专题报告：消费结构大幅优化，疫情造就钢材消费危中有机

 黹㲊㠻〖|䓉㳃⡉⷇2022-04-18 㵗䓫䓪䁐䄖㹒䓫ⷒᷛ 䐅チ㿎㋪ᱟ2011ᱠ1289子 䁱(一)䊛 彳㩌ゑᄍ⤥䔊 㶖乙㲯 ⪴䄖䓫ⷒ子ᷛF3057899 㵗䓫䓪䁐子ᷛZ0016256 wanghaitao@htfc.com 㑋㻖㦬ᷛ 㶖䇃㹅 010-64405663 wangyingwu@htfc.com ⪴䄖䓫ⷒ子ᷛF3054463 㪋䇡ⶶ shenyonggang@htfc.com ⪴䄖䓫ⷒ子ᷛF3063990 㵗䓫䓪䁐子ᷛZ0016576 㞎尯 pengxin@htfc.com ⪴䄖䓫ⷒ子ᷛF3066607 䝘䐟㞕 kuangzhipeng@htfc.com ⪴䄖䓫ⷒ子ᷛF3056360 㵗䓫䓪䁐子ᷛZ0016171 䈁⤫䊧 yucaiyun@htfc.com ⪴䄖䓫ⷒ子ᷛF03096767 㼜Ⳳᇱ⹚⫔ⴚ䇦鼻 䅀㤊䋍(金)⶷⤥㼜Ⳳ㸄䐱䇱〛 䓉㳃䍋䄋ᷛ 1᱃ᄍ䑟䄖⶷⤥㼜Ⳳ㦵䍝⟌⡻ᄒ㩞᷍⶷⤥㼜Ⳳᇱ⹚䄲ⳃ㪛㘘㻵⢅鼻᱄⺞㦆㧞㬏㛋᷍䐱⺛(가)イ㦂⭤(協)⫔⭥⧪⹇᷍ⱙ䄵⭹⥛巛〚ᄍ㸋⫛⢎⭥ᄍ䑟䄖㬨㸳⺛(가)イⳃ䍚⭥䐹䄋㵧Ⱀ㑇䐏䄜᷍ᄍ䑟䄖㬨⺞㦆゙㬏㛋㸳⺛⶷㳛⹅䄖⭥屮㾥㤞Ⱀ㑇᱄䊻⺛コ䇱䅃⮘ᄮⳠ⭹⥛㾱䄖⭥⡔(라)㻣᷍䓵㦆㛋7䊣12月㬝᷍䊻Ⳡ⭹⥛㾱䄖ⷘ㼏(가)イ㭞(資)⫔ⴚ㻣㾱᷍⭹⥛㾱䄖䇤⶷䄲㘘㻵㻣ᅨ᷍䊅ェ水㠻㸳⺛⶷⤥㼜Ⳳᇱ⹚。⨗㻷㻵䑙ᇱ⹚⢅鼻᱄ 2᱃⭹⥛㻣㾱᷍〚ᄍⰵ⨆᷍⨗㋻䇱㶜㸍⧷ⷀ䋗⧅᱄Ⳡ⭹⥛ᷛ㦆㛋7䊣12月㬝᷍Ⳡ⭹⥛㾱䄖㭞(資)ⰰ䁣㬞㻣⮙᷍⤠⳷Ⳡ㡔⨗㻷㒘Ⱀ㾵ⴈ㻶᱄㘇ⰵ䊞䁾䊞㑳⭥㆕䍦㾯㬧᷍䎟ⶏ䔗⨗䎟⥀⮘䎜᷍⪺㆙Ⳡ⭹⥛㾱䄖㾯⧪㑝㾵䁎⿘巛ᄇ㋖ⳃ䍚᱄⡄䍰㾵䓂Ⳡᄐⰵ⨆⤠⳷Ⳡ⭹⥛㾣12月⹅⫙㎕⭥㻣ᅨⴈ㻶᱄᱑䅓⧨㬊⥀᱒㻣᷍ⷘ⭹㵉⺞⤜㵍㬷Ⱟ⳦㯪Ⳡ⭹⥛㬱⧂᱄〚ᄍᷛ(가)イ㻣㾱䁚㑇ᇟ⫔᷍〚ᄍ㦵㸋㛇䐽㠻⮘ᄮ䐹䄋㬷Ⱟ᱄䊅ェ〚ᄍ㦌㛋ᄐ⧫㘘㻵䋗⧅㲍㬧᷍㵱⭸䔘䇤㘘㻵᱄䐧䋍䄖ᷛ䐧䋍䄖⢎㻷㩱ゲ᷍㦵䇱㶜㼓大ⳃ䍚᱄⨗㋻ᷛ⨗㋻㸍⧷ⷀ䋗⧅᷍䅀㤊水᷍䐱⺛䔘㸋㦌㤓䐧䋍䄖䐱㾥⭥⭹㸜⤜ⰰ䋗㣠᱄ 3᱃ⱎ㸻䍞䎚⡍ⳃ᷍㆙䄜⤞㣠鼻㸳⺛⹅䄖㠘⨗㋻⫔⺛⭹㸜᱄䊻ⱎ㸻䍞䎚㸕⭤⭞ᇲ㉗䄵㣑᷍㚽䊕㸫㳃ᄐ㬨㿝䊻㝘䐿㵘Ⰶ⭥᱑⫐㚇㋬㏜㯚䐏ᄡ᱒᱄ⱎ㸻㸋㦌㤓㳛䊋㯹⨗㋻⫔⺛᷍ⰵ㦌㤓㳛䊋㯹⹊ⷙ䐢⹹䐹䄋᱄ⱎ㔿㯚巛㸻㋬㎝己ェ㼓㦌㤓⨗㋻㑬1䄻ⰷ⭥㳛䊋㯹᱄㧈⺜㋼⨞⨗㋻⭞䐱⺛⭥㩰㭗⥛㠘᷍䋓ⱎ㔿㯚巛㸻㋬㎝己ェ㼓⨞䐱⺛㶃⭥㦌㤓㡅㰜⭹㤙⨗㋻㑬7700ⱁ㶓ⰷ㳛䊋㯹᷍䍝⭞㦌㤓⨞䐱᱃ⱎ᱃㸻㡅㰜⺛コ⪷⶷⥛㑠⭥11%᱄ⱎ㸻䍞䎚㬚⭤㸳⺛⶷㳛⥛㠘䐒ᄢ⨗㋻巛ヅᄢ⨗㋻⡜Ⱀ䋗ゴ᷍㆙䄜⤞㣠鼻㸳⺛⹅䄖㠘⨗㋻⫔⺛⭹㸜᱄ 4᱃᱑㧞䐹᱒䁚㑇巛䅀㤊⨆〘᷍䎟⥀ⳃ㑇䄋㬫Ⱙ⧍㣑᱄(가)イ㩰䊻㦂⭤⧪ら⭥㵍㬒᷍⡹㿌㋕⭞㸳⺛(가)イⳃ䍚㘇㑺㿉㤔㬶㰖᱃⹊ⷙ⨆〘巛䊅㠻䓋㧖㧞䐹䁚㑇᱄ⷘⳞ㘇䄋〞れ㵧⨗䇱㏜䇻(가)イ㸩Ⰹ⭥䎟⥀᷍䎟⥀ⳃ㑇㬫⭒㋠㣑᱄ヂ⧷䄵(가)イᄍ㪉㸋䐱㾥㬨⭔⭥〚⡟㔘㼀⭥䄋㤔᷍㦌⭔Ⱍ䄋(監)(ᄑ)。㪒⺂⧚䐕㾱᱄〖⡳䎟⥀㒊』㬫Ⱙ᷍㒘Ⱀ㾵⧫㑍㿙⳦㯪㲍㬧᱄䅀㤊ⳡ㋹㚲Ⱙゴ⫔᷍᱑Ⱀ㲍㤆㒄᱒䎟⥀⡄䐩㿓⡄(가)イ᱄⪴⺛㚻㶃䅀㤊ⳡ㋹(가)䂊㎕㋕᷍乙㶃ⰵ䇻䅀㤊㲪㠞䄵水᷍䋍⧪㑬(가)イ⨗㻷ᇟ⧅㬒ヅ⭥㵄䐮᱄(金)㠶㵉㘒䐻ⱙ䁵᷍᱑㾣⹻᱒⤜㔼Ⱏ㾵ⱁ㣠᷍㰝㦵㬨㸦䐏㩌⢅⭥⪌㦟⤂᱄䅓⪬(金)⭒㻣ⱙ䁵᷍⭒㣑㰚⤪㦂⭥䎟⥀㦵㬨㸳⺛㸩Ⰹ㪈。㪛⥛䐩㿓巛⡄䍰㦌㛋(가)イⳃ䍚⭥䔏䇦Ⳟ➙᱄ 5᱃䅀㤊⨆〘᷍㼜Ⳳ䐮水᷍⹅䄖㠘㼜Ⳳ䇱㶜䊻䅀㤊水⨗㻷㘘㻵⭥⿘⡩䔀㣠᱄㆒㛋1-3䊣⳾᷍⺛㚻⪷⶷㼜Ⳳ大䇻䊅㠻᱄(資)黹㲊㠻〖䁱(一)䊛⥃㰄᷍䄜ゟⰩ⺛㚻㼜Ⳳ㎼ェ㵍⡩㆗ᅨ3.0%᱄ 黹㲊㠻〖|䓉㳃⡉⷇ 2022-04-182 / 25 䎟⥀⧷㿙㼓大㻣᷍䄜ゟⰩ㼜Ⳳ大䇻䊅㠻᱄㚠㣑᷍䅀㤊巛⭹⥛㬨䇑㼍㼜Ⳳ⭥䔏⫔㵰㎼䅓㯹᷍䅀㤊⭥㕜䁴巛ⳡ㋹㚲Ⱙ᷍Ⱝ㠻㦵ᄐⰵ㼜Ⳳ⥛㪛㘘㻵䇑㼍᱄⭌䊻⺛コ᱑㣠⪭ゅ᱒䎟⥀巛䅀㤊᱑Ⱀ㲍㤆㒄᱒䎟⥀㻣᷍ⶕ⹅ⶕ⥛⫙㎕⭥㼜Ⳳ⿘⡩䔀㣠᷍ᄐ䊻⤜(五)⭥ᄐ㎕⧪㸋㻷㬖᱄㚠㣑᷍⺛㚻㶃㤊㌗ⶕ䊴䁰㉟᱄䅀㤊᱃䍞䎚巛Ⳡ⭹⥛㾱䄖㸄〛᷍䊻ⱁ䐹䅓㯹䇑㼍㻣᷍㆒㛋⭥㼜Ⳳ㚲䄵䊅㝱᱄⹊ⷙⶶ㾵㻣᷍䊎㑰㆕㦒⧪㸋㾱䄖䔏⫔䐃ᇱ᱄⪴䎜㳆㌃⫇㎕㋕᷍᱑㲝䊋㯹᱒䓽㌃⫇䄲(가)⪇䇻㵍㠻㉙ⰵ⭮㌃⫇᱄㧈工ᇲ㉗᱑㲝䊋㯹᱒Ⱝ㦒㸫㳃᷍ᄐ⧪㸋㾱䄖㿉䄋䐹㬴⭥䔏⫔㻷㬖㸫㳃᱄ 䓼㩰㰚㭗᷍㚠㣑彳㩌⥛䄖㑕䔏⫔⭥䐃ᇱ䊻䇻䊎㑰Ⱝ㦒᷍䊻⶷⤥㼜Ⳳ⿘⡩䇱㶜⿹㪞㻣᷍ᄍ䅊〞れⱁ㞅䊎㑰᷍キ㿙ⴋ⭮䔗ⱁ⧪⤥᱄ ⴈ㻶䅓㯹ᷛ㦌㤓(가)イ䁙㯺㯆㵬᷍⶷⤥⨗㋻䎘㬶⹹㯑᷍ⱎ㸻䍞䎚⿛ᇲ㣳䁙㯺⿷ⶕ㹐㒘᷍㦌⺛䅀㤊⧷㿙㕜䁴᱄ 黹㲊㠻〖|䓉㳃⡉⷇ 2022-04-183 / 25 1. ᄍ䑟䄖⶷⤥㼜Ⳳ㦵䍝⟌⡻ᄒ㩞᷍⶷⤥㼜Ⳳᇱ⹚䄲ⳃ㪛㘘㻵⢅鼻 1.1 ⭹⥛䈌〚ᄍ᷍䐱⺛⶷㳛⹅䄖屮㾥㤞Ⱀ㑇 ⺞㦆㧞㬏㛋᷍䐱⺛(가)イ㦂⭤(協)⫔⭥⧪⹇᷍ⱙ䄵⭹⥛巛〚ᄍ㸋⫛⢎⭥ᄍ䑟䄖㬨㸳⺛(가)イⳃ䍚⭥䐹䄋㵧Ⱀ㑇䐏䄜᱄(가)⺞゙㬏㛋⭥ⳃ䍚᷍㸳⺛〚ᄍ㵗䓫⪴2003㛋⭥1.37㶓䄻䋗⧅䐢2021㛋⭥18.89㶓䄻᱄ⱙⳠ⭹⥛㼛㬼㘇〞⪴1999㛋⭥1.34䄻㠞㗸䋗⧅䐢2021㛋⭥17.94䄻㠞㗸᱄䈌⪬㵍㬒᷍㸳⺛⪷⶷⥛㑠⪴1999㛋⭥1.48䄻ⰷ䋗⧅䐢2020㛋䔏ⷀ11.19䄻ⰷ᷍2021㛋㬽⺛㚻⪷⶷⥛㑠䁚ブ䎟⥀䇑㼍䇱㰚⿹㕅᱄䎜㳆ⱙ䁵᷍ᄍ䑟䄖㬨⺞㦆゙㬏㛋㸳⺛⶷㳛⹅䄖⭥屮㾥㤞Ⱀ㑇᱄ 㵝1ᷛ䐱⺛⪷⶷⥛㑠䈌⭹⥛〚ᄍ㾱䄖ⳃ䍚 ⭆㸜ᷛ䄻䊋᱃㶓ⰷ᱃㶓㠞㗸 㭞(資)㎕䊕ᷛ⺛コ㵔ェ(祝)᱃黹㲊㠻〖䁱(一)䊛 1.2 ᄍ䑟䄖⶷⤥㼜Ⳳ㦵䍝⟌⡻ᄒ㩞᷍㡅㰝㾱䄖㼜Ⳳ䋗⧅䁙㯺 ⺛コ(가)イⳃ⫐⧭Ⱙ⤜㵍᷍⭝䐣⶷⤥㼜Ⳳᇱ⹚⤜㵍᱄㵉⧄ⳃ⫐⺛コ巛ⳃ䍚䐱⺛コᇱ⹚⥏䅍戈⫔᱄ⳃ䍚䐱⺛コ⶷⤥㼜Ⳳ䑘䄋䊻ᄍ䑟䄖᷍ⱙⳃ⫐⺛コ⶷⤥㼜Ⳳ䑘䄋䊻䐧䋍䄖Ⳟ㘇᱄䐱⺛⶷⤥㼜Ⳳᇱ⹚䐱᷍ᄍ䑟䄖᱃〛㾖巛㡜⧖㾱䄖㬨㸳⺛⶷⤥㼜Ⳳ㣑㧞㾱䄖᱄㡅䐱᷍ᄍ䑟䄖2014㛋⶷⤥㼜Ⳳ4.88䄻ⰷ᷍䍝⡩䄜Ⱙ⧍⺞⶷⤥㼜Ⳳ䓽㑠⭥60%᱄㰇水᷍ᄍ䑟㾱䄖䇤⶷㑠䍝⡩⨗㻷㑍㿙㻣鼎᷍2018㛋ᅨ䐢52.46%᱄㰇水᷍2020㛋䅀㤊᷍䊻䎟⥀⪭ゅ㻣᷍〚ᄍ巛Ⳡ⭹⥛㾱䄖㵍㬒ⳃ㑇᷍ᄍ䑟㾱䄖䇤⶷㼜Ⳳ㉙ⰵ㑠䋗䐢5.74䄻ⰷ᷍䇤⶷㼜Ⳳ䍝⡩ⳕ⭐䐢56%䔔䇳᱄䊻⺛コ䇱䅃⮘ᄮⳠ⭹⥛㾱䄖⭥⡔(라)㻣᷍䓵㦆㛋7䊣12月㬝᷍䊻Ⳡ⭹⥛㾱䄖ⷘ㼏(가)イ㭞(資)⫔ⴚ㻣㾱᷍⭹⥛㾱䄖䇤⶷ᄐ。䇱㰚㻣ᅨ᷍䊅ェ水㠻㸳⺛⶷⤥㼜Ⳳᇱ⹚。⨗㻷㻵䑙ᇱ⹚⢅鼻᱄ 050,000100,000150,000200,000030,00060,00090,000120,000199920012003200520072009201120132015201720192021⪷⶷⥛㑠(㶓ⰷ᷍䔔䑂)㩭㠘Ⳡ㼛㬼㘇〞(㶓㠞㗸᷍䇳䑂)〚⪂㪉㬊ᄍ㪉㵗䓫(䄻䊋᷍䇳䑂) 黹㲊㠻〖|䓉㳃⡉⷇ 2022-04-184 / 25 ⢎1ᷛ⺛㚻ⷘ㾱䄖⶷⤥㼜Ⳳ㤊㌗ ⭆㸜ᷛ䄻ⰷ ⺛㚻⶷⤥㼜Ⳳ⳷ᇲᷛ 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E ᄍ䑟 4.88 4.48 4.19 4.38 4.30 4.79 5.74 5.71 〛㾖 1.40 1.29 1.28 1.36 1.40 1.42 1.58 1.66 㡜⧖ 0.50 0.50 0.54 0.58 0.56 0.50 0.49 0.51 㚽䊕 0.32 0.32 0.31 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.38 0.40 䋍⪍ 0.13 0.14 0.12 0.14 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.12 コ⮈ 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.15 㳛⭡ 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 ゐ䓑㼅 0.06 0.06 0.04 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 㡅㰜 0.64 0.63 0.65 0.75 1.25 1.46 1.69 1.71 ⺛㚻⶷⤥㼜Ⳳ 8.08 7.56 7.29 7.76 8.20 8.86 10.24 10.36 㭞(資)㎕䊕ᷛ䄒㆑⺇鼠䊛᱃黹㲊䁱(一)᱃黹㲊㠻〖䁱(一)䊛 ⢎2ᷛ⺛㚻ⷘ㾱䄖⶷⤥㼜Ⳳ䍝⡩⢅鼻 ⭆㸜ᷛ% ⺛㚻⶷⤥㼜Ⳳ⳷ᇲᷛ 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E ᄍ䑟 60.40% 59.25% 57.47% 56.43% 52.46% 54.05% 56.08% 55.11% 〛㾖 17.30% 17.08% 17.63% 17.52% 17.08% 16.03% 15.44% 16.01% 㡜⧖ 6.19% 6.55% 7.41% 7.47% 6.83% 5.64% 4.81% 4.89% 㚽䊕 3.96% 4.21% 4.27% 4.19% 4.02% 3.84% 3.71% 3.85% 䋍⪍ 1.61% 1.79% 1.65% 1.80% 1.46% 1.28% 1.10% 1.16% コ⮈ 1.30% 1.43% 1.48% 1.51% 1.52% 1.52% 1.36% 1.48% 㳛⭡ 0.64% 0.64% 0.72% 0.63% 0.62% 0.61% 0.53% 0.52% ゐ䓑㼅 0.71% 0.75% 0.49% 0.77% 0.73% 0.56% 0.50% 0.52% 㡅㰜 7.89% 8.31% 8.88% 9.68% 15.27% 16.47% 16.47% 16.47% ⺛㚻⶷⤥㼜Ⳳ 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 㭞(資)㎕䊕ᷛ䄒㆑⺇鼠䊛᱃黹㲊䁱(一)᱃黹㲊㠻〖䁱(一)䊛 㵝2ᷛ2021㛋⺛㚻⶷⤥⳷㾱䄖䍝⡩ ⭆㸜ᷛ% 㵝3ᷛ㔾㸧⶷䍝⶷⤥⡩䐹 ⭆㸜ᷛ% 㭞(資)㎕䊕ᷛ䄒㆑⺇鼠䊛᱃黹㲊䁱(一)᱃黹㲊㠻〖䁱(一)䊛 㭞(資)㎕䊕ᷛMysteel᱃黹㲊㠻〖䁱(一)䊛 ᄍ䑟, 55.11%〛㾖, 16.01%㡜⧖, 4.89%㚽䊕, 3.85%䋍⪍, 1.16%コ⮈᷍1.48%㳛⭡, 0.52%ゐ䓑㼅, 0.52%㡅㰜, 16.47%18%20%22%24%26%28%200520072009201120132015201720192021㔾㸧⶷䍝⶷⤥⡩䐹 黹㲊㠻〖|䓉㳃⡉⷇ 2022-04-185 / 25 2. ⭹⥛㻣㾱᷍〚ᄍⰵ⨆᷍⨗㋻䇱㶜㸍⧷ⷀ䋗⧅ 2.1 䎟⥀㑍㿙㯪⟔᷍᱑䅓⧨㬊⥀᱒⧪䑘〚⮘ 䓵㦆㛋7䊣12月㬝᷍Ⳡ⭹⥛(가)イ㭞(資)ⰰ䁣㬞㻣⮙᷍⤠⳷Ⳡ㡔⨗㻷㒘Ⱀ㾵ⴈ㻶᱄㘇ⰵ䊞䁾䊞㑳⭥㆕䍦㾯㬧᷍䎟ⶏ䔗⨗䎟⥀㩰⭥⮘䎜᷍⪺㆙Ⳡ⭹⥛㾱䄖㾯⧪㑝㾵䁎⿘巛ᄇ㋖ⳃ䍚᱄2022㛋1-2䊣⳾᷍㦌⺛Ⳡ⭹⥛12月ⳃ㵗䓫14,499䄻䊋᷍㵍⡩䋗⧅3.7%ᷜⳠ㸾㾣12月⹅㘇〞14,967㶓㠞Ⳟ㗸᷍㻣ᅨ12.2%ᷜⳠ㸾㬊⹅㘇〞784,459㶓㠞Ⳟ㗸᷍㵍⡩䋗⧅1.8%ᷜⳠ㸾4月⹅㘇〞12,200㶓㠞Ⳟ㗸᷍㻣ᅨ9.8%ᷜ㩭㠘Ⳡ㼛㬼㘇〞15,703㶓㠞Ⳟ㗸᷍㵍⡩㻣ᅨ9.8