云经济学对标分析揭示风险与估值差异

Software differences Azure,AWSandGooglecloud enjoythebestROiC,butAWS'ROiC seems boosted by highershort-duration leasing Head of US Technology ResearchHSBC Securities (USA) inc.stephen.bersey@us.hsbc.com+1 212 5254153Abhishek Shukla*,CFA + On a risk-adjusted basis, we conclude Azure and GoogleCloud aremostattractively priced whileCoreWeave is least Senior Analyst, TechnologyHSBC Bank Middle East Limited, DIFCabhishek2.shukla@hsbc.com+97145093343Sameer Lam* +Highcustomerconcentrationrisk;OpenAl/Anthropicaccountfor c50% of OCl, Azure, Google Cloud and AWS RPO Global SoftwareAnalystHSBC Bank plcsameer.lam@hsbc.com+44 20 7992 3780Nicolas Cote-Colisson* Azure,AwSand GoogleenjoybestRoic:WeestimateMicrosoft Azure,AmazonAWS and Google Cloud CY27e ROIC at 14.6%, 18.9% and 16.0% vs single-digitpercentages for Oracle cloud infrastructure and CoreWeave.We believe the inclusionof general-purpose cloud as opposed tomore commoditized GPU-focused cloud inAzure,AWS and Google Cloud helps them earn superior returns.As long as OpenAland Anthropic finances or liquidity remain strong, we see little reason for Amazon,continued access to customerfinancing or equity infusions. MD, Head of Global Tech PlatformsHSBC Continental Europenicolas.cote-colisson@hsbcib.com+44 20 7991 6826Paul Rossington* SeniorGlobal TechPlatforms AnalystHSBC Bank plcpaul.rossington@hsbcib.com+442079916734 Aws has higher short-duration contractexposure:AwS returns seem bolsteredby a higherportionof short-term contracts.We estimateAWS's RPO (remainingperformance obligations)cover is 2.5 years of its HSBC expected NTM (next 12months) revenue vs 3.4x for Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud.Short-term contractsoffer higher prices,but also higher re-leasing risks.CoreWeaveand OCI's RPOaccount for 6.4 and 18.8 years of their NTM revenue,respectively Charlie Rothbarth*Global Tech Platforms AnalystHSBC Bank plccharlie.rothbarth@hsbc.com+44 2032685284 Mohammed Khallouf*,CFAGlobalTech Platforms AnalystHSBC Bank Middle East Limited, DIFCmohammed.khallouf@hsbc.com+97145093337 Microsoft Azureand Googlecloud offerlowest EV/EBIT:We estimate MicrosoftAzure is trading at an implied 2028e EV/non-GAAP EBIT after share-basedcompensation of 14.1xvsAmazonAwS at 18.2xandCoreWeave at 27.0x.Oracle isalso inexpensive at 14.0x, but has higher financial risks. Google Cloud is trading atthe cheapest market-implied 2028e EV/non-GAAP EBIT after SBC of 10.1x but asc75% of Google's value comes fromnon-cloud business, ouranalysis is dependenton correctly valuing the non-cloud business. Frank Lee*GlobalHeadof TechHardware&Semi ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedfrank.lee@hsbc.com.hk+852 29966916 *Employedbyanon-USaffliateofHSBC Securities (USA) Inc, andisnot registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Oracle offers best Ev/Remainingperformanceobligation:OCIhasthe lowestimplied EV/RPO of 0.45x, likely reflecting far dated growth and market concernsaround financing.CoreWeave is trading at a higherEV/RPO of 0.92x even thoughwe believe financing risks are higherfor CoreWeave than for Oracle.EV/RPO islowerforbothcompaniesthanforhyperscalers asweexpectlowermargins forCoreWeave and OCl. Microsoft Azure (2.87x) and Google Cloud (2.17x) are tradingat 2-3x EV/RPO reflecting market confidence about their margins and execution. HSBCFundingtheFutureSurvey Al megadeals and the rest Googleand Microsoft offer strong risk/reward: Market-implied valuations of Azureand Google cloud appear most attractive. Oracle also screens favourably on Click to view Issuer of report: HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. Disclosures & Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com offerthebestassetturnover,non-GAAPoperatingmarginsandROiCwhileCoreWeaveandOracle Cloud Infrastructure the worst.We believe this reflects: andOracleCloudInfrastructureis100%andcloseto100%,respectively.AmazonAWSMicrosoft Azure and Google Cloud have significant general purpose cloud offering, which isless asset intensive and offers superior asset turnover and returns. As explained below, Amazon AwS is the most exposed to short-term contracts. RentingGPUs on a short-termbasis results in higher prices, but also higher risks of a precipitousdecline in rents if rental prices for the existing GPUs fall. This could be due to either loweroverall computedemand orbecausenew GPUswithsignificantly superior price toperformancebecomeavailable. As explained later in this report, Google's asset turnover has seen significant improvementover the last few quarters. We believe, it reflects rising use of Google's in-house TPUs,which could result in superior price to performance for Google. In addition, Google includesthe revenue generated from its Al offerings, such as from Gemini LLM's in its cloudrevenue, which could be helping asset turnover and margins. Cloud Infrastructureprovidersat a glance AmazonAwSmo