利用私人就业估算评估近期劳动力市场状况

AssessingRecentLaborMarketConditionsUsingPrivateEmploymentEstimates January7, 2026 GanghuiJeongJunior Economist,Labor Market YounghoLeeEconomist,Labor MarketForecasting&AnalysisTeam,Research Department,Bank of KoreaTel. 02-759-4205 ByunghoSongHead,Labor Market Forecasting&AnalysisTeam,Research Department,Bank of KoreaTel. 02-759-4297bh.song@bok.or.kr Forecasting&AnalysisTeam, ResearchDepartment, Bank of KoreaTel. 02-759-4291 leeyh@bok.or.kr ghjeong@bok.or.kr ①Publicemployment—including senior employmentprogramsandpublic‑administration employees—have increased steadily over the past several years.Publicemployment expanded roughly3.7‑fold, froman average of 270,000 in 2015 to 990,000 inQ1-Q32025average. Thisincreasereflectsrapidly growingdemand for social services includingeldercare services, amidpopulation aging andolder persons’ greaterwillingness to participate in economic activity.Publicemployment is assessed to have helped stabilizeemploymentand income amongvulnerable groupswhilepromotingsocial participation amongolderpersons. ②However,as public employment accounts for a larger share oftotal employment, it becomesmoredifficultto assess underlying labor market conditions—and,by extension,overall economicconditions—on the basis ofaggregate employment alone.This is because total employmentdoes notfully capturecyclical fluctuationsin employment arising frommacroeconomic conditions, particularlythebusinesscycle.In the United States,private employment isalsousedalongside total employment to assesslabor marketconditions.Against this backdrop,this paper estimatesprivate employment, defined astotalemploymentexcluding publicemployment,andusesittoassessrecentlabormarketconditionsinKorea. ③Theresultssuggestthat private employmentcapturescyclicalmacroeconomicfluctuationsmoreaccuratelythan total employment andismoreconsistentwith changes inbroaderlabormarketconditions.Private employmentis more strongly correlated with domestic demand and core inflation,anditsuse improvesforecasts ofgrowth and inflation relative toforecasts based ontotal employment.Italso sends signals that are moreconsistentwithother labormarket indicators. ④The estimatesindicatethat privateemploymenthasremainedsubduedsince 2024, although theweakness eased in Q3of 2025as consumption recovered.Since 2024, private employmentfell belowtrendamid thecontraction inconstructionactivity andremainedweakthroughH1of 2025,beforemovingclosertotrendinQ3on the back of recoveringconsumptions.Bycontrast,public employmentincreased by140,000in Q1-Q3of 2025average,supportingsolidgrowthin total employment.Scenario analysis suggeststhat thisincreaseloweredthe unemployment rate byabout0.1-0.2 percentage points. ▪Disclaimer: The views expressed herein are those of the authors, and do notnecessarily reflect the official views of the Bank of Korea. When reporting orciting this paper, the authors' names shouldalways beexplicitly stated. ▪We would like to express our sincere appreciation toYongsungChang, member of theMonetary Policy Board,Jiho Lee, Director General of the Research Department, andYoungju Kim, Director oftheInflation & Labor Market Division,for their valuablecomments on an earlier draft. ⑤Private employment is projected to improve in 2026 relative to 2025.Althoughstructuralheadwinds—including adecline in the working‑age population and technological change—are expected to persist,theincreasein private employmentisprojectedtoedge up from 50,000 in 2025to 60,000in 2026 asdomesticdemandstrengthens. In particular,the privateemploymentgap—the deviation of actual employmentfromtrend—is expected to narrow markedly,from-80,000 in 2025to-20,000 in 2026. Ⅰ. Introduction Public employment hasexpanded steadily overthe past several years.Asincomes have risenandpopulation aginghasaccelerated,demand forarangeofsocial services, including careservices,hasincreased,whilesocial participation amongolder persons has also grown. The government’starget for directjob-creationprogramsrose by about 80 percent, from 686,000 positions in 2015 to1,239,000 positions in 2025.Jobs for older persons have expanded particularlyrapidly, reflectingthe growing need to supplement the incomes and stabilizethe employment of vulnerable groups inview of Korea’s high old-age poverty rate. These programs are assessed to have had meaningfulpositive effects in reducing employment volatility andstabilizinghousehold income. However,aspublic employmentaccounts for a larger share oftotalemployment, aggregateemployment alone has become less informative about the cyclical state of the labor market.Forexample,although total employment has recently remained near its trend and posted solid gains inquantitative terms, employment in major industries such as construction and manufacturing has beenweak, while low-wage and part-time jobs have increased. Labor market indicators have therefore beensending mixed signals. Alternative indicatorsarethereforeneededtoimproveconsistencyacross labor marketindicators