PVC日报：市场预期悲观，PVC价格弱势寻底

请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明策略摘要截止7.11日，因受全球衰退预期影响，PVC价格仍处于向下寻底的过程中。结合需求端看，全国各地商品房销售面积处于回落，地产投资增速下行。导致需求偏弱，且目前尚无重大利好驱动，PVC价格仍处于弱势寻底过程中。核心观点■市场分析期货市场：截止7.11日PVC主力收盘6582元/吨（+1.07%）；前二十位主力多头持仓：336793（-13358），空头持仓：409078（-14580），净空持仓：72285（-1249）。现货：截至7.11日华东（电石法）报价：6600元/吨（-170）；华南（电石法）报价：6710元/吨（-155）。兰炭：截止7.11日陕西1550元/吨（0）。电石：截止7.11日华北4225元/吨（0）。观点：受全球衰退预期影响，国内PVC价格跟随下跌；现货市场普遍观望，采购意愿不佳；期货运行价格弱势寻底。■策略中性偏空■风险及关注美联储加息预期；原油走势以及地产数据情况。期货研究报告|PVC日报2022-07-12市场预期悲观，PVC价格弱势寻底研究院能源化工组研究员潘翔0755-82767160panxiang@htfc.com从业资格号：F3023104投资咨询号：Z0013188陈莉020-83901030cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421梁宗泰020-83901005liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616康远宁0755-23991175kangyuanning@htfc.com从业资格号：F3049404投资咨询号：Z0015842投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 PVC日报丨2022/7/11请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明目录策略摘要..............................................................................................................................................................................................1核心观点..............................................................................................................................................................................................1图表图1:华南基差丨单位：元/吨...........................................................................................................................................................3图2:华东基差丨单位：元/吨...........................................................................................................................................................3图3:华东-西北-450丨单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................................3图4:华南-华东-50丨单位：元/吨...................................................................................................................................................3图5:华北-西北-250丨单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................................3图6:V1-V5丨单位：元/吨...............................................................................................................................................................3图7:V5-V9丨单位：元/吨...............................................................................................................................................................4图8:V9-V1丨单位：元/吨...............................................................................................................................................................4图9:西北自有电石PVC成本丨单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................4图10:山东外购电石PVC成本丨单位：元/吨...............................................................................................................................4图11:西北自有电石综合氯碱利润丨单位：元/吨.........................................................................................................................4图12:山东外购电石综合氯碱利润丨单位：元/吨.........................................................................................................................4图13:电石法开工率丨单位：%......................................................................................................................................................5图14:乙烯法开工率丨单位：%......................................................................................................................................................5图15:西北自有电石PVC利润丨单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................5图16:山东外购电石PVC利润丨单位：元/吨...............................................................................................................................5图17:PVC华北下游开工率丨单位：%..........................................................................................................................................5图18:PVC华南下游开工率丨单位：%..........................................................................................................................................5图19:PVC华东下游开工率丨单位：%..........................................................................................................................................6图20:PVC铺地制品出口丨单位：万吨..........................................................................................................................................6图21:PVC社会库存（卓创）丨单位：万吨...................................................................................................................................6图22:PVC社会库存（V风）丨单位：万吨..................................................................................................................................6图23:PVC上游库存丨单位：万吨..................................................................................................................................................6图24:PVC华北及华南下游库存丨单位：万吨.......................................................................................................................