2026年汇丰前海证券AI药物研发行业观点

EquitiesBiotechnology AIDDmarketingtakeaway: Clinicalvalidationseparateswinners China ◆Investorsdebateonwhetherclinical validationorassetownershipisthestrongest competitive moat Linda Shu*, PhD (Reg. No. S1700522120001)Head of China Healthcare ResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedlinda.y.l.shu@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 755 88983246 ◆2H26 catalysts center on clinical progress, evolvingtechnologies and partnerships Andre Sun* (Reg. No. S1700526040001)Analyst, China HealthcareHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedandre.h.j.sun@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 21 50662034 ◆Our thesisisunchanged; Buy on Insilico for its leading asset,Hold on XtalPi on more visibility in sustainable moat Evie Liu* (Reg. No. S1700119110001)AssociateShenzhen We have more than 10 clientrequest meetings postourinitiation ontheAIDDsectorover last week. Key debates are asfollows: * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Interest in robustcapex with upcomingclinical validation.Investorsshowedstronginterestinthe fast-growingAI drug discovery (AIDD)sector.Our core thesis was broadly validated:Insilico is viewed asanasset-backedAIDD storywith higher visibility, while XtalPi’s modelisperceived as an AI-enabledplatformmodelwith self-developed pre-clinical pipeline.Thedifferencematters asinvestorsappreciateasset ownership: Insilico’srentosertib has reachedPhase III, while our broader screen covering globalAI drugpipelines (exhibit 1)isreinforcingthe scarcity value of clinicallyvalidated AI-discovered assets.We seeclinical validationasthe clearestsector-wide valuation differentiatorin 2H26. Still concernedoverrising competition.Investors worried frontier AIcompanies, CROs, pharmas and private platformswould enter AIDD, anddisruptive technologies maydullthe edge of existing platforms.We viewcompetition as a sign of afast-growingmarket rather than an immediatethesisdisruptor. Capable entrants can validate the technology andmayexpand the addressable market. We summarizemajor disruptivetechnologies, from generative protein design and agentic AI R&D to self-driving laboratories and frontier AI-biology platforms (exhibit 2).Further, wethinkthe strongest moat is shifting away from algorithms towardsproprietarybiology data, experimental feedback loops,and most importantly, clinicalvalidation. Insilico remains a meaningful leadervsearlier-stage competitors. Keycatalysts in 2027.First, overseas technology progress,particularlyIsomorphicLabs’(unlisted) potentialclinical transitioninend-2026(source: IntuitionLabs), will be a key eventforfrontier AI capabilities translatinginto clinical drug assets.We think capital and model capability still need1+years to be converted into Ph II/III clinicalproof. Second, continued clinicalprogress should supportvalidatingdifferentAIDDmodels. Third,newpartnerships in 2H26provide incrementalinvestmentforAIDD platform. HSBC 13th Annual China Conference MaintainBuy on Insilico, Hold on XtalPi.WepreferInsilico, with aprovenmonetization model and optionality upside from its clinical asset ownership.ForXtalPi,whichhas built a sizablescience platformwith AI,we stillseekgreater visibility onitssustainable moat and assetdevelopment. Shenzhen | 1-2 September 2026 Find out more Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in Issuer of report:HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBCQianhai Securitiesat:https://www.research.hsbc.com Valuation and risks Risks Disclosure appendix Analyst Certification The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s)whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), andany otherviews or forecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on the back page of the research report, accurately reflecttheir personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to thespecificrecommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Linda Shu, PhD and Andre Sun Important disclosures Equities: Stock ratings and basis for financial analysis HSBC and its affiliates, including the issuer of this report (“HSBC”) believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stockshoulddepend on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations and thatinvestors utilise various disciplines and investment horizons when making investment decisions. Ratings should not be used orrelied on in isolation as inves