中观周报：上游分化，下游偏弱
中观总览 上游：本周上游原材料价格分化：能源端国际原油宽幅震荡，美伊局势反复令油价先扬后抑，布伦特原油周度均价环比涨跌不一，国内成品油价上调预期锁定；黑色系商品价格持稳，钢厂复产需求形成支撑；有色金属铜价高位震荡，铝价跟随伦铝窄幅波动；化工品方面纯苯、乙二醇、PTA等集体下跌，油价回落拖累能化板块整体走弱。 中游：本周中游制造业开工分化。钢铁行业高炉开工基本平稳，铁水产量维持高位运行，建材库存延续去化，板材库存则略有积压。化工行业开工走势分化，PTA产能利用率小幅回落，而聚酯开工微幅回升，PTA及乙二醇均延续去库节奏，供需格局趋于改善。汽车轮胎方面，受五一假期停产检修影响，全钢胎与半钢胎开工率出现阶段性大幅回落，成品库存天数依旧处于偏高水平。 下游：本周下游消费端偏弱。房地产方面，新房成交同比由正转负、环比降幅扩大，一线城市表现坚挺，二手房表现优于新房，但各线城市分化明显，住宅库存去化压力依然较大。大宗消费方面，汽车市场延续走弱态势，乘用车零售同比回落；白电市场五一期间空调、冰箱等品类销量普遍同比回落，终端需求疲软叠加高基数效应制约修复。 细分行业 大农业：棉花价格持续上行，玉米价格持稳，棕榈油价格震荡；苹果、棉花库存回落。 能源：国际原油价格先抑后扬，整体回落。液化天然气价格与上周持平。 采矿业：有色价格方面。锌和铜小幅上行，镍小幅回落。有色库存方面，铝上行，铜与镍持续去库；黑色价格方面，纯碱、螺纹和热卷上行，焦煤持稳。黑色库存方面，焦煤下行，螺纹小幅上行。 化工：聚乙烯、PTA价格上行，苯乙烯价格回落；对二甲苯持续去库，尿素与PVC库存低位。 基建：混凝土和水泥价格回落；水泥、混凝土供给持续上行。 地产：本期重点监控城市中，一线城市北上广深新房销售套数继续上行。重庆新房销售大幅回升，成都、青岛、济南销售回落。 物流运输：国内、国际航班班次回落。欧洲航线指数回落，美西航线指数上行。 风险 经济政策超预期，全球地缘政治冲突。 目录 一、中观总览............................................................................................................................................4二、行业总览............................................................................................................................................52.1生产行业............................................................................................................................................................................52.2服务行业............................................................................................................................................................................6三、行业定价............................................................................................................................................7四、细分行业跟踪....................................................................................................................................104.1广义农业..........................................................................................................................................................................104.2化工行业..........................................................................................................................................................................104.3有色行业..........................................................................................................................................................................114.4黑色行业..........................................................................................................................................................................114.5基建行业..........................................................................................................................................................................124.6物流运输..........................................................................................................................................................................134.7汽车制造业......................................................................................................................................................................144.8地产行业..........................................................................................................................................................................14 图表 图1：全社会用电量....................................................................................................................................................................4图2：GDP分产业........................................................................................................................................................................4图3：通胀....................................................................................................................................................................................4图4：PMI....................................................................................................................................................................................4图5：生产行业PPI......................................................................................................................................................................5图6：生产行业工业增加值同比................................................................................................................................................5图7：纺织市场景气指数............................................................................................................................................................6图8：上海出口集装箱结算运价指数........................................................................................................................................6图9：邮政数据............................................................................................................................................................................6图10：社会消费品零售同比......................................................................................................................................................6图11：行业市场定价.........................................
