外汇与利率情绪调查：日元引发的担忧

Global curve, but a 2% terminal may do the trick BofA .SentimentonUSrates&USDhassoftenedfollowingsoftUSdata&thedovishJulFOMC. Fed's credentials do not appear eroded.EM sentiment and positioning have returned to Feb26levels,supported bya lowvol/bullish carry environmentJPYfearsvsBOJhopes AnalyticsRalf Preusser, CFARates Strategist ralf.preusser@bofa.comAdarsh SinhaFX and Rates StrategistMLI (UK) bearishness increased considerably over the past month, reaching four-year highs (Exhibit 1).JPYbearishness primarily reflects survey respondents'concerns that the BoJ remains adarsh.sinha@bofa.comMeghan Swiber, CFARates StrategistBofAS Japanese duration (Exhibit 22, Exhibit 44).While bearishness on both Japanese rates andthe JPY is elevated relative to the start of our sample in Dec-2011,positioning appearsless extreme than sentiment would suggest (Exhibit 30, Exhibit 32). To us, this suggests(Exhibit 4).What terminal rate could stabilize the JPY? Most respondents believe that 2% (i.e., four meghan.swiber@bofa.comMichalis RousakisFX Strategist MLI (UK)michalis.rousakis@bofa.comEdvard DavidssonRates Strategist MLI (UK)edvard.davidsson@bofa.comRaghav AdlakhaEMQuant/SovereignStrategist additional hikes) could do the trick (Exhibit 21).Exhibit 1: FX exposure and view 2011-26ytd: JPY MLI (UK)raghav.adlakha@bofa.comGlobal Rates & Currencies ResearchMLI (UK) JPY FX sentiment makes new lows, reaching levels not seen since 2022, while positioning also turnednotablyshorter 40 See Team Page for List of Analysts Our survey was conducted on 712 August 2026. A total of 32 Fund Managersresponded, with USD 467bn AUM. Responsescame from the UK, Continental Europe, Asiaand the US. If you are a benchmarked investor and would like to participate in this survey, please clickthe sign-up link or contact the authors oryour BofA sales representative.Participants in the survey will receive the full set of monthly results but only for therelevant month in which they participate. AbbreviationsAUM: assets under management BoE: Bank of EnglandBoj: Bank of JapanECB: European Central BankEM: emerging marketFOMC:Federal Open Market CommitteeIEEPA: International Emergency EconomicPowers ActNFP: non-farm payrollsPBoC: People's Bank of China Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreportas onlya singlefactor in making their investment decisionRefer to important disclosures on page 24 to 26 By contrast, sentiment toward the USD and US rates has shifted in response to softer bearish on the USD and trimmed their underweights in US duration (Exhibit 2, Exhibit33). Long rates are now the highest conviction trade for the rest of the year (Exhibit 6).The Fed's inflation-fighting credentials do not appear to be eroded. While most respondents still view the Fed's stance as modestly accommodative,recent data havetempered conviction in that view (Exhibit 3, Exhibit 13) softness has tempered this conviction EM:What war?EM views and positioning appear to have brushed off concerns around the Iran War and a more hawkish Fed, with FX and duration exposure both hovering near Feb'26 levels.However, this optimism belies some lingering concerns, as the improvement in exposureappeared concentrated in LatAm assets, and investor positions outstrips their views.This suggests that this sentiment is undergirded by a low-vol/bullish carry environment,rather than a more sanguine reassessment of EM macro fundamentals. A catalyst-heavyfall (Fed meetings, US mid-terms), thus, may stress the conviction of these EM longs. Sentiment SurveyFX and Rates SAugust 2026Long risk remains widely perceived as the most crowded trade Long rates are the highest conviction trade for the remainder ofthe year. Meanwhile, sentiment turned more constructive on riskassets but more negative on the USD conviction remains low priced by markets:Investors see the Al capex cycle as overpriced, but conviction remains low Views on the normalization of Hormuz traffic have turned morepessimistic following recent developments Views on the normalization of Hormuz traffic have turned more pessimistic the $80s in 2H'26, up from the $70s expected a month ago months?The median respondent now expects oil prices in the S80s in 2H26 Exhibit 10: Which central bank is most likely to deliver MORE hikesin 2026 than are currently priced?Most think none of the major central banks will deliver more hikes than Most survey respondents think that none of the major centralbanks is likely to deliver more hik