亚洲G3债券基准回顾2025——固定收益信贷评论

Fixed Income Daily Market Update固定收益部市场日报 Glenn Ko, CFA高志和(852) 3657 6235glennko@cmbi.com.hk We hope you found our commentaries and ideashelpful. We seek toelevate our efforts and value-add further in the coming year. We highlyappreciate your support to us in Sell-Side Analysts of the polls of “TheAsset Asian G3 Bond Benchmark Review 2025”.Thank you for yoursupport! Cyrena Ng, CPA吳蒨瑩(852) 3900 0801cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk In CNH space, the new CGB 27-35s (lotus bonds) were unchanged from ROat par this morning. The new SWIPRO 28-35s were unchanged. In USDspace,the new KOHNPW Float 30 tightened 4bps from RO.SHIKON/NSINTW 34-35s tightened 4-5bps. VLLPM 29 was up 0.8pt. JerryWang王世超(852)3761 8919jerrywang@cmbi.com.hk Chinese properties:1H25 contracted sales declined 19.0% yoy. See below. SMCGL:SMCGL received USD30.277mn of SMCGL 7 Perp (o/s amtUSD193.392mn)and USD192.914mn of SMCGL 5.7 Perp(o/s amtUSD493.337mn) validly offered for the exchange. The FPG of the new Perpis at 8.95%, in line with our FV estimation. See our comments on11 Jul’25.SMCGL 8.125 Perp up 0.1pt this morning while other SMCGL Perps wereunchanged. Trading desk comments交易台市场观点 PLEASE READ THE AUTHORCERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGEYesterday, KXIAHC priced 5NC2 and 8NC3 bonds at par to yield 6.25% and6.625% (IPT at 6.375% and 6.75% area respectively). KOHNPW priced a 5yrfloating rated bond at SOFR+79 (IPT at SOFR+115 area). Meanwhile in KR,therecentnewNACF/NHSECS28-30stightened1-4bps.HYUELE/HYNMTR27-35stightened2-3bps.InChineseIGs,HAOHUA/TENCNT/MEITUA 28-30s tightened 1-3bps. In financials, AU/JPpaperswereunderbetterbuying.ANZ/CBAAU/WSTPandSMBCAC/SUMIFL/SUMIBK/NTT 28-40s were unchanged to 4bps tighter.SUMIBK/MIZUHO Float 30-31s were 1-3bps tighter. In insurance, NSINTW34 tightened 3bps amid mixed flows, SHIKON 35 closed unchanged. See ourcomments on Taiwan lifers on16 Jul ’25. MYLIFE /NIPLIF 51-55s andFUKOKUPerp were 0.1-0.3pt lower.In AT1s,HSBC 7.05/INTNED7.25/SOCGEN 6.75 Perps were 0.1-0.4pt lower. In HK, AIA/HKAA/MTRC 30-35s were 1-2bps tighter. The long end of HKAA/MTRC 51-62s were 0.5-1.3pts higher (2-8bps tighter inspreads). REGH Perp/LASUDE 26 lowered0.4-0.6pt. CKPH/CKINF Perps were down 0.2-0.3pt. NWDEVL Perps/27-31swere unchanged to 0.2pt lower. Last evening, media reported NWD is inpreliminarytalks to divest 11 Skies airport mall for up to HKD17bn(cUSD2.2bn). In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27-29s were 0.2pt lower.Media reported Vanke is seeking to extend some of its onshore bank loansby as much as 10 years. On the other hand, ROADKG 28-30s were 0.1-0.4pthigher. In SE Asia, ADSEZ 27-31s were unchanged to 0.2pt higher following Adani Port announced tender offers on ADSEZ 4.2 08/04/27, ADSEZ 4 07/30/27 and ADSEZ 4.375 07/03/29.VLLPM 27-29s declined 0.3-0.7pt. In CNH space, CGB priced 2yr, 5yr and 10yr CNH bonds at par to yield 1.43%, 1.55% and 1.72% respectively.The new CNH SWIPRO 28 was unchanged, while the new SWIPRO 30/35 were 0.4-2.5pts higher from ROs atpar. The new CNH ZZREAL 2.7 28 rose 0.5pt from RO at par. There were buying interests on higher yieldingLGFVs CNH names yielding 6% or higher such as LZJHFH 7 28s/CHDOHU 7.6 28s and USD names yielding7% or higher such as FZSZJJ 7 28s/ZKCONS 6.8 28s. In SOE perps, CHPWCN Perp was down 0.1pt. LastTradingDay’s Top Movers MarcoNews Recap宏观新闻回顾 Macro–S&P (+0.32%), Dow (+0.53%) and Nasdaq(+0.25%) were higher on Wednesday. US Jun’25 PPI wasunchanged mom, lower than the market expectation of +0.2% mom. Media reported that Trump softens tone onChina to secure a summit with Xi and a trade deal. Trump eyes tariff rate of 10% or 15% for morethan 150countries as he moves forward with his trade agenda.UST yield was lower onWednesday, 2/5/10/30 yield at3.88%/3.99%/4.46%/5.01%. Desk Analyst Comments分析员市场观点 Chinese properties:1H25 contracted sales declined 19.0% yoy In Jun’25, 31 developers under our radar reported contracted sales totaled RMB192.5bn, decreased 26.6% yoyfrom RMB262.1bn in Jun’24. 16 out of 31 developers reported yoy increase in contracted sales in Jun’25, upfrom 5 developers in May’25.We view theyoydecrease was partly due to the high base in Jun’24,afteraseries of supportive measures launched in mid-May’24. Meanwhile, we viewthe mom recovery signs ofstabilization, thanks tothe policy stimulus to support the economy such as cutting the 7-day reverse repo rateto 1.4% from 1.5% as well as the RRR by 0.5 pct pts. In 1H25, the cumulative contracted sales of 31 developers dropped 19.0% yoy to RMB908.6bn.4 out of 31developersreported yoy increases in contracted sales in 1H25. CHINSC (RMB6.4bn), CHJMAO (RMB53.3bn)and YUEXIU (RMB61.5bn) were the better performers with 34%, 20% and 11% yoy increase in contractedsales, respectively. The bottom performers were FUTLAN/FTLNHD (RMB10.3bn), GEMDAL (RMB17.2bn) andCIFIHG (RMB10.2bn) that their contracted sales dropped 56%, 53%, 50% yoy in 1H25, respectively. As per NBS, the new home prices in 14 out of 70 cities