Qiagen：这次会不同吗？维持买入评级

RatingBuy Company Update EuropeGermany HealthcareLife Sciences Tools &DiagnosticsIs This Time Different? We Remain Buyers Valuation & Risks Jan Koch, CFAResearch Analyst+49-69-910-47428 Summary takeaway Q2 showed the anticipated improvement in the underlying business and came inahead of both company and market expectations. While Q3 guidance is belowconsensus, we believe this reflects conservatism rather than a deterioration inunderlying trends. Excluding the discontinued business, the guidance impliesalmost no sequential improvement despite easier comparables. In particular, thelower end of the sales range is difficult to reconcile, even assuming a modestdecline in TB. We therefore continue to believe that the 2026 guidance isachievable, although it implies 5-6% CER growth in Q4 against easier comparables. Falko FriedrichsResearch Analyst+49-69-910-36270 Fynn Scherzler Research Analyst+49-69-910-40764 Sachin GadilingappaResearch Associate Qiagen’s underlying markets have begun to improve gradually, while recentproduct launches should provide further support to growth. Nevertheless, theinvestmentcase remains dominated by the strategic review,including thepossibility that Qiagen could be acquired. Although we cannot argue that theprobability of a transaction is higher this time, we see a more attractive risk-rewardprofile with the shares trading at 16x 2027E P/E. A deal at the level cited in theReuters article—at least $50 per share—would imply ~20% upside. Conversely, webelieve the shares would likely retrace by only a mid-single-digit percentage if nobinding interest materialises. Key changes Valuation – Target Price Raised to $47 We have left our earnings estimates unchanged, although our sales estimates havecome down slightly following updated FX assumptions. We have raised our target2027E/28E P/E multiple to 16x from 15x to reflect the recent re-rating across the LifeSciences sector. As a result, our target price increases to $47 from $43. 10 August 2026Life Sciences Tools & DiagnosticsQiagen Still Upside Potential from Current Levels We continue to view Qiagen as an attractive takeover target. Unlike in January,when we downgraded the stock toHoldfollowing renewed takeover speculation,our probability-weighted scenario analysis still points to an attractive risk-rewardprofile at current levels. Theminimum $50/share valuationreferenced in theReuters article implies a19x 2027E P/E multiple, a level we believe should beachievable, including for a private equity buyer. While this would represent apremium to Hologic's recent acquisition multiple of ~17x P/E, we believe Qiagen'ssuperior profitability, strong cash generation and greater exposure to Life Sciencesend-markets justify the higher valuation. A transaction at$50/share would imply roughly 20% upsidefrom current levels.Conversely, should no binding offer emerge, we would expect only amid-single-digit share price correction, in our view. Importantly, while Qiagen shares rose 11%following the takeover headlines, the underlying backdrop has improved sincethen, with accelerating demand trends and a broader re-rating across the LifeSciences sector supporting a higher fundamental valuation. Investors can use the sensitivity tables below to estimate potential offer prices (inUS$) based on our2027 estimatesand a range of transaction multiples. 10 August 2026Life Sciences Tools & DiagnosticsQiagen Chronicle of Takeover Interest in Qiagen The chart below illustrates the impact of M&A speculation on Qiagen's stock priceover the past six years. Key observations events are explained below nNovember 14, 2019: The initial Thermo Fisher approach, where TMO wasconsidering a purchase of Qiagen and approached the company about apotential deal, triggered a sharp +14% jump, pushing the stock from €32.87to €37.47. nMarch 3, 2020: The formal deal announcement by TMO to buy Qiagen forapproximately €9 billion ($10 billion) at €39 per share in cash, representinga 23% premium to the prior day's closing price, drove shares up +16.7% to€41.43, representing the agreed €39 per share offer price plus marketspeculation. nAugust 13, 2020: The deal termination by TMO , after the tender offer fellshort with only approximately 47% of Qiagen shares tendered (below theminimum threshold for acceptance) and an activist investor's opposition. nFebruary 8, 2021: the US diagnostic company Quidel Corp.was weighing acombination with Qiagen . Quidel had made a preliminary approach toQiagen to gauge interest in a potential deal, according to Bloomberg. nNovember 3, 2021: bioMérieux merger exploration, where Qiagen andFrench rival bioMérieux were exploring a potential combination that wouldunite two of Europe's biggest medical diagnostics providers, causing bothBioMérieux and Qiagen shares to climb, according to Bloomberg. nNovember 16, 2021: Talks of renewed Thermo Fisher interest, sparked byan M&A-focused blog issuing an alert indicating TMO may come back witha fresh ta