2026年上半年坎帕拉房地产市场表现回顾

Knight Frank Uganda’s performance review of Kampala'sproperty market over the first half of 2026 H1 2026 Executive Summary Uganda’s economy carried solid momentum into 2026, withGDP growth projected at 6.4% for FY2025/26 and seventeenconsecutive months of private-sector expansion recorded byJune. The half’s defining shock was external, the escalationof the Middle East conflict from late February disrupted theStrait of Hormuz, lifted Brent crude above US$100 per barrel,and fed through to domestic pump prices, a weaker shilling(down 2.8% year-on-year), and rising fuel-driven inflation,which climbed to 3.7% by June though still the lowest in theregion. The Bank of Uganda held the Central Bank Rate at9.75%, tightening instead through a Cash Reserve Require-ment increase to 11.0%, keeping borrowing conditions broad-ly supportive of property demand. The January general elec-tions paused activity across every property sector in the firstquarter; the release of deferred decisions thereafter shapedmuch of the half’s performance. Industrial Occupancy held above 80% across key zones, with ware-house rents of US$3.00–$7.00 per sqm and a wideningpremium for modern facilities. Namanve was the clearestgainer as its €215 million infrastructure programme passed80% completion. EACOP reached 82% completion withfirst oil targeted for H2 2026, and UNOC confirmed theUS$390 million Kabalega Industrial Park, anchoring theAlbertine region’s industrial pipeline. Valuations & Advisory The Valuation Act, 2026 came into force in March, establish-ing the Institute of Certified Valuers of Uganda, mandatorylicensing, and national valuation standards, the profession’smost significant institutional reform in years, with implemen-tation now the key variable. Outlook Residential The market remained subdued and firmly in buyers’ andtenants’ favour, with low enquiry levels, extended transac-tion times, and abundant stock for sale. Prime rents edgedup (2-bed +1.7%, 3-bed +0.6%) and occupancy improvedto 84%, gains driven by absorption and realistic pricingrather than stronger demand. The tenant base continued torebalance, expatriate enquiries declined while demand fromUgandan nationals rose, international consultants arrived ingreater numbers but on leaner monthly budgets, and 3–6month furnished lets proliferated. Developers are respond-ing to a widening affordability gap with flexible paymentstructures, including rent-to-own products under consider-ation in both prime and secondary markets. H2 2026 hinges on first oil, infrastructure delivery, and thepersistence of fuel-driven cost pressures. Conditions willcontinue to favour occupiers and buyers across most sec-tors, rewarding realistic pricing, modern specifications, andproducts aligned to the rising Ugandan occupier and buyer. Office Performance was defined by recovering confidence andnew supply. Grade A rents strengthened to US$17.0 per sqmwith occupancy at 87%, driven by flight-to-quality reloca-tions, most visibly the JLOS institutions’ move to JLOS Tow-ers while the Grade AB segment softened to US$14.0 persqm as vacated secondary stock returned to a saturatedmarket. Parking hardened from a preference into a prerequi-site. The market remains tenant-driven, with well-managedmodern assets outperforming ageing stock. Retail Formal retail traded unevenly: footfall softened as fuel costs,tighter household budgets and the Ebola outbreak cutdiscretionary trips, yet occupancy across Knight Frank-man-aged malls rose year-on-year and prime rents held firm ontight supply. Shoppers consolidated essential purchasesinto fewer, larger baskets. Neighbourhood centres ledleasing activity, and the shift toward digital payments andmixed-use formats gathered pace. Economic update K E Y H I G H L I G H T S ●Inflation↟but lowest in the region. ●CRR↟to 11.0% in March 2026, first hike since Au-gust 2023. ●CBR held at 9.75%. ●Shilling ↡ 2.8% y/y pressured by the Strait ofHormuz disruption but remains among Africa’s mostresilient currencies through the turbulence. ●PMI at 56.5 in June 2026 - 17 straight months ofprivate-sector expansion. Economic Activity Uganda’s economy is projected to grow by 6.4% inFY2025/26, up from 6.3% in FY2024/25 as per the Prelim-inary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates from theUganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS). The services sectorremains the largest contributor to GDP, accounting for42.1% of total output, unchanged from the previous financialyear. The agriculture sector’s contribution increased slightlyto 26.2%, from 26.1% in FY2024/25, while the industrysector’s share declined marginally to 24.1%, compared to24.3% in the preceding year. Overall, the sectoral compo-sition of the economy has remained largely stable, with theservices sector continuing to underpin economic activity. Uganda’s robust economic performance in the first halfof 2026 was supported by expanding investment, exportgrowth, agricultural productivity and oil-related activityahead of first co