四季度矿钢继续震荡筑底

光大期货研究团队四季度矿钢继续震荡筑底9月28日光大期货研究所 一、钢铁产业链急剧恶化二、钢矿继续震荡筑底p 2提纲 一、螺纹钢探向前低p 3 铁矿石重回下行通道p 4 做空钢厂利润或告一段落p 51500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12Oct-12Jan-13Apr-13Jul-13Oct-13Jan-14Apr-14Jul-14Oct-14Jan-15Apr-15Jul-15螺纹钢（理重）热轧板卷元/吨上海市场钢价走势图300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Sep-11Dec-11Mar-12Jun-12Sep-12Dec-12Mar-13Jun-13Sep-13Dec-13Mar-14Jun-14Sep-14Dec-14Mar-15Jun-15Sep-15普氏指数Fe62%（左轴）青岛港PB粉（右轴）铁矿石价格走势图3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 钢矿价格比 钢铁行业持续低迷p 62014年4月以来，钢铁PMI指数一直在50下方运行；上半年钢协统计重点钢铁企业主营业务亏损216.8亿元，增亏167.68亿元；去年银行对钢铁行业抽贷1500亿，今年上半年继续抽贷900亿。5.267.458.086.546.787.273.32.462.912.420.040.620.850.11-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 -100001000030000500007000090000110000130000150000170000大中型钢铁企业利润（百万元）利润率30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0 Jan-10May-10Sep-10Jan-11May-11Sep-11Jan-12May-12Sep-12Jan-13May-13Sep-13Jan-14May-14Sep-14Jan-15May-15Sep-15钢铁PMI指数-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 Feb-12May-12Aug-12Nov-12Feb-13May-13Aug-13Nov-13Feb-14May-14Aug-14Nov-14Feb-15May-15Aug-15矿采选业投资额累计值黑色金属投资额累计值（矿）同比（黑色金属）同比 钢厂开工率阶段性见顶p 7160170180190200210220230240Jan-12Mar-12May-12Jul-12Oct-12Dec-12Feb-13Apr-13Jun-13Aug-13Oct-13Dec-13Feb-14Apr-14Jun-14Aug-14Oct-14Dec-14Feb-15Apr-15Jun-15Aug-15万吨统计局日均粗钢产量120130140150160170180190200Jan-12Mar-12May-12Jul-12Sep-12Nov-12Jan-13Mar-13May-13Jul-13Sep-13Nov-13Jan-14Mar-14May-14Jul-14Sep-14Nov-14Jan-15Mar-15May-15Jul-15Sep-15万吨钢协重点企业旬度日均产量0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 75 80 85 90 95 100 Aug-12Oct-12Dec-12Feb-13Apr-13Jun-13Aug-13Oct-13Dec-13Feb-14Apr-14Jun-14Aug-14Oct-14Dec-14Feb-15Apr-15Jun-15Aug-15钢厂盈利率高炉开工率高炉产能利用率 钢材出口阻力增大p 82015年8月份国内钢材出口973万吨，环比持平；1-8月钢材累计钢材出口7187万吨，同比增长26.5%（1505万吨）。2014年我国钢材出口9378万吨。全球除粗钢产量降幅加快，表明大量出口并不是全球需求增长所致。目前热轧出口报370美元/吨(FOB)，折不足1800元/吨。02004006008001000Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12Oct-12Jan-13Apr-13Jul-13Oct-13Jan-14Apr-14Jul-14Oct-14Jan-15Apr-15Jul-15净出口钢材出口钢材进口万吨-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 1400000 1600000 1800000 Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12Oct-12Jan-13Apr-13Jul-13Oct-13Jan-14Apr-14Jul-14Oct-14Jan-15Apr-15Jul-15全球粗钢产量月度累计值同比 销售压力转向钢厂一方p 9800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 Jan-12Mar-12May-12Jul-12Sep-12Nov-12Jan-13Mar-13May-13Jul-13Sep-13Nov-13Jan-14Mar-14May-14Jul-14Sep-14Nov-14Jan-15Mar-15May-15Jul-15Sep-15万吨五大品种钢材社会库存800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 万吨钢协统计重点企业钢材库存 钢铁需求负增长到产量负增长p 10-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 Jan-13Mar-13May-13Jul-13Sep-13Nov-13Jan-14Mar-14May-14Jul-14Sep-14Nov-14Jan-15Mar-15May-15Jul-15粗钢表观消费量累计值同比产量8月去年同月同比增幅（%）1-8月去年同期增减增幅（%）粗钢66946937-3.55430255410-1108-2生铁57616071-5.14711648674-1558-3.2钢材944994110.4745457344311021.5进口8月去年同月同比增幅（%）1-8月去年同期增减增幅（%）钢材102137-25.5872964-92-9.6粗钢113148-23.89481048-100-9.6出口8月去年同月同比增幅（%）1-8月去年同期增减增幅（%）钢材97377825.171875682150526.5粗钢103582825.176466045160126.5资源供应量8月去年同月同比增幅（%）1-8月去年同期增减增幅（%）粗钢57716257-7.84760450413-2809-5.6钢材85788770-2.26823068725-495-0.7-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Feb-12May-12Aug-12Nov-12Feb-13May-13Aug-13Nov-13Feb-14May-14Aug-14Nov-14Feb-15May-15Aug-15基建房地产制造业固定投资三大行业投资额增速 四季度外矿供给压力加大p 112014年2015年e2015年上半年上半年同比增加Vale3.193.351.676.3%Rio2.953.31.5411%BHP2.32.51.195.6%FMG1.61.620.715%合计9.9910.775.110.60000.65000.70000.75000.80000.85000.90000.95001.00001.05001.10004.00004.50005.00005.50006.00006.50007.0000Oct-12Dec-12Feb-13Apr-13Jun-13Aug-13Oct-13Dec-13Feb-14Apr-14Jun-14Aug-14Oct-14Dec-14Feb-15Apr-15Jun-15Aug-15澳元兑人民币（左轴）澳元兑美元（右轴） 8月份进口量被低估p 121-8月份我国累计进口铁矿石6.14亿吨，同比降0.2% ；8月进口7412万，被低估。1-8月进口非主流矿0.71亿吨，年化下来在1 亿吨左右，去年进口非主流矿1.71亿吨。我们对外矿的依赖度进一步提升至近80%，大型矿商高度控盘。0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 Jan-13Mar-13May-13Jul-13Sep-13Nov-13Jan-14Mar-14May-14Jul-14Sep-14Nov-14Jan-15Mar-15May-15Jul-15其它南非巴西澳洲万吨月度矿石进口量5007009001100130015001700190021002300250005101520253035Nov-12Jan-13Mar-13May-13Jul-13Sep-13Nov-13Jan-14Mar-14May-14Jul-14Sep-14Nov-14Jan-15Mar-15May-15Jul-15巴西-青岛西澳-青岛BDI（右轴） 铁矿石港口库存仍有上升空间p 13-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 Jan-13Mar-13May-13Jul-13Sep-13Nov-13Jan-14Mar-14May-14Jul-14Sep-14Nov-14Jan-15Mar-15May-15Jul-15Sep-15港口铁矿石库存量同比050100150200250Sep-12Nov-12Jan-13Mar-13May-13Jul-13Sep-13Nov-13Jan-14Mar-14May-14Jul-14Sep-14Nov-14Jan-15Mar-15May-15Jul-15矿山铁精粉库存:全国矿山铁精粉库存:>100万吨矿山铁精粉库存:30-100万吨矿山铁精粉库存:<30万吨万吨0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 进口矿铁精粉焦炭喷吹煤——钢厂原料库存 国产矿继续承压p 142015年1-8月份原矿产量8.85亿吨，同比下降9.63%。我们调研实际减产或高于统计局数据，预计2015年铁精粉减产5000万吨左右。0102030405060708090100Sep-12Nov-12Jan-13Mar-13May-13Jul-13Sep-13Nov-13Jan-14Mar-14May-14Jul-14Sep-14Nov-14Jan-15Mar-15May-15Jul-15Sep-15铁精粉:>100万吨铁精粉:30-100万吨铁精粉:<30万吨铁精粉:全国国内矿山开工率%-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12Oct-12Jan-13Apr-13Jul-13Oct-13Jan-14Apr-14Jul-14Oct-14Jan-15Apr-15Jul-15原矿产量累计同比 盘面显示产业链进一步恶化p 15-300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1500200025003000350040004500基差螺纹钢主力合约螺纹钢现货(上海)-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 300.0400.0500.0600.0700.0800.0900.01,000.0基差铁矿石主力合约青岛港现货（湿基）-200