大宗商品|有色*周报：锡价淡季坚挺，社会库存转为累库

锡：锡价淡季坚挺，社会库存转为累库 作者 消费淡季，锡价坚挺 价格周内小幅上移，截至本周五，SMM: 1#锡价收于43.4万元/吨，环比+2.0%；矿端，40%锡精矿41.6万元/吨，环比+2.1%；60%锡精矿42.0万元/吨，环比+2.1%。（周内长江半导体/费城半导体指数环比分别+11%、+9%） 分析师廖浩祥SAC：S1070526040006邮箱：liaohaoxiang@cgws.com 宏观层面，9月16日美联储会议预期维持不变概率56%，加息概率44%，加息概率预期较上周下降。 产业层面，消费仍处于消费淡季，供需双弱，下游采购仍偏谨慎，低库存格局对锡价底部支撑逻辑维持。 分析师熊可为SAC：S1070525110001邮箱：xiongkewei@cgws.com 供给端：7月精炼锡产量下降，云南开工率周内回升 7月精炼锡产量15290吨，环比-0.9%，同比-4.1%。云南和江西锡锭冶炼厂开工率本周分别达到82.91%、33.27%，环比+0.94pct、+0.48pct。 社库转累，交易所库存延续去化 本周，SMM国内锡锭社会库存为7556吨，环比+986吨，库存分位处于2020年来的43%分位水平。SHFE+LME交易所锡库存11136吨，环比-657吨，其中SHFE-147吨，LME-510吨。 展望 短期：宏观层面，美国“小非农”放缓，美联储加息预期回落，高锡价与需求淡季叠加，预计维持短期高位震荡。 长期：全球锡供需仍存缺口，且供应链脆弱性不断冲击市场预期，持续看好锡价中枢上移。 风险提示：下游需求不及预期、海外矿山供给释放超预期、宏观美联储降息不及预期风险、报告中的数据可能有滞后风险 内容目录 宏观&行业动态..........................................................................................................................................31.价格：锡价持续上行，矿端同步跟涨.........................................................................................................32.库存：社库转累，交易所库存延续去化......................................................................................................43.供给：7月精炼锡产量下降，云南开工率继续回升.......................................................................................54.矿端紧平衡，6月表需回升.......................................................................................................................6附：终端景气度及年度供需平衡表...............................................................................................................7消费电子.............................................................................................................................................7半导体................................................................................................................................................7供需平衡表.........................................................................................................................................8风险提示...................................................................................................................................................8 图表目录 图表1：美联储降息概率（CME）...............................................................................................................3图表2：美元指数走势...............................................................................................................................3图表3：锡价走势.....................................................................................................................................3图表4：沪锡市场现货日度升贴水（元/吨）................................................................................................3图表5：国内锡精矿价格（元/吨）.............................................................................................................4图表6：锡精矿加工费（元/吨）................................................................................................................4图表7：精炼锡成本（外购锡精矿）...........................................................................................................4图表8：锡锭社会库存（吨）.....................................................................................................................4图表9：SHFE+LME交易所锡库存（吨）....................................................................................................4图表10：国内锡精矿产量（吨）................................................................................................................5图表11：锡矿进口（实物吨）...................................................................................................................5图表12：锡矿进口-缅甸（实物吨）...........................................................................................................5图表13：锡矿进口-刚果金（实物吨）........................................................................................................5图表14：印尼交易所成交量（吨）.............................................................................................................5图表15：精炼锡产量（吨）......................................................................................................................6图表16：精炼锡开工率（%）...................................................................................................................6图表17：周度锡锭产量（吨）...................................................................................................................6图表18：锡表观消费（吨）......................................................................................................................7图表19：国内矿端供需缺口情况（金属吨）................................................................................................7图表20：全球智能手机出货，分季度.........................................................................................................7图表21：全球PC出货，分季度.................................................................................................................7图表22：半导体销售额Vs.锡价.................................................................................................................8图表23：半导体指数..............................................................................