2025年上半年坎帕拉房地产市场表现回顾

E X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y Uganda’s economy expanded by 6.3% in FY 2024/25,supported by strong performance in the services sectorand improved trade dynamics. Inflationary pressures per-sisted but remained contained, with headline inflation ris-ing moderately to 3.9% by June 2025. The Uganda Shillingappreciated by 3.8% year-on-year, aided by steady foreignexchange inflows, while the Central Bank Rate remainedunchanged at 9.75%. 6.3%Economic growth rate 3.9%Moderate rise in headline inflation In the prime residential sector, the market softened fur-ther as new supply met shifting demand. Occupancy lev-els dipped by 1% to 80%, and average rents for two-bed-room units declined by 7%. The tenant base shifted, witha decline in Western expatriate demand partially offsetby growing interest from Asian professionals. Second-ary suburbs experienced growth in both occupancy andshort-stay listings, underlining changing lifestyle prefer-ences and affordability dynamics. 80%Prime residential occupancy rates The commercial office sector saw a continued drop inoccupancy rates—falling by 5% and 2% for Grade A andAB spaces, respectively—as new completions outpacedabsorption. Leasing remained active, driven by smallerspace requirements and demand from consulting, ICT,and professional services firms. A noticeable shift fromtraditional CBD offices to suburban offices was observed,with growing interest in condominium-style offices forownership flexibility. 13%Rise in shopper footfall 5% & 2% Drop in occupancy rates for GradeA and AB rentals respectively Retail rebounded in H1 2025, with shopper footfall rising13%, grocery turnover up 8% year-on-year, and retail oc-cupancy across Knight Frank-managed malls improvingby 2%. New international brands, mall activations, andimproved infrastructure supported consumer traffic, whilerental rates remained stable. The industrial sector remained one of the most resilientsegments, with occupancy levels above 80% and ware-house rents holding steady at $3–$7 per square meterper month. Demand was fuelled by the agro-processing,FMCG, and manufacturing sectors, while new warehousedevelopments emerged in Nalukolongo and Namanve.The Uganda Tax Amendment Act 2025, offering tax in-centives to local SMEs, and continued infrastructure up-grades, including progress on the Standard Gauge Rail-way, further strengthened sector fundamentals. The industrial sector remained oneof the most resilient segments, withoccupancy levels above 80% andwarehouse rents holding steady at$3–$7 per square meter per month. As Uganda heads toward the 2026 general elections,cautious optimism prevails across the real estate market.Sector performance in H2 2025 will depend on marketadaptability, infrastructure delivery, and alignment withevolving tenant expectations. E C O N O M I C U P D AT E H I G H L I G H T S Economic Activity Preliminary estimates from the Uganda Bureau of Statis-tics indicate the economy grew by 6.3% in FY2024/25, upfrom 6.1% in the previous fiscal year. The services sectorremained the largest contributor to GDP at 41.9%, fol-lowed by agriculture (26.2%) and industry (24.5%). Look-ing ahead, the economy is projected to grow by 7% inFY2025/26, driven by oil production, rising industrial out-put, and increased digital innovation. Inflation Inflationary pressures persisted through the first half of2025, albeit at a moderate pace, underpinned by stableexchange rate conditions. However, ongoing geopoliticaltensions—particularly in the Middle East—and evolvingtrade policies continued to influence global commoditymarkets, resulting in price fluctuations for oil, food, andother key goods. Headline inflation edged up from 3.6% in January to 3.9%in June, the highest level recorded during the period, driv-en mainly by rising transport, food, and energy costs. Coreinflation remained relatively elevated, starting at 4.2% inJanuary, easing to 3.6% in March, before climbing backto 4.2% in May and holding stable in June. These move-ments reflect persistent structural price pressures, espe-cially in housing and service-related sectors. While overallinflation remained contained, food and energy categoriesexperienced notable volatility, most prominently, a rise infuel prices toward the end of the period contributed to theupward trend. 7%Economic growth rateprojection FY2025/26 4.3%Core inflation Source:Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) “Most prominently, a rise in fuel prices toward the end of the periodcontributed to the upward trend.” Monetary policy Business activity Business sentiment remained positive in H1 2025. TheBusiness Tendency Index (BTI) averaged 58.7 in Q1, peak-ing at 59.4 in February before declining gradually to 59.2 inJune 2025. The Stanbic Bank Headline Purchasing Man-agers’ Index (PMI) dropped to 49.5 in January—its lowestlevel since March 2024—due to reduced output, subduedconsumer demand, and a slowdown in new business in-flows. However, the PMI rebounded to 52.9 in March,