2Q26预览：平衡（消费者）痛苦与（退款）收益

Hold United States WMT.OQ Retailing/DepartmentStores & Broadlines 2Q Preview: Balancing (Consumer) Pains and(Refund) Gains Research Analyst +1-212-250-0590 Heading into2Qresults,expectationsarenotelevatedforthefirst timeina while, Research Associate+1-212-250-3165 andweseeanarguablymorebalanced set-upthantwomonthsago.SinceWMT'sattendance at our Paris conference,gas prices have spiked,putting pressure onlower-income households,and pharmacy-related top-line headwinds haveintensified (we think an incremental ~40 bps vs. 1Q). This combines with fadinggeneral merchandise pricing tailwinds, likely resulting in WMT U.S. posting acomp of +3.0% to +3.5%, slightly below consensus of +3.7% and 1Q's +4.1%. Research Associate+1-212-250-9179 That said, the underlying business should be healthy. WMT is reinvesting its~$2.9B of tax refunds (2/3 pricing, mostly in consumables, 1/3diesel/transportation offset).Wethinkgrocery-led share gainshave acceleratedpost the early July rollbacks. However, the timing of tariff refunds received vs.spentwillcreatenoiseingrossmarginbetween2Qand3Q.Ultimately,pharmacyheadwinds will continue through the 2H, and incremental sales upside may bedifficult to generate in a cautious and potentially more promotional consumerbackdrop. All in, we remain on the sidelines as we see risk/reward as fairlybalancedatcurrentlevels. Top-line:Wemodel2QSSSgrowthof+3.0%forWalmartUS(prior+3.5%;Street +3.7%) and +3.5% for Sam's Club (unchanged; Street +4.0%). Thisaccounts for price-leddeceleration in General Merchandise,incrementalheadwinds in Health &Wellness sales andlowerincome consumerpressure. Margins/EPS:Our consolidated gross margin is 24.8%(unchanged;Street 24.7%), with EBIT of $8.777B for growth of 10.1% (prior $8.760B,+9.9% growth; Street $8.667B, +9.9%), and EPS of $0.74 (unchanged;Street $0.74; guidance $0.72-$0.74). FY26 Guidance: We believe WMT will move to the high-end of annualguidance of +3.5% to +4.5% cFX and EPS of $2.75-$2.85. For the year,we'remodeling SSS growth of +3.1%forWalmartU.S.(prior+3.2%; Street+3.8%)and +3.7% for Sam's Club (unchanged; Street +4.1%),consolidated gross margin of 24.4% (unchanged and in line with theStreet), EBIT of $33.223B for +6.9% growth (prior $33.189B for +6.8% $2.75-$2.85; unchanged; Street $2.92). value of WMT's largest assets: 1) 40x our 2026 EPS estimate (ex. Flipkart)of s2.87,ourmultiple is abovethe 36x one-yearaverage (29xthree-year)reflectingcontinuedtop-linemomentum,deepersharegains,consistentoperatingincomegrowth,andexpandingimportanceacrossincomecohortsand2)Flipkartbasedon4.5xsales(in-linewiththeacquisitionmultiple). Upside risks include additional share gains as consumerspursuevalueandacceleratedoperatingprofitexpansion.Downsiderisksincludeadecelerationincomptrendsande-commercegrowth,continued gross-margin contraction from increased investments,andelevatedSG&Aduetolaborandnewunitinvestments. Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP-ALTD Appendix 1 exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and othervendors.Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subjectcompanies,andothersources. issued bythis company. investmentbankingrelatedservices. ImportantDisclosuresRequiredbyNon-U.S.Regulators issued by this company. 24 - Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) is or has been over the previous 12 months party to an agreement with thecompanyrelating to theprovisionof services set out in Sections A and B of AnnexIof Directive2014/65/EU,orhasover the previous 12 months been obliged or entitled (as applicable) to pay or receive compensation relating to theprovisionofservicessetout inSectionsAandBofAnnexIofDirective2014/65/EU For disclosurespertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of thisresearch, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on ourwebsiteathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/EquityResearchDisclosures.Asidefromwithinthisreport,important riskandconflictdisclosurescanalsobefoundathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer AnalystCertification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition,recommendationorviewinthisreport.KrisztinaKatai. Walmart Inc DBSI Companies under CoverageBuyHold Company Rating and Dispersion Key companies.Wealsopresent thepercentageof companies whereDeutscheBankhasprovided InvestmentBankingkey and definition of our rating below. Note -percentages are rounded so may not total 100%. Covered: The overall rating distribution across all companies under coverage with a rating. w/Banking relation: Percentage of companies under coverage with a rating within each of the "buy", "hold" and "sell'categories for which Deutsche Bank has provided Investment Banking Services within the previous 12 months. w/MiFID services: Percentage of companies under coverage with a rating within each of the "buy","hold" and "sel