大宗商品有色周报：锡价上行，低库存维持淡季价格高位

锡：锡价上行，低库存维持淡季价格高位 作者 锡价持续上涨，矿端同步抬升 价格周内小幅上移，截至本周五，SMM: 1#锡价收于42.6万元/吨，环比+3.5%；矿端，40%锡精矿40.8万元/吨，环比+3.6%；60%锡精矿41.2万元/吨，环比+3.6%。 分析师廖浩祥SAC：S1070526040006邮箱：liaohaoxiang@cgws.com 产业层面，高锡价与消费淡季叠加，下游采购意愿低迷，但低库存格局仍对贸易商高升水报价形成支撑。 供给端：精炼锡周内产量平稳，云南开工率回升 精炼锡周内产量平稳，本周国内锡锭总产量3490吨，环比+0%，同比+10.1%。云南和江西锡锭冶炼厂开工率本周分别达到81.97%、32.79%，环比+1.24pct、0pct。 分析师熊可为SAC：S1070525110001邮箱：xiongkewei@cgws.com 社库与交易所库存双去化 本周，SMM国内锡锭社会库存为6570吨，环比-179吨，库存分位处于2020年来的32%分位水平。SHFE+LME交易所锡库存11296吨，环比-1245吨，其中SHFE-170吨，LME-1075吨。 展望 短期：宏观层面，美联储加息预期升温，高锡价与于需求淡季叠加，预计短期高位宽幅震荡。 长期：全球锡供需仍存缺口，且供应链脆弱性不断冲击市场预期，持续看好锡价中枢上移。 风险提示：下游需求不及预期、海外矿山供给释放超预期、宏观美联储降息不及预期风险、报告中的数据可能有滞后风险 内容目录 宏观&行业动态..........................................................................................................................................31.价格：锡价持续上行，矿端同步回升.........................................................................................................32.库存：社库与交易所库存双去化................................................................................................................43.供给：精炼锡周内产量平稳，云南开工率回升............................................................................................54.矿端紧平衡，6月表需回升.......................................................................................................................6附：终端景气度及年度供需平衡表...............................................................................................................7消费电子.............................................................................................................................................7半导体................................................................................................................................................7供需平衡表.........................................................................................................................................8风险提示...................................................................................................................................................8 图表目录 图表1：美联储降息概率（CME）...............................................................................................................3图表2：美元指数走势...............................................................................................................................3图表3：锡价走势.....................................................................................................................................3图表4：沪锡市场现货日度升贴水（元/吨）................................................................................................3图表5：国内锡精矿价格（元/吨）.............................................................................................................4图表6：锡精矿加工费（元/吨）................................................................................................................4图表7：精炼锡成本（外购锡精矿）...........................................................................................................4图表8：锡锭社会库存（吨）.....................................................................................................................4图表9：SHFE+LME交易所锡库存（吨）....................................................................................................4图表10：国内锡精矿产量（吨）................................................................................................................5图表11：锡矿进口（实物吨）...................................................................................................................5图表12：锡矿进口-缅甸（实物吨）...........................................................................................................5图表13：锡矿进口-刚果金（实物吨）........................................................................................................5图表14：印尼交易所成交量（吨）.............................................................................................................5图表15：精炼锡产量（吨）......................................................................................................................6图表16：精炼锡开工率（%）...................................................................................................................6图表17：周度锡锭产量（吨）...................................................................................................................6图表18：锡表观消费（吨）......................................................................................................................7图表19：国内矿端供需缺口情况（金属吨）................................................................................................7图表20：全球智能手机出货，分季度.........................................................................................................7图表21：全球PC出货，分季度.................................................................................................................7图表22：半导体销售额Vs.锡价.................................................................................................................8图表23：半导体指数................................................................................................................................8图表24：全球精炼锡供需平衡表...