中观周报：上中游分化，下游回落

中观总览 上游：本周上游原材料价格走势延续板块分化格局。能源方面，本周国际原油价格较上期小幅反弹，LNG价格小幅回升；黑色方面，纯碱、螺纹和热卷小幅收涨；有色整体高位震荡；化工品内部涨跌互现，聚乙烯和苯乙烯小幅回升，甲醇小幅回落，PTA中位，PVC窄幅震荡；农产品方面，鸡蛋价格持续回升，玉米和棉花价格持续回落。 中游：本周中游制造业延续分化格局。能源方面，高温天气支撑电厂日耗维持旺季高位水平，沿海八省电厂日耗高位运行。农业方面，屠宰企业开工率低位温和回升但提振有限。本周全国油厂大豆压榨量较上期回落；化工方面，聚乙烯开工率小幅回落、企业库存累积，PTA开工率大幅走低至历史低位，品种间明显分化。PX加工费延续修复。 下游：本周下游消费小幅回落。地产方面，本周多数城市新房销售较上期回落，30城新房成交面积环比下降约24%。物流客运方面，铁路货运量较上期小幅回升，公路货运（高速货车通行量）小幅回落；民航客运航班班次较此前小幅回落。汽车消费方面，本周下游新能源车零售较上期走弱，传统燃油车销售受前期油价上行压制仍处低位。 细分行业 大农业：鸡蛋价格回升，玉米和棉花价格回落；苹果、棉花持续去库。 能源：国际原油小幅度反弹，LNG价格小幅回升。 采矿业：有色价格方面，锌持稳，铜和铅小幅上行，镍回落。有色库存方面，铜、铅和铝持续去库；黑色价格方面，集体小幅上行。黑色库存方面，螺纹、热卷小幅去库。 化工：苯乙烯、聚乙烯和甲醇价格小幅回落；尿素库存堆积，MTO和PVC小幅去库。 基建：水泥价格回落，混凝土价格较此前持平；混凝土产能利用率回落，水泥供给回落。 地产：重点监控城市中，多数城市新房销售套数较上期回落。上海、广州新房销售较上期回升。 物流运输：美西航线和欧洲航线指数回落；铁路货运量回落，公路货运量小幅回落。 风险 上游价格快速上涨，外部风险冲突 目录 一、中观总览............................................................................................................................................4二、行业总览............................................................................................................................................52.1生产行业............................................................................................................................................................................52.2服务行业............................................................................................................................................................................6三、行业定价............................................................................................................................................7四、细分行业跟踪....................................................................................................................................104.1广义农业..........................................................................................................................................................................104.2化工行业..........................................................................................................................................................................104.3有色行业..........................................................................................................................................................................114.4黑色行业..........................................................................................................................................................................114.5基建行业..........................................................................................................................................................................124.6物流运输..........................................................................................................................................................................134.7汽车制造业......................................................................................................................................................................144.8地产行业..........................................................................................................................................................................14 图表 图1：全社会用电量....................................................................................................................................................................4图2：GDP分产业........................................................................................................................................................................4图3：通胀....................................................................................................................................................................................4图4：PMI....................................................................................................................................................................................4图5：生产行业PPI......................................................................................................................................................................5图6：生产行业工业增加值同比................................................................................................................................................5图7：纺织市场景气指数............................................................................................................................................................6图8：上海出口集装箱结算运价指数........................................................................................................................................6图9：邮政数据............................................................................................................................................................................6图10：社会消费品零售同比......................................................................................................................................................6图11：行业市场定价.........................................................................................