奢侈品行业研究：返校季

Back to school Price Objective Change 27 August 2026 2Q revenue +7%, data for 3Q so far suggests slowdownLuxury revenue grew+7.0% in 2Q26, which was an acceleration of 290bps vs 1Q26. EquityEuropeLuxury Goods Industry growth was boosted Richemont, excluding this company growth would havebeen +3.8% and a 190bps acceleration. Industry demand for 3Q26 so far points to aslightly softer quarter, with a sequential slowdown most evident in the US, Japan, Koreaand Macau (the strongest regions of 2Q). That being said, September is the mostimportant month of the quarter and has the“toughest comp”from last year, howeverwill benefit from the earlier Mid-Autumn festival. We slightly trim our estimates toreflect our view that the progressive recovery in luxury demand is not linear. This leadsto a small cut to sector EPS (~1%, also after FX mark to market), changes to individualcompanies shown inExhibit 16and POs inExhibit 17. AshleyWallace>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Australia)+61 2 9226 5070ashley.d.wallace@bofa.com Daria Nasledysheva>>Research AnalystMLI (UK)+44 20 7996 1087daria.nasledysheva@bofa.com September the biggest swing factor in 3QLast year, companies described July trading as broadly inline with 2Q25. However, by the Ioanna Ziarti>>Research AnalystMLI (UK)+44 20 7996 8116ioanna.ziarti@bofa.com time 3Q25 was reported sector growth had improved by 6ppts to +3%, which was also a1ppt acceleration on the 2yr stack. (Exhibit 8). This year, during 2Q26 earnings callsmost management teams pointed to broadly stable trends in July but emphasized thetougher YoY comps. Kering and Ferragamo were the exceptions, with both suggestingthe quarter may see a sequential slowdown. The industry data we track shows that on aregional-weighted average basis, global luxury data points to a 3ppt slowdown in3Q26TD vs 2Q26 (Exhibit 7), and this is still not yet including September which carriesthe toughest comparison (Exhibit 5). Consensus models industry revenue growth for 3Q= 2Q, ex Richemont. We think the fade modelled by the street on Richemont is too harshand the improvement modelled elsewhere too optimistic (Exhibit 11&Exhibit 12). Thierry Cota>>Research AnalystBofASE (France) Joffrey Bellicha Meller>>Research AnalystMLI (UK) Giulia D'Ambrosio>>Research AnalystMLI (UK) Different speeds across regionsThe US remains the strongest market. Americans have been the biggest contributor to sector growth in 1H26, and likely remains that way in 2H, however YoY growth in 3QTDhas slowed 4-5ppts vs 2Q. BAC aggregated credit & debit Card data for soft luxury is +9%in 3Q26 (to 15thAug), a 5ppt slowdown from 2Q. BAC jewellery spend also decelerated4ppt to +6% YoY in 3QTD from +10% in 2Q.European tourism spend is less badat -4% in July from -5% in 2Q26, supported by improvements in Chinese and Middle Easternclients.China remains uneven, with jewellery improving by 170bps to -1% in July vs 2Q.August looks to be impacted by heavy rainfall, typhoons and flooding which willtemporarily weigh on store traffic with >1m people relocating (see store exposure to mostaffected areas inExhibit 27). September will likely recover thanks to the earlier timing ofMid-Autumn Festival which runs 25-27thSept 2026 vs Oct 2025 (National Day runs 1-7thOct 2026 vs Mid-Autumn Festival & National Day together during 1-8thOct 2025).Elsewhere in Asia;Korea is still very strong, with luxury spend +37% in 2Q26, however SSSG at Lotte, Shinsegae & HDS for July is between 2-6ppts slower than 2Q. Japan duty-free slowed 10ppt QoQ to +11% in 3QTD, with department-store sales also slowing 50bpsto +4%. And in Macau, GGR moved to -8% YoY in July (vs flat in 2Q). Contents Brand Leading Indicator–July 202675 Understanding the shape of 3Q26 History suggests that 3Q25 growth improved each month of the quarter. At thetime of 2Q25 reporting most companies cited July trends broadly inline with2Q. However by the time the companies reported 3Q, growth was +3% havingaccelerated 620bps vs 2Q26. When we compare this to the monthly datapoints we track, average data for 3Q25 improved 3.5ppt vs 2Q; 3ppt of thisimprovement was driven by September alone. This year, during the 2Q26 earnings calls most companies pointed to broadlystable trends in July; but highlighted the tougher comps. However we note thatboth Kering and Ferragamo suggested that current trading / expectations wasfor a slowdown. The global data points we track for 3QTD has slowed c.3ppt vs 2Q26; whichalso doesn’t yet incorporate the data from the toughest comp base month ofthe quarter (i.e. Sept). Almost all luxury companies have a tougher base to lap in 3Q26 vs 2Q26.However, this is true only for the YoY and on a 2yr CAGR basis, the basebecomes easier for some of our coverage, and on a 3yr CAGR basis, it becomeseasier for almost all companies. On consensus numbers, sector revenues will slow c.1ppt in 3Q vs 2Q withKering Gucci retail and F&L are expected to improve the most sequentially in3Q26, while for Richem