020.6021.1221.12 Canada .................................................................................5.725.515.625.245.335.525.655.475.345.705.785.565.495.735.765.625.415.565.675.765.735.775.895.90 Mexico .................................................................................1.901.931.951.951.951.941.931.861.901.911.931.931.931.911.901.881.881.901.901.901.891.871.861.85 Other OECD .............................................................................4.954.824.994.584.364.194.684.804.724.734.634.774.604.624.544.474.384.104.504.664.654.674.734.77 Non-OECD ..................................................................................62.8162.2062.6663.2364.0664.6665.6065.2266.0366.0066.2966.0666.8267.6167.2066.6767.0067.2567.9968.5168.7368.5668.3567.99 OPEC ...................................................................................30.6130.1230.2830.3630.8631.4132.1532.1532.5632.8333.1333.3533.4434.1133.7234.0233.5933.7534.0134.8434.6634.4634.3034.45 Crude Oil Portion ...................................................................25.3224.8825.0325.0025.4626.0226.7226.7127.1127.3827.7627.8727.8228.5828.2228.5928.1028.3028.5329.3429.2029.0128.7928.86 Other Liquids (b) ...................................................................5.295.245.265.375.405.405.435.445.455.465.375.485.625.535.515.435.495.455.485.505.465.455.525.59 Former Soviet Union ....................................................................13.3513.4013.5213.6713.6713.6413.7013.4113.7714.1714.3214.3314.4014.4414.3413.2013.5013.5813.8313.3613.5413.9414.0113.70 China ..................................................................................5.004.955.035.005.025.074.995.005.044.964.974.885.215.125.205.175.165.235.075.145.165.195.215.16 Other Non-OECD .........................................................................13.8513.7313.8214.1914.5014.5314.7414.6514.6614.0313.8813.5013.7813.9413.9414.2814.7414.7015.0815.1715.3614.9714.8314.67 Total World Supply ........................................................................93.8890.5493.8494.0194.9595.5297.0496.5296.7098.0798.6898.2998.0798.9599.3998.6098.7099.19100.33101.26101.50101.47101.95101.62 Non-OPEC Supply ...........................................................................63.2760.4263.5663.6464.0964.1164.8964.3764.1465.2365.5564.9464.6364.8465.6664.5965.1065.4466.3366.4266.8467.0067.6567.17Consumption (million barrels per day) (c) OECD ......................................................................................41.8742.0243.8343.3643.4045.6845.6645.8246.1446.2246.7547.6844.6546.7746.2344.7845.1846.0545.4746.0746.0646.6846.9547.33 U.S. (50 States) .......................................................................18.8117.7019.1319.7420.0520.5920.1720.5720.1420.3820.5720.6619.7320.4420.5119.9620.0820.7720.0320.5320.4120.6920.8620.87 U.S. Territories .......................................................................0.190.190.250.160.210.200.190.210.180.240.190.160.200.200.260.160.220.210.200.220.190.250.220.18 Canada .................................................................................2.172.152.242.042.102.352.462.442.372.272.392.332.292.392.102.112.062.402.412.472.442.442.482.49 Europe .................................................................................11.2712.0712.5612.3612.2013.4613.7713.6614.2314.1613.8713.7912.4313.6113.4613.2613.3813.6113.6713.5113.8914.0713.7313.52 Japan ..................................................................................3.813.873.623.252.923.053.113.103.313.333.514.133.