五矿期货原油月报宏观因素影响油价20220806能 源 化 工组黄秀仕huangxs@wkqh.cn0755-23375159F0290469从业资格号：Z0013720投资咨询号： CONTENTS 1 月度主要观点 月度要点小结近期整体商品的下跌主要是宏观因素导致的，从6月10号美国公布超预期的通胀CPI数据，从而导致6月16号美联储的超预期加息75个基点，再到现在市场出现了经济衰退预期，这一系列的事件发生的时间点都与商品下跌的时间节点吻合，因此有理由相信这次下跌是宏观因素导致的。7月13日美国CPI再次超预期同比9.1%，原油7月14见底，市场对美联储继续大幅加息100个基点的预期下降，7月28日美联储如期加息75基点，并表示在适当时候会放慢加息步伐，商品全面反弹。原油长期看肯定是要下跌的，但是就短期来看基本面还算比较强的，分几点看：1.欧美还在不断制裁俄罗斯石油供应，最近欧洲还禁运三分二俄罗斯原油涉及170万桶/天。2.海外成品油利润历史新高，汽柴油的利润达到惊人的40美元一桶，这是对原油很大的支撑。3.中国的需求复苏，实际上二季度中国需求极差，但是现在确定性的在复苏，这部分需求增量不容小觑4.美国正值夏季消费旺季，商业库存、战略库存都处于历史低位，成品油库存更低。5.俄罗斯现在在断供欧洲的天然气，欧洲天然气暴涨，柴油有一定的替代作用，这也会拉动原油的需求的。6.现在市场怀疑OPEC没有闲置产能了，6月28日，法国总统马克龙在七国集团(G7)会议上向美国总统拜登表示，阿联酋总统Mohammed bin Zayed电话上对他说，不仅阿联酋没有闲置产能，而且沙特阿拉伯也只有另外15万桶/日的闲置产能。 原油基本面评估估值驱动基差利润测算产量库存需求数据美元/桶0元/桶万桶/日万桶开工率：%多空评分00000简评小结基本面评估 交易策略建议策略类型操作建议盈亏比推荐周期核心驱动逻辑推荐等级首次提出时间单边建议观望01个月宏观因素影响油价，暂时观望。★☆☆☆☆2022-06套利交易策略建议 全球供需平衡表JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecSupply (million barrels per day) (a) OECD ......................................................................................30.9728.1230.9730.6730.8330.7231.3831.2230.5632.0232.3732.1831.3131.4032.2532.0732.1832.4532.6332.7932.9633.0033.6333.74 U.S. (50 States) .......................................................................18.4015.8618.4218.9019.1919.0719.1319.0918.6119.6720.0319.9219.2319.0819.9819.9220.0620.3220.3820.5520.6320.6221.0821.15 Canada .................................................................................5.725.515.625.245.335.525.655.475.345.705.785.565.495.735.765.765.745.765.725.755.725.765.885.89 Mexico .................................................................................1.901.931.951.951.951.941.931.861.901.911.931.931.931.911.901.881.891.901.901.901.891.871.861.85 Other OECD .............................................................................4.954.824.994.584.364.194.684.804.724.734.634.774.664.684.624.514.484.474.634.604.724.754.814.85 Non-OECD ..................................................................................62.8262.2162.6763.2464.0764.6765.6165.2366.0466.0166.3066.0766.8467.6167.2266.7667.0067.4568.2868.9369.0268.5068.2267.70 OPEC ...................................................................................30.6130.1230.2830.3630.8631.4132.1532.1532.5632.8333.1333.3533.4434.1133.7234.0233.5833.8634.3634.5934.5234.5234.6634.75 Crude Oil Portion ...................................................................25.3224.8825.0325.0025.4626.0226.7226.7127.1127.3827.7627.8727.8228.5828.2228.5928.1528.4128.8829.1029.0529.0729.1429.16 Other Liquids (b) ...................................................................5.295.245.265.375.405.405.435.445.455.465.375.485.625.535.515.435.435.455.485.505.465.455.525.59 Former Soviet Union ....................................................................13.3513.4013.5213.6713.6713.6413.7013.4113.7714.1714.3214.3314.4014.4414.3413.2113.5013.6813.8714.0013.9413.7913.5513.14 China ..................................................................................5.004.955.035.005.025.074.995.005.044.964.974.885.215.125.205.185.185.175.115.145.175.185.205.16 Other Non-OECD .........................................................................13.8713.7513.8314.2114.5114.5414.7614.6614.6814.0513.8913.5213.7913.9513.9614.3514.7514.7414.9515.1915.4015.0014.8114.65 Total World Supply ........................................................................93.7990.3493.6493.9194.8995.3996.9996.4596.6098.0398.6798.2698.1599.0299.4798.8299.1899.89100.91101.72101.98101.50101.85101.44 Non-OPEC Supply ...........................................................................63.1860.2263.3663.5564.0363.9764.8464.3064.0565.1965.5464.9164.7164.9165.7564.8065.6066.0466.5567.1367.4766.9767.1966.69Consumption (million barrels per day) (c) OECD ......................................................................................41.6541.7643.8943.1243.4745.6745.4245.7946.2745.7846.8247.8344.6846.8446.2544.9745.1745.7245.9146.3546.0846.3246.6646.99 U.S. (50 States) .......................................................................18.6017.4419.2019.4620.0920.5419.8920.5120.2219.8920.5920.7619.7320.4420.5119.9620.4720.4620.4120.7620.4020.7120.9920.94 U.S. Territories .......................................................................0.190.190.250.160.210.200.190.210.180.240.190.160.200.200.260.160.220.210.200.220.190.250.220.18 Canada .................................................................................2.242.232.312.122.172.432.542.512.452.342.472.412.362.482.182.322.382.442.482.542.492.462.492.49 Europe .................................................................................11.2212.0212.5112.3112.1513.4013.7213.6114.1814.1113.8213.7412.3713.5513.3713.3813.0713.5413.6413.4813.8613.6513.3113.10 Japan ...........................................................