美国消费者追踪（2Q26）：通胀持续下韧性寻找性价比的消费者

US Consumer Tracker (2Q26): Resilient but value seekingconsumer amid continued inflation The US consumer remains resilient, but value seeking.Despite some moderation, gasprices remain elevated. This has kept CPI elevated at 3.5%+ and led to a further declinein consumer sentiment, with lower income consumers being the hardest hit. However, asunemployment rate is low, consumer spending has been resilient. We expect the inflationarypressure to persist and expect consumers to remain value focused. Zhihan Ma, CFA+1 917 344 8303zhihan.ma@bernsteinsg.com Alexia Howard+1 917 344 8453alexia.howard@bernsteinsg.com InUS Broadlines & Hardlines Retail, we seeWMT, COST, and dollar storesasbeneficiaries as consumers seek value. Among these, DG and WMT are more exposed tolow income consumers, who we expect to remain under pressure. We remain neutral onhome improvementas potential rate hikes and elevated inflation weigh on sentiment. Aneesha Sherman+1 917 344 8457aneesha.sherman@bernsteinsg.com Cristian Rios+1 917 344 8615cristian.rios@bernsteinsg.com WithinSpecialty Retail and Discretionary Brands,we favor names leaning towards theupper end of the "K" — this year we likeTPRandTJX, both seeing share gains and positiverevisions but stocks have pulled back.Sportswearremains more mixed near-term as softerQ2 demand trends and limited investor appetite for turnarounds continue to weigh onsentiment, though we see attractive longer-term opportunities in several names (e.g.,ADS,ONONwhere Sept Investor Days should be catalysts). Danilo Gargiulo+1 917 344 8475danilo.gargiulo@bernsteinsg.com Nadine Sarwat, CFA+44 20 7676 6849nadine.sarwat@bernsteinsg.com ForRestaurants, the backdrop remains challenging with low income pressure, elevatedbeef costs, and the Cyclospora outbreak. We favorDRIas consumers weigh restaurantsteak occasions against soaring grocery beef prices. We stay constructive onSBUX,CMG, andCAVAgiven affluent-consumer exposure and company-specific drivers. In FoodDistribution, soft traffic is a modest case-volume headwind, but elevated freight/foodinflation reinforces scale advantages atUSFD, PFGC,andSYY. Jeremy Miles, CFA+1 917 344 8370jeremy.miles@bernsteinsg.com Cinnie Lin+1 917 344 8567cinnie.lin@bernsteinsg.com ForUS Alcohol, macro poses a headwind, with consumers prioritizing affordability. US beerwas meaningfully impacted by higher gas prices in Q2, though we remain constructive onSTZ(accelerated share gains) andBUD. We have limited conviction inTAP(weak categorygrowth exposure) andSAM(topline uncertainty). Within spirits, we sit on the sidelines forBF (gross margin compression), but likeDEOover the medium-term (all eyes on August 6thCMD, with special focus on affordability initiatives) Jessica Tian+1 917 344 8413jessica.tian@bernsteinsg.com Jed Hodulik+1 917 344 8594jed.hodulik@bernsteinsg.com InU.S. Food, Q2 saw a meaningful convergence in FAFH vs. FAH inflation. Thisconvergence could weigh on grocery store traffic at the margin. SNAP spending cutbacksare also beginning to have an impact. It may be hard for these companies to absorb yetanother round of inflation while consumer price sensitivity remains acute. We favorMDLZandSJM, based on favorable overseas and category exposures. Yolanda Zhang+1 917 344 8346yolanda.zhang@bernsteinsg.com In USBeverages and HPC, we continue to seeBeveragescompanies asbest-positionedfor capturing growth. While YoY category growth slowed sequentially from ~6% in Q1 to~4%, growth remained ahead of most other categories. We favorCELHandKDPbasedon the strength of their portfolios in Functional Beverages, which are outpacing the overallcategory.HPCslowed down from a more modest base of ~3.5% in Q1 to ~2.5% in Q2,showing more staple-like behavior. Matthew Cheung+44 20 7676 6809matthew.cheung@bernsteinsg.com BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS In US Retailing Broadlines & Hardlines, we rate WMT, COST, DG, DOL, FIVE, and LOW Outperform, we rate HD, DLTR, and TGTMarket-Perform. In US Food, we rate MKC, MDLZ, and SJM Outperform, we rate BRBR, HSY, LW, SMPL, and TSN Market-Perform, and we rateCAG, CPB, GIS, and KHC Underperform. In US Apparel & Specialty Retail, we rate NKE, ADS, ONON, TJX, BURL, and TPR Outperform, and we rate DECK, LULU, CPRI,ROST, PTON, and SFIX Market-Perform. In US Restaurants, we rate CAVA, CMG, DRI, PFGC, QSR, SBUX, USFD, and WING Outperform. We rate DPZ, MCD, SYY, WEN,and YUM Market-Perform. In US Alcohol, we rate CUERVO and STZ Outperform, and we rate TAP, SAM, BF and ABEV Market-Perform. In Beverages and HPC we rate CELH and KDP Outperform, and we rate KO, PEP, MNST, PG, CL, EL and ELF Market-Perform. DETAILS SUMMARY HEATMAP TOP 5 CHARTS TAX REFUND AND ENERGY INFLATION EXACERBATING A K-SHAPED ECONOMY EXHIBIT 2:Inflation ticked up to over 4% in May beforemoderating somewhat... EXHIBIT 3:…along with gas prices.As of July 20, 2026 EXHIBIT 4:As tax-refund effects fade, consumer sentiment from all income declined, with the botto