海湾有多少石油流出？

Just how much oil is leaving the Gulf? ResearchAnalyst+65-6423-7510 last two weeks, whichdeserve some discussion. Saudi crude oil exports of possibly2.7 mmb/d, contradicting the SaudiAramco CEO's statement in early August that the Houthi threats"haven'tdented export volumes." of Russian crude originating from the Black Sea transiting the Bab elMandebonitswaytoAsiancustomers.Ourbasecaseassumptionwouldbe that these flows will have simply been re-routed (i.e., no net supplytightening). Two, the US abruptly increased its net import of crude oil in early Augustfrom2.5to4.3mmb/d,boostingdomestic commercial crude inventory.This means that the US is providing the least supply accommodation tothe global crude market since the start of March. Althoughthismaysimplybea one-weekphenomenon,wenotethat theUS may be nearing a temporary pause (or end) in its SPR release. Thiscould cause upward pressure on US crude net imports in about 3 weekstime at the current SPR release rate, implying a tighter global marketbalanceafterthatpoint. Varyingaccountsdeserveexamination Inthepast week,varyingaccounts haveheld that anywherefrom4mmb/d or9mmb/d of crude oil and refined products are leaving the Middle East Gulf.According to Bloomberg,"market estimates" are 4 mmb/d1, while US Secretary ofEnergy Chris Wright stated that "eight or nine million barrels of oil per day" areleavingtheregion,comparedto“zerobarrels of oil perday"fromIran.2 One possibility is that the discrepancy is down to an ambiguity made possible bythe language being used. Secretary Wright describes oil"leaving the region"which may differ from the portion of oil being exported by producing countriesvia the Strait of Hormuz. Asof earlyJuly,thedifferencebetweenthe5mmb/dthat wetrack leavingtheMiddle EastGulf via the Strait of Hormuz (Figure1)and the Energy Secretary's9 HsuehOnOil Sea leavingvia theBab el Mandeb (Figure2).As a side note, one point where we can corroborate the Energy Secretary's statement is that the balance between non-lranian and Iranian liquids exports isvery lopsided, with Iran accounting for only 0.11 mmb/d in mid-August. HouthiblockadehashadaneffectSincethe Houthi blockadeof the Red Sea, Saudi crudeflows through theBab el Mandebhavedropped to zero.ItalsoappearsthatRussian flows havebeenaffected, which originate primarily from the Black Sea but also possibly theBaltics,bound for Asian customers.These Russian flows have dropped from 3.2mmb/dinJulyto2.0mmb/dinAugust,butthedeclinemaynotnecessarilyreflectreduced supply. As long as those barrels are loading from the Black Sea, they maybe simply re-routed to the same Asian customers, or delivered to differentcustomerselsewhere. As a partial compensation forthe Saudi export reduction,weknowthat a greatervolume of Saudi Arabian crudeoilexports havebeen flowing northward throughthe Suez Canal and SUMED pipeline. How much have Saudi exports been compensated by the Suez route? Reportingindicates that Saudi flows northward have increased from 1.0 mmb/d in July to2.3mmb/dinAugust.3Theseflowsoftenmakeuseof theSUMEDpipelinetopartially offload crudefromVLCCswhich cannotpassthe Suezwhilefullyloaded.The VLCC will then reload the crude from Sidi Kerir port in Egypt. If we considerthat Saudi exports via Bab el Mandeb have dropped by 4 mmb/d, but onlyrecovered bythe1.3mmb/d increase viaSuez,thenthis suggeststhatSaudiexportcapabilityhasseenanetdeclineof2.7mmb/dsinceJuly HsuehOnOil thatthethreats bythe Houthis“haven'tdented export volumes."4Weshould notethat there are also likely seasonal effects at play,wherein higher Saudi domesticdemand inthe summertypicallyreduces crudeavailable forexport, so the lowerexport volume may not have been only caused by the Houthi blockade. It will also have hurt global supply that US net imports of crude oil rose sharply in the week ending 7-August,up from 2.5 to 4.3 mmb/d (Figure 3), with acorresponding increase in commercial crude inventory, Figure 4.This is thehighestcrudenetimportfiguresinceJune2025 Source: US EIA,Deutsche Bank Research rce: US EIA,Deutsche BankResearch Whilethis may only be a one-week blip, we should also worry that the US SPRrelease may atleast benearing apause, ifnot its end.TheUshas released 116.4mmbbl out of the 133.6 mmbbl that has been awarded for exchange (where therefinertakes crudefirst beforereturningagreater quantity of crudelater).The Usis obligated under the IEA coordinated release to provide 172 mmbbl to themarket, but until the Department of Energy successfully awards SPR exchangesin the sufficient volume, the US SPR release could possibly halt after the first133.6 mmbbl. At last week's rate of release (870 kb/d), this would go for only afurther 3 weeks. If the SPR release ends after 3 weeks, then it would likely applysome upward pressure on US crude net imports, and implies tightening for theglobal crude oil market. Figure7:SupplycompensationbytheUSfortheMiddleEastGulfhasgoneintoreverse(smallnettighteningversus Jan-Feb average) Hsue