绘制塑料价值链：了解原始塑料生产上限的社会经济影响的框架

A FRAMEWORK TO UNDERSTAND THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS OFA PRODUCTION CAPONVIRGINPLASTICS APRIL2024 ABOUT OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics was founded in 1981 as a commercial venture with Oxford University’s business college to provideeconomic forecasting and modelling toUK companies and financial institutions expanding abroad. Since then, wehave become one of the world’sforemost independent global advisory firms, providing reports, forecasts andanalytical tools onmore than200 countries,100industries,and8,000 citiesand regions. Our best-in-class globaleconomic and industry models and analytical tools give us an unparalleled ability to forecast external market trendsandassess their economic, social and business impact. Headquartered in Oxford, England, with regionalcentresin New York, London, Frankfurt, and Singapore,OxfordEconomics has offices across the globe in Belfast, Boston, Cape Town, Chicago, Dubai,Dublin,Hong Kong, LosAngeles, Mexico City, Milan, Paris, Philadelphia, Stockholm, Sydney, Tokyo, and Toronto. We employ600 staff, includingmore than350professional economists, industry experts, and business editors—one of the largest teams ofmacroeconomists and thought leadership specialists. Our global team is highly skilled in a full range of researchtechniques and thoughtleadership capabilities from econometric modelling, scenario framing, and economic impactanalysis to market surveys, case studies, expert panels, and web analytics. Oxford Economics is a key adviser to corporate, financial and government decision-makers and thought leaders. Ourworldwide client base now comprises over2,000 international organizations, including leading multinationalcompanies and financial institutions; key government bodies and trade associations; and top universities,consultancies, and think tanks. APRIL2024 All data shown in tables and chartsareOxford Economics’ own data, except where otherwise stated and cited infootnotes, andarecopyright © Oxford Economics Ltd. This report isproperty ofICCAand may notbe published or distributed without theirprior writtenpermission. Theopinionsandconclusionsincluded in the report have been reached independently by and reflect solely the viewsof Oxford Economics. They do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of ICCA. The modelling and resultspresented here are based on information provided by third parties, upon which Oxford Economics has relied inproducing its report and forecasts in good faith. Any subsequent revision or update of those data will affect theassessments and projections shown. To discuss the report further please contact: Henry Worthington:hworthington@oxfordeconomics.comAlice Gambarin:agambarin@oxfordeconomics.comOxford Economics4 Millbank, London SW1P 3JA, UKTel: +44 203 910 8061 TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of contents....................................................................................................................................3Executive summary................................................................................................................................21.............Introduction........................................................................................................................112.............Policy context.....................................................................................................................133.............The global value chain....................................................................................................174.............The implications of a global cap on virgin plastics.............................................345.............Alternative policy options.............................................................................................466.............Conclusion...........................................................................................................................49Appendix 1: industry exposure matrix........................................................................................51Appendix 2: data sources.................................................................................................................52 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY THERE IS AGROWING PROBLEM OF PLASTIC POLLUTION Plastic has become omnipresent on retailershelves, in our homesand businesses, and inmanyproductsand infrastructurescritical to modern life. From packaged groceries to state-of-the-artmedical supplies,fromlightweightvehiclestobuilding and construction applications, it is usedextensively thanks to its versatility andperformance. In recent years, theissues created by plastic pollutionhave gained increased scrutiny and prominence.In March 2022, the United Nations Environment Assembly (UNEA) decided to forge a legally bindinginternational agreement to end plastic pollution by 2040. The firstproposed optionin the currentdraftforesees the implementation of a global production cap on primary plasticpolymers. The global plastics