中国房地产行业：北京宽松政策落地 利好9月销售旺季

EquitiesREMD Beijing relaxation:Well-timedahead of peak season China ◆Beijingeasing comes at the right time, which shouldbolstersentiment andsafeguard recovery Michelle Kwok*Head of Asia Real Estate and HK Equity ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedmichellekwok@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6918 ◆Interim focus: margin recovery trend and the sustainability ofluxurysales Oliver Yu*Analyst, Asia Real EstateThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedoliver.y.o.x.yu@hsbc.com.hk+852 2288 2050 ◆Prefer CR Land and C&D, both rated Buy Modest easinginto peak season.Beijing rolled outrelaxations onhome purchaserestrictionson 7 August, cutting the required social insurance/income tax tenure for non-local households to buyhomeswithin the 5thRing Road from two years to one year. Thepolicy timing lands right before the“Golden September, Silver October”and should helpunlock some pent-up demandafter the summer lull. Thispolicy move is in line with ourexpectation thatlocal governmentswilldeploymodest easing measures to sustain salesmomentum into peak season (Defying the seasonal lull, 3 August2026). Wecontinuetobelievethat the sector isina gradual fundamental recovery even without substantialincremental stimulus. Policy, in our view, is increasingly serving as a safeguarding ratherthanastimulusrole,stabilising price expectation andanchoringhomebuyer sentiment. Stephen Wang*, CFAAnalyst, Asia Real EstateThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedstephen.wang@hsbc.com.hk+852 2284 1675 Brian Yu*Associate, Asia Real Estate Research The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedbrian.d.yu@hsbc.com.hk+852 28227281 Charlotte Ye*AssociateGuangzhou Playbook forupcoming interim results.Greentown’s profit alert(Equity Snap:Greentown China (3900 HK): 1H26 profit decline expected; land investment accelerates,10 August)released this morningagainhighlights continuedsectorearningspressure.That said, we think themarket is already well aware of the legacylandbankdrag, andthe incremental negative surprise islimited.With a broad-based recovery takingtime,developersstillhave incentives to kitchen sink legacy issuesin 2026 earnings, creating acleaner base foranearningsrecovery from 2027eonwards.Into 1H26 results, wesuggest lookingbeyond headline weakness and focusingmore on: 1)themarginoutlook embedded in unbooked sales and presold projects, which should providebetter visibility onthe pace and magnitude ofmargin recovery; 2)managementconfidence inluxurysalesstrength and pricing upside–whether robust high-endmarket is sustainable and pricing outlookfor land acquired at high A.V. * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Offshore interest isrebuilding. We have recently seen increasing engagementfromoffshoreinvestors, driven by improving sector fundamentals and sustainedshare price outperformance of key names, e.g. CR Land.Investors’preference isskewed towardsdevelopers with greater residential exposure, while remainingcautious on retail exposure.Feedback continues to be supportive of our preferenceformainlandChina developers over HK developers(Better surprise vector: mainlandChina over HK developers, 8 July 2026). The key debate now is when recovery isstrong enough toovercomevaluation hurdles and unlockmoreupside. HSBC 13th Annual China Conference Stock picks:We continue to see greater upside surprise potential for residentialdevelopers, favouring CRL and C&D (both Buy-rated) for their leading positioninhigh-end projects and stronger earnings visibility.We also like COLI (Buy), whichhassignificant exposure in Beijing. Shenzhen | 1-2 September 2026 Find out more Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Property managersCOPL2669 HKHold Valuation charts Valuation and risks Disclosure appendix Analyst Certification The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s)whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), andany otherviews or forecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on the back page of the research report, accurately reflecttheir personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to thespecificrecommendation(s) or views contained in this research repor