外汇和利率情绪调查：轻装上阵

Key takeaways Rates and FXGlobal USD exposure is back to neutral for the 1st time since 1Q and duration exposure onlymodestly underweightEA sentiment is souring, most notably in FX. In the UK, investors expect fiscal risks toremain or diminish post-Budget Ralf Preusser,CFARates StrategistMLI (UK)ralf.preusser@bofa.com Light positions, heavy event risk USmarkets are lightly positioned, with USD FX exposure back to neutral for the firsttime since 1Q and duration exposure only modestly underweight (Exhibit 1,Exhibit 41). Meghan Swiber, CFARates StrategistBofASmeghan.swiber@bofa.com While this may partly reflect risk constraints into year-end, the absence of US data haslikely played a role. Along with finely balanced pricing for the December FOMC meeting, Adarsh SinhaFX and Rates StrategistMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)adarsh.sinha@bofa.com The Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA tariffs will matter too. If the use of IEEPA is struckdown, most expect the fiscal channel to dominate market impact, i.e., they see lower Michalis RousakisFX StrategistMLI (UK)michalis.rousakis@bofa.com Fed independence risks are still seen as underpriced, even if respondents perceive themas better priced than last month (Exhibit 14). They expect steeper rates, or a softer USD Raghav AdlakhaEM Quant/Sovereign StrategistMLI (UK)raghav.adlakha@bofa.com Edvard DavidssonRates StrategistMLI (UK)edvard.davidsson@bofa.com Our survey was conducted on 7–12November 2025. A total of 47 FundManagers responded, with USD 641bn AUM.Responses came from the UK, Continental Invitation to joinsurvey If youare a benchmarked investor and wouldlike to participate in this survey, please clickthesign-up link, contact the authors, or your Participants in the survey will receive thefull set of monthly results, but only for therelevant month in which they participate. BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Abbreviations AUM: assets under managementBoJ: Bank of JapanEM: emerging marketFOMC: Federal Open Market CommitteeNFP: non-farm payrollsPBoC: People’s Bank of ChinaRBA: Reserve Bank of AustraliaIEEPA: International Emergency Economic Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies. BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Low confidence in Europe and the UK Euro area sentiment is souring. This is most evident in FX, with EUR longs pared back(Exhibit 43). Germany’s fiscal package is increasingly seen as well priced, with almost aquarter of participants believing its impact to be over-priced in rates (Exhibit 22,Exhibit23). In similar vein, some expect disappointing European growth to challenge the themeof flows out of the US and into Europe (Exhibit 2). Enter expectations of an inflation In the UK, investors expect fiscal risks to remain or diminish post-Budget (Exhibit 3), butmaintain long duration and short GBP bias into the event risk (Exhibit 46,Exhibit 47). Exhibit3: Following theBudget announcement on 26 November, howdo you anticipate UK fiscal concerns to evolve? Exhibit2: I believe the theme of flows out of US into EUR will:Most expect the theme of flows out of US into EUR to be challenged by USequity performance and disappointing European growth Unchanged ordiminishedUK fiscal concerns post-UK budget EM: In a holding pattern EM exposure remained broadly steady in November, with the exposure in rates and FXseeming more resilient than sovereign debt. Across regions, EMEA and LatAm remainedfavored over Asia, with EM Asia rates positioning falling substantially. Upside risks fromUS-China trade tensions appeared to become more salient in October, but a substantial Exhibit5:What rate of tariffs do you expect the US to impose onChina by end-2026? FX and Rates Sentiment SurveyNovember 2025 Long risk remains widely (64%) perceived as the most crowdedtrade. Concerns around USD shorts continue tonotstand out Conviction in short USD continues to fall but that in long rates Investors are almost perfectly split over the most likely AI-narrative. Some see US exceptionalism regaining traction,others expect US AI dominance to be challenged, or the AI Investors are almost perfectly split over the most likely AInarrative Investors perceive AI as positive for growth, but AI implicationsfor inflation are unclear Exhibit9:Expected AI impact on global growth and inflation in2026: Higher growth is main convictionaround AI. Unclear implications for inflation In similar vein, around half of investors expect AI to result in asteeper rates curve but its impact on du