花旗全球资产配置：2026年7月观点——从点球到宏观风险

HouseViews July2026-FromPenaltyKickstoMacroRisks Sinceourlastassetallocation,theMiddleEastconflicthasescalatedagain +1-212-7231016dirk.willer@citi.comAdam Pickett AC withoilrecoveringmuchoftheJunelosses.Rateshavetakentheircuesfromoil,whileequitiesandFXhaveremainedmorestablesofar.Weremainoverweighteguities,aswestillexpectaneventualconflictresolution.Butthesizeisreduced,aswetookprofitonourEmergingAsialonginearlyJuly.We remain long the Us, being less sensitive to oil, but note that our"Generals”indicator is not far from triggering,which would be equitynegative.In duration,we stay neutral,underweight the US,nowagainstBunds(replacingGilts),giventhatUSdurationisimpactedbothbyoilandthe Al boom.Bunds are a better overweight given higher oil sensitivity ofGilts,andlessfiscal risks.Weremainunderweightcreditasanequityhedge,andlongbase-metals.OurEURekamodel isflatUSD +44-20-7500-5777adam.pickett@citi.comAlex Saunders AC +1-212-723-1058alexander.saunders@citi.comGiammarco MianiAC +44-20-7986-6316giammarco.miani@citi.com Inequities,westayoverweight-WefavortheUSasalessoil sensitivemarket.Wecut our EM Asia overweightin early Julygiven poortechnicals and retail positioning.While we donotthink that the Al story isover yet,wewouldnote that our riskmanagementtool, which we employduring bubbles,the"Generals",is notfar fromtriggering, which would be a negative sign. Alice ZhengAC+1-212-816-0382alice.zheng@citi.com Michael Alexeev+1-212-8161167michael.alexeev@citi.com Insectors,longcyclicals-Weremainlongtechand industrials,ascyclicalitywilllikelycomebackoncetheoilspikecrests.Techmayalsoonceagainprovetobelessoil sensitive,similartoMarchthisyear,asbroadeningrequiresloweroil prices,mostlikelyandindustrial earningsarepositivesofar. Vinh Vo AC+44-20-75-086-717vinh.vo@citi.com Inrates,westayneutralduration-TheUSremainsanunderweight,giventhat itisimpactedbothbyoil andbythe impactoftheAl boom.Weswitchouroverweightfrom Gilts to Bunds,given higher oil sensitivity of Gilts, and as our Europeanstrategists are worried about fiscal risk into the budget in H2. We cut our Japanunderweight earlier, on concerns of GPiF or Nisa related inflows. Arkady Gevorkyan AC+1-212-723-1051arkady.gevorkyan@citi.com Incredit,westayunderweight-Creditremainsahedgeforourequityoverweight. Citi Global AssetAllocation+44-20-3569-4243assetallocation@citi.com Incommodities,weremainoverweightbasemetals-Weareneutralonenergy,as there are two sided risks,in case the US administration finds a wayto restartthenegotiationprocess.Itisalsoprematuretobuythedipingoldinourview.Weremainlongbasemetalsgivenstill stronggrowthmomentum. With thanks toIrem Sen InFXweareneutral-WehadcutourUSDlongpostCPl.WhiletheCPlimpacthasbeen superseded by strong oil prices,uncertainty in Middle East can still go bothways.WefollowourEURekamodel isalsocurrentlyneutral inFX. In illiquid,westaylong Uranium. House Views July2026 emerging Asia, but we stayed with our US overweight.The main argument is thatliquidity is still relatively supportive,earnings revisions keep coming in positively,overdone,and the Middle East situation could still be resolved, leaving two sidedrisks.Having said that,our Generals warningindicator(multiple marketleadersfalling below 200dma)is notfarfrom triggering,which is ourfavorite riskhawkish than expected Fed could triggerthis redflag overthe next weeks.In time,witha US and JapanunderweightagainstaUKoverweight.Althoughourcalculationssuggest theywon'tbe structurallymeaningful (note),wecutourJGBunderweightearlierthismonth on theback of sentiment shifts aroundpotentialinfowsfromGPIForNISA,but suggestedtheBoJ remainedunderpriced.Whilethoseinflows,ifthey happen,may not changethetrend,JGBs areoversold enoughto react well to it initially.Today,we switch Gilts for Bunds,as Gilts are more oilsensitiveconsideringthe lran risk,and as our Europeanrates strategistis worriedabout the fiscal stance into the budgetlaterthisyear.While Bunds are of courselimited additional downside.Weremainunderweightthe US,even though wedonotexpectahike inJulyandprobablynoteven inSeptember,astheriskisthattheAlboomwill eventuallybroaden withoutthelabormarketweakening WereiterateourIGcreditunderweight.Weremainunderweight inbothUS andEU IG credit,as a hedge for our equityoverweight.Plentiful issuance has ledtoapullbackin spreads,andin caseofanescalatingMiddle East conflict,we wouldexpectcredittopartiallyprotecttheportfolio. Neutral inFX.Wehavebeen long USDbut cutitafterthelow CPl.WhiletheCPIprint is ancient history at this juncture given the higheroil prices,we notethat theEURdownsidefromhigheroil hasbeensomewhat limited,probablygiventhemoreoilyreactionfunctionofthe ECB.OurEUReka model isalsoneutral. Longbasemetalsincommodities.Weremainneutral on energy,giventwo sidednegotiations.It isprematuretobuythe dipin gold,given Iran conflict risk in ourview.Weremainlongbasemetals.Aluminumistypicallynotnegativelyimpactedbythe Straitof Hormuz closure,thoughcopperwould onlybenefitif theconflictisrelativ