ICS航运晴雨表报告2025-2026

Foreword Clarity amongst chaos ICS Chairman, John Denholm Global shipping is entering a period where uncertaintyis the backdrop against which all decisions are made.Geopolitical instability, economic fragmentation, shiftingtrade dynamics, and the erosion of a global regulatoryframework are not short-term shocks. They arepersistent forces, reshaping how our industry operates,invests, and plans. uncertainty is no longer treated as temporarydisruption, but as a structural condition that must beactively managed. That shift is already shaping decision-making. Responsesto the Barometer show a clear preference for establishedfuel pathways over less certain alternatives. When theexternal environment is unpredictable, proven solutionsoffer confidence and long-term certainty from which thetransition can continue to progress. In this environment, the need for coordination and clarityhas become critical. The International Chamber ofShipping (ICS) exists to provide both: to represent theindustry at the highest levels, ensuring that the voiceof the shipping community is heard when it mattersmost and to help it navigate an increasingly complexgeopolitical, trading, and regulatory landscape. Maintaining that progress will depend on the rightconditions being in place. Investment at the scalerequired for the energy transition will not happen withoutregulatory clarity and global alignment. This is whyICS will continue to play a central role in working withgovernments and regulators, advocating for frameworksthat provide both ambition and certainty, and enable theindustry to move forward with confidence. I would like to thank all participants who contributed toa record level of responses in this year’s ICS MaritimeBarometer survey. This signals a sector that is notretreating in the face of uncertainty, but tackling itdirectly, seeking to understand risk, share insight,and respond collectively. That collective effort will beessential in the period ahead, and itis one that ICS will continue to leadand support. At the same time, shipping is undergoing a rapid digitaltransformation. But this transformation brings newvulnerabilities. As systems become more connectedwith the advancement of AI and other new technologies,resilience must evolve accordingly, requiring not onlytechnological solutions, but shared standards andcollective preparedness. The findings are unequivocal.Geopolitical instability hasbecome a defining riskmultiplier, influencingeverything from marketconditions to operationalplanning. What emergesfrom the Barometer isa clear shift inmindset: The 2025-2026 Maritime Barometer provides aclear view of how industry leaders are interpretingthis moment. More importantly, it reinforces the needfor continued engagement and cooperation. ICS willcontinue to stand alongside our members and the widermaritime community, not only as a representative body,but as a trusted partner in navigating uncertainty andshaping the path ahead. Collective effort will be essentialin the period ahead, and it is onethat ICS will continue to leadand support Executive Summary The 2025–2026 ICS Maritime Barometer featuresinsights from a record number of industry leaders,offering a comprehensive overview of how thisresilient sector is evolving to maintain world trade in anincreasingly complex and uncertain environment*. Aclear theme runs throughout the findings: geopoliticalinstability continues to act as an underlying forceshaping both the risks faced by the industry and theconditions under which it is transitioning. Other fuel pathways remain under active consideration,but face ongoing challenges related to cost, scalability,and infrastructure. As a result, the transition is expectedto follow a more measured trajectory, shaped by bothambition and practical constraints unless there issufficient global support in the near future. A dedicated section examined industry responses to thedelayed discussions of the IMO’s Net-Zero Framework(NZF), which remains under negotiation following theMarine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) 84.While the majority of respondents indicated that theywere making no changes to their plans (a cohort whichalso encompasses organisations whose plans were towait for the regulation to pass before picking a direction),it is worth noting that some have indicated that they haveamended or abandoned their decarbonisation strategiesin response to the delayed regulation. Rather than a standalone concern, political instabilityis increasingly seen as a risk multiplier, influencing abroad range of challenges across a time of extrememarket turbulence and volatility. Its impacts arereflected not only in elevated concerns aroundcybersecurity (the second highest risk) and thegrowing prominence of unilateral and regionalregulation and the related administrative burden (thirdhighest risk), but also in rising barriers to trade andshifting patterns of global commerce. Rather than a standaloneconcern, political instabilityis