主题投资：物理人工智能——绘制人形机器人价值链

Physical AI: Mapping theHumanoid Value Chain Whileoftenframed as a hardware opportunity, humanoidsare as much an AI compute story as a robotics one. Weexamine the full humanoid value stack (and identify 100+companies), from foundation models and computeinfrastructure to actuators, sensors, batteries and otherenabling components. Thematic Investing William Thompson+1 212 526 8641william.s.thompson@barclays.comBCI, US Hannah Greenberg+1 212 526 2457hannah.greenberg@barclays.comBCI, US Humanoids are as much a compute story as a robotics one.Humanoids represent the next AIfrontier, extending intelligence from the digital to the physical world. Whileoftenframed as ahardware opportunity, the constraint, at least today, is intelligence. Unlike traditional robots,humanoids require perception, reasoning, and adaptive behavior, making compute a keyenabler. Although large-scale economic deployment is likely closer to 2035 than 2030, computeis needed earlier to support simulation, synthetic data generation, and foundation modeltraining. By contrast, hardware faces a chicken-and-egg problem: scaling is constrained untilreliability, safety, and autonomy are proven, while low volumes limit cost reduction, supplierinvestment, and standardization. Actuators dominate costs (~30–50%), with high-precisiongearing supply concentrated in Japan and rare earth dependencies heavily concentrated inChina. European Technology HardwareSimon Coles, CFA+44 (0)20 3555 4519simon.coles@barclays.comBarclays, UK European Capital GoodsTimothy Lee, CFA+44 (0)20 7773 6879timothy.lee@barclays.comBarclays, UK UK Capital GoodsJonathan Hurn, CFA+44 (0)20 3134 0468jonathan.hurn@barclays.comBarclays, UK U.S. Industrial Technology &DistributorsGuy Hardwick+1 212 526 2120guy.hardwick@barclays.comBCI, US China TechnologyJiong Shao, CFA+1 212 526 5562jiong.shao@barclays.comBCI, US U.S. Autos & MobilityDan Levy+1 212 526 3212dan.levy@barclays.comBCI, US FIGURE 1. Anatomy of a humanoid: from compute to components Source: Barclays Research Executive Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4Humanoid System Architecture Overview. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6Humanoid Cost Trajectory: From Prototypes to Scale. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8Compute & Foundation Models: The Brain. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10Simulation Compute: The Digital Training Ground. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11Foundation Model Training: Building the Brain. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12On-Robot Compute: The Edge Intelligence Layer. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13Compute Hardware &SoftwareEcosystem. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13Foundation Models. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14Actuators: Muscles & Joints. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16Actuator Precision Reducers & Bearings. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16Actuator Motors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19Integrated Actuator Modules. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20Actuator Materials. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22Control, Feedback & Connectivity: The Nervous System. . . . . . . . . . . . . 24Sensory System: Eyes, Ears & Touch. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27Batteries: The Energy Source. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29Structure: The Body. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31Sector Thoughts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .32European Technology Hardware & Asia Semis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32U.S. Autos & Mobility. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33U.S. Industrial Technology & Distributors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34European Capital Goods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35China Technology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37Related Reports. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .