外汇与利率情绪调查：美联储加息成为焦点

Global concerned about downside growth risks BofA . Most see ECB hikes as"risk management", with almost a third viewing them as apolicy mistake and only a few as essential.EM views and positioning rebounded in May after April's multi-year lows. Investorsnow neutral-to-overweight EM issuer debtFed hikes on the radar AnalyticsRalf Preusser, CFARates Strategist ralf.preusser@bofa.comAdarsh SinhaFX and Rates StrategistMLI (UK) while appearing much less concerned about downside growth risks (Exhibit 1).A quarter now see the Fed as the most likely among major central banks to deliver more rate hikesthan currently priced (Exhibit 9). Views on the potential policy-path implications of aWarsh-led Fed are also almost perfectly split (Exhibit 9, Exhibit 15),In rates, rising risks of Fed hikes help explain the waning conviction in"long rates" for adarsh.sinha@bofa.comMeghan Swiber, CFARates StrategistBofAS meghan.swiber@bofa.comMichalis RousakisFX StrategistMLI (UK) Exhibit 25). In FX, US data resilience and an upward-repriced Fed are now seen as themain near-term catalysts for a potentially stronger USD, amid easing“risk off" concerns(Exhibit 13).Exhibit 1: My view on market pricing of US inflation and growth outlook: michalis.rousakis@bofa.comEdvard DavidssonRates Strategist MLI (UK)edvard.davidsson@bofa.comRaghav AdlakhaEM Quant/Sovereign Strategist US growth well priced, inflation upside MLI (UK)raghav.adlakha@bofa.comGlobal Rates & Currencies ResearchMLI (UK) 2026. A total of 60 Fund Managersresponded, with USD 869bn AUM.Responses came from the UK, ContinentalEurope, Asia and the US.Invitationto joinsurvey If you are a benchmarked investor and would like to participate in this survey, please clickthe sign-up link or contact the authors oryour BofA sales representative.Participants in the survey will receive the full set of monthly results but only for therelevant month in which they participate. AbbreviationsAUM: assets under management BoE: Bank of EnglandBoj: Bank of JapanECB: European Central BankEM: emerging marketFOMC:Federal OpenMarket CommitteeIEEPA: International Emergency EconomicPowers ActNFP: non-farm payrollsPBoC: People's Bank of ChinaRBA: Reserve Bank of Australia Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Referto important disclosures onpage26to 28. Investor views on the ECB have becomemore nuanced.Most see potential ECB hikes as "risk management" to ensure price stability, with almost a third viewing them as a policymistake and only a small minority deeming them essential (Exhibit 2).2-3% inflation by end-2027 continues to be seen as the most likely outcome in the Euro area, with risks skewed to the upside - yet the distribution tails have fattened (Exhibit 3).This combination of a potential risk-management approach and fatter inflation tails mayhelp explain why more investors anticipate a somewhat slower reversal of ECB hikesthan last month (Exhibit 21).Meanwhile, the perception of ECB hikes as mostly temporary, better pricing of EGB supply (Exhibit 23), and reduced US growth concerns can help explain why investors havebeen extending in core Europe duration (Exhibit 41). EM:AprilshowersbringMayflowers...but withthornsEM views and positioning rebounded in May after reaching multi-year lows in April. Investors are now neutral-to-overweight EM issuer debt, with local debt moderatelypreferred over EM EXD and EM EXD preferred over other HY debt (Exhibit 68). Thispicture draws a sharp contrast alongside worsening geopolitical and global ratessentiment, raising concerns that the improved sentiment may have shaky foundations. Exhibit 4: Duration exposure and view 2011-26ytd: EMEM duration exposure and views have rebounded from March'26 lows, and lie close to Feb'26 levels FX and Rates :May 2026"Long risk" is now widely considered to be the most crowded trade, ahead of "long commodities",as positioning concernsaround long rates ease 47% Waning conviction in long rates is giving way to greaterconviction in long commodities and short rates Exhibit 6: My highest conviction trade for 2026:Conviction rotates from long rates into long commodities and short rates East conflict, with most now expecting it to end in Q3 Most now expect the Middle East conflict to end in Q3 A vast majority does not expect Hormuz traffic to return to itspre-March status by mid-year, with 19% expecting limited or noprogress by then Exhibit 8: My view o