茅台：市场化转型持续，维持买入评级

Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH) +Expectingsequential improvement in2H26offalowerbase and recentprice hike 1,713.001,732.00 1H26 revenue and net profit were up 1.3% and down 2.0% y-0o y, implying respective5.2% and 6.9% y-0-y declines in 2Q26. For 2Q26, sales of Moutai products declined1% and Series products declined 25%, indicating continued de-stocking for Seriesproducts, especially in the wholesale system (the number of domestic distributors asof end-1H26 declined by a net 46 vs end-4Q25, mainly driven by the decrease inSeries products' distributors). By channels, direct sales were up 34% y-o-y, reflectingrobust demand in DTC channels, especially iMoutai, whose sales grew 283% y-o-yand contributed 83%ofdirect sales; whilethe wholesale channel was down 35%weighing heavily on the company's total revenue. Although the higher contribution oftheDTC channeland price hikes forFeitian arefavourable tomargin,2Q26 GPMwas down 1.1pptto 89.5%, which we believe was due to the downward shift ofproduct mix, as well as the decline in AsP for non-standard Moutai. As such, weslightlylowerour2026-2028eGPMestimatesby0.4ppt,andlowerournetprofitestimates by c1% in each year. Market-oriented pricing is likelytoremain a keyfocus this year.Moutai hasbeen stepping up efforts in its market-oriented transformation this year. Apart frommeasures suchas selling Feitian on iMoutaiandtransferringtoa consignment salesmodel for non-standard Moutai, there have been around six rounds of priceadjustments YTD, across different channels including the wholesale system, iMoutaiand offline DTC stores (see details in Exhibit 1). Noticeably,after Moutai hikedFeitianpricesforthewholesalesystemandiMoutaiplatformon18July,itsofflineDTCstoresraisedFeitian'spriceon8AugusttoRMB1,753/bottle,evenhigherthaniMoutai's price of RMB1,639.Weviewthisas a reflectionof robustdemandas wellas a big step forward towards a more market-oriented and dynamic pricing. Kathy Song* (Reg. No. S1700517120001)HSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedkathy.l.h.song@hsbcqh.com.cn+862150662007 Expectingearningsto improvein2H26offalowerbase.Wenowforecast2026erevenue and net profit to grow at 3.8% and 2.9% y-0-y, with 2H26e revenue and netprofit y-o-y of 6.5% and 8.8%, respectively, a sequential improvement vs 1H26 as thebase trends lower, de-stocking progresses, solid DTC sales continue and the recentpricehikehasapositiveeffect.Overthepastmonth,Feitian'swholesale(packed)price stood at an average of RMB1,700/bottle, showing an upward trend vs 2Q26(see details in Exhibit 3). Doris Luo* (Reg. No. S1700524120003)Analyst,A-shareConsumerResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limiteddoris.y.s.luo@hsbcqh.com.cn+8675588983161 *Employed by a non-US affliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/qualifed pursuant to FINRA regulations Maintain Buy; trim TP to RMB1,713 (from RMB1,732). We continue to value thestock using a DCF model, with key assumptions intact (including 9.1% WACC, 4.0%perpetual growth rate).Based on our revised earnings estimates, we lower our TPfrom RMB1,732 to RMB1,713, which implies c28% upside. Accordingly, we maintainour Buyrating on the stock.See page 6 forkey downside risks. HSBC13thAnnualChinaConference Shenzhen|1-2September2026 Find out more Disclosures &Disclaimer Issuer of report: HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Source: HSBC Qianhai SecuritiesNote: Priced at close of 14 Aug 2026 Earnings review Valuationand risks Downside risks: Lower wholesale prices; slower de- Disclosureappendix whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), and any otherviews or forecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on the back page of the research report, accurately reflectrecommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Kathy Song and Doris Luo Important disclosuresEquities: Stock ratings and basis for financial analysis HSBC and its affiliates, including the issuer of this report ("HSBC") believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations and thatinvestorsutilisevariousdisciplinesandinvestmenthorizonswhenmakinginvestmentdecisions.Ratingsshouldnotbeusedorrelied on in isolation as investment advice. Different securities firms use a variety of ratings terms as well as different ratingsystems to describe their recommendations and therefore investors should carefully read the definitions of the ratings used ineach research report. Further, investors should carefully read the entire research report and not infer its conten