“银十”成色十足，持续关注板块布局机会——房地产行业周报（10.27-11.02）董浩研究员SFC CE Ref：BOI846hao.dong@cricsec.com张春娥联系人SFC CE Ref：BOU062zhangchune@cric.com周卓君联系人zhouzhuojun@cric.com 周度数据一览：•本周40城一手房成交面积同比+14.6%，环比+7.4%，10月单月成交面积同比+20.1%。本周40城一手房成交面积494.3万方，同比+14.6%，环比+7.4%。年初至今40城一手房累计成交面积20359.4万方，累计同比+16.1%。其中一线（4城）/二线（16城）/三四线（20城）城市累计同比分别+14.8/+30.7/-4.1%，较上周分别-0.2/-1.0/-0.1pct。10月单月成交面积1765.3万方，同比+20.1%，其中一线/二线/三四线分别同比+9.6/+38.6/-1.8%。•本周19城二手房成交面积同比+19.1%，环比+12.4%，10月单月成交面积同比+21.7%。本周19城二手房成交面积144.4万方，同比+19.1%，环比+12.4%。年初至今19城累计成交面积7080.5万方，累计同比+19.4%。其中一线（2城）/二线（8城）/三四线（9城）城市累计同比分别-4.5/+31.9/+20.6%，较上周分别变化+0.1/-0.2/-0.5pct。10月单月成交面积511.5万方，同比+21.7%，其中一线/二线/三四线累计同比+15.4/+31.5/+9.3%。•本周百城土地成交面积同比-70.3%，环比-35.7%，供销比为1.5。本周百城土地供给1521万方，同比-48.1%，环比-26.9%；成交建面1024万方，同比-70.3%，环比-35.7%；供销比（供给/成交）为1.5。本周百城平均成交楼面均价3087元/平方米，较上周-20.3%；一线/二线/三四线城市周成交楼面均价分别为8610/3785/1565元/平方米。本周百城土地溢价率为7.1%，较上周-12.8pct。•本周17城去化周期10.6个月，同比-0.5个月，环比-0.4个月。本周17城住宅平均去化月数10.6个月，同比-0.5个月，环比-0.4个月；一线（4城）/二线（7城）/三四线（6城）城市平均去化月数分别为9.2/7.9/19.8个月，同比分别+1.6/-1.0/+2.0个月。投资建议：十月我们统计的全国40城销售整体向好，单月同比增速约20%，同时根据10月末克而瑞公布的百强房企销售榜单，TOP10/TOP11-30/TOP31-50/TOP51-100房企单月同比增速分别为30%/38%/38%/20%，主流房企销售增速超预期。我们认为在基本面略超预期，叠加外部形势改善的多重利好作用下，地产板块低估值优势进一步凸显，近期板块行情值得关注。持续推荐:【万科A】、【中国奥园】、【阳光城】等高周转标的，同时建议关注高分红品种:【金地集团】、【龙光地产】等。风险提示：由于样本选取以及样本数据更新时段各异，统计结果和实际数据或存在差异；三四线销量下滑超预期；长效机制超预期。 一手房成交数据（40城）详情年份销售面积地区一手房销售面积（万方）一手房销售面积同比（非移动平均）2010201120122013201420152016201720182019年至今10月至今最近一周2019至今累计同比10月至今累计同比最近一周环比最近一周同比分域级40城8105.49116.814418.218093.817161.922365.027158.721209.822202.420583.12157.4494.316.0%19.0%-8.6%-1.8%一线（4城）3947.03273.54151.64547.13820.55048.04885.93107.73022.32788.5246.874.78.4%12.7%26.0%7.2%二线（16城）3933.74981.98429.710309.99978.513180.616306.711824.511643.811710.81260.0328.030.4%33.8%-11.4%40.2%三四线（20城）224.7861.31836.93236.83362.84136.45966.16277.67536.46083.7650.5137.9-4.0%-0.3%-10.4%-7.9%分区域长三角（13城）2606.82815.65326.26358.16240.77890.39357.27052.26485.45936.3560.1131.710.8%14.8%-11.2%-15.1%环渤海（4城）2012.91777.62176.22994.02784.03718.14915.43644.22859.62814.5291.371.026.2%33.4%-3.5%-15.2%粤港澳（6城）1848.81850.12366.52572.12157.23269.63448.72423.12410.42010.5202.660.44.9%23.7%23.0%40.0%中西部（7城）1344.12368.93307.44103.24018.45217.36121.24320.15711.45858.7701.5153.434.9%31.5%-13.5%22.4%其他（10城）292.8304.61241.92066.41961.62269.73316.13770.44735.73949.5401.977.81.4%-1.8%-15.9%-19.0%一线北京1235.7934.41279.01260.3966.41133.9945.7546.2495.5589.255.812.856.1%10.0%8.5%-38.8%上海1568.11289.71434.81799.11634.52192.02171.81354.11264.21152.599.532.35.1%7.3%26.1%-3.5%广州838.4779.41069.51045.4817.01057.61354.2950.8972.4758.568.323.3-2.0%18.5%48.3%102.5%深圳304.8270.0368.3442.3402.7664.5414.1256.6290.2288.423.26.319.2%30.3%2.7%65.9%二线杭州0.0239.6756.9797.4858.91174.01556.61081.1965.4636.553.611.9-19.2%-24.5%-16.4%-43.0%南京526.9406.1775.91011.4797.71225.11460.8784.4701.0672.384.01.326.3%62.4%-95.6%-93.2%武汉0.0815.51332.61584.81798.02283.93030.12082.31804.31896.9250.352.033.1%52.7%-14.7%15.3%成都808.3649.6897.81094.2932.6885.9744.9397.21397.81604.4152.730.568.7%21.9%-33.1%48.9%青岛777.2843.2897.11212.0913.01334.02057.51691.41550.61170.9130.331.9-7.6%77.0%-3.0%-31.3%苏州511.8605.91201.0801.6811.01152.6989.8876.7907.5849.783.121.611.4%13.8%7.0%-38.3%福州191.1173.0244.7229.4220.6202.3267.7171.7188.6229.222.74.467.5%-0.7%-22.1%-31.5%东莞433.8520.1600.4755.7565.2995.1892.7560.9507.9441.645.914.212.5%19.8%6.3%-5.9%惠州271.7280.6328.4328.6259.2351.4519.9323.1279.6228.523.57.1-0.6%-3.3%31.4%8.2%南宁412.8362.9395.2560.9572.8825.11041.8862.9827.1946.0125.630.354.0%41.9%-2.5%45.0%济南0.00.00.0521.8742.31065.81621.3953.3545.5835.981.220.5108.4%4.8%-14.3%54.8%绍兴0.025.3108.8151.3127.1203.1179.5197.6155.9194.518.95.239.6%182.3%5.4%178.4%宁波0.00.00.00.0282.5532.1586.9618.2401.3640.257.320.094.9%54.6%88.6%109.1%温州0.020.0179.2331.8323.2367.1558.8615.2716.1701.880.521.414.1%109.9%36.1%90.7%泉州0.040.2138.0226.8128.8114.2228.5219.0325.4246.423.84.5-10.4%2.3%-29.7%-14.2%常州0.00.0574.0702.2645.7469.1569.7389.4369.8416.126.55.031.3%1.0%-30.6%-27.1% 一手房成交数据（40城）详情（续）年份销售面积地区一手房销售面积（万方）一手房销售面积同比（非移动平均）2010201120122013201420152016201720182019年至今10月至今最近一周2019至今累计同比10月至今累计同比最近一周环比最近一周同比三线扬州0.091.3132.5245.7166.2197.0296.5339.4379.8185.814.80.9-43.5%-66.1%-80.7%-81.7%岳阳123.0117.1110.0125.6129.3223.9228.8245.6195.3175.826.55.31.6%40.0%-26.3%12.5%韶关101.671.481.2137.2118.6151.9245.0210.4187.5134.315.43.8-19.8%-29.8%16.2%-6.1%金华0.049.8122.9199.3180.4185.4185.0100.5202.7159.618.24.0-13.8%188.5%-22.7%130.5%吉林0.0253.3245.5311.6250.4312.4269.7199.5251.0204.319.85.3-3.9%-17.2%64.4%-31.2%镇江0.00.00.0544.6589.1336.2759.4501.2774.0657.966.418.31.0%16.0%23.4%22.0%赣州0.0170.5326.4426.2333.7686.1805.9475.6921.8758.993.822.2-8.4%13.2%-3.9%10.8%淮安0.00.0245.7582.0510.4651.8981.3684.5654.9442.161.79.6-21.2%10.2%-10.4%-34.8%连云港0.00.0353.2559.2440.5518.1662.0804.7695.5566.260.213.4-11.4%30.0%-13.1%23.9%常德0.00.00.00.01.50.00.056.9314.1278.932.97.811.0%8.4%23.7%23.0%淮南0.00.00.00.0109.067.2118.1280.2201.5164.515.22.5-5.5%-30.7%-19.8%0.6%江门0.00.00.00.0113.2201.0267.8219.5120.395.011.13.