大宗商品有色周报：锡价因半导体指数回调跟跌

锡：半导体指数回调较多，锡价跟跌 作者 半导体指数回调，锡价周内回调 本周半导体指数回调较多，其中，长江半导体指数下跌22%，费城半导体指数下跌10%。锡价随之回调，但仍维持在40万元/吨以上。 分析师廖浩祥SAC：S1070526040006邮箱：liaohaoxiang@cgws.com 价格周内震荡偏弱：本周SMM: 1#锡价收于40.7万元/吨，环比-2.2%；40%锡精矿38.9万元/吨，环比-2.4%；60%锡精矿39.3万元/吨，环比-2.4%。 供给端：开工率小幅回升，精炼锡周内产量略增 精炼锡周内产量回升，本周国内锡锭总产量3420吨，环比+1.6%，同比+7.9%，由上周的下滑转为上升。云南和江西锡锭冶炼厂开工率本周分别达到85.67%、32.79%，环比+1.34pct、-0pct。 分析师熊可为SAC：S1070525110001邮箱：xiongkewei@cgws.com 持续去库，库存处于2020年以来的较低水平 本周，SMM国内锡锭社会库存为6647吨，环比-214吨，库存分位处于2020年来的33%分位水平。SHFE+LME交易所锡库存13198吨，环比-673吨，其中SHFE-268吨，LME-405吨。去库趋势延续，但节奏有所放缓。 展望 短期：宏观情绪转弱，虽处于需求淡季，供给端扰动持续存在，预计7月锡价震荡偏强。 长期：全球锡供需仍存缺口，且供应链脆弱性不断冲击市场预期，持续看好锡价中枢上移。 风险提示：下游需求不及预期、海外矿山供给释放超预期、宏观美联储降息不及预期风险、报告中的数据可能有滞后风险 内容目录 宏观&行业动态..........................................................................................................................................31.价格：锡价回调，矿端同步走弱................................................................................................................32.库存：持续去库但速度放缓......................................................................................................................43.供给：精炼锡周内产量回升......................................................................................................................54.矿端紧平衡，5月表需下滑.......................................................................................................................7附：终端景气度及年度供需平衡表...............................................................................................................7消费电子.............................................................................................................................................7半导体................................................................................................................................................7供需平衡表.........................................................................................................................................8风险提示...................................................................................................................................................8 图表目录 图表1：美联储降息概率（CME）...............................................................................................................3图表2：美联储降息点阵图........................................................................................................................3图表3：锡价走势.....................................................................................................................................4图表4：沪锡市场现货日度升贴水（元/吨）................................................................................................4图表5：国内锡精矿价格（元/吨）.............................................................................................................4图表6：锡精矿加工费（元/吨）................................................................................................................4图表7：精炼锡成本（外购锡精矿）...........................................................................................................4图表8：锡锭社会库存（吨）.....................................................................................................................5图表9：SHFE+LME交易所锡库存（吨）....................................................................................................5图表10：国内锡精矿产量（吨）................................................................................................................5图表11：锡矿进口（实物吨）...................................................................................................................5图表12：锡矿进口-缅甸（实物吨）...........................................................................................................5图表13：锡矿进口-刚果金（实物吨）........................................................................................................5图表14：印尼交易所成交量（吨）.............................................................................................................6图表15：精炼锡产量（吨）......................................................................................................................6图表16：精炼锡开工率（%）...................................................................................................................6图表17：周度锡锭产量（吨）...................................................................................................................6图表18：锡表观消费（吨）......................................................................................................................7图表19：国内矿端供需缺口情况（金属吨）................................................................................................7图表20：全球智能手机出货，分季度.........................................................................................................7图表21：全球PC出货，分季度.................................................................................................................7图表22：半导体销售额Vs.锡价.................................................................................................................8图表23：半导体指数...................................................................................