Datadog(AWS)Q2财报解读：核心客户增速信号仍强劲

+1917344 8390peter.weed@bernsteinsg.com +1917 344 8342luwei.yang@bernsteinsg.com Market-PerformPrice Target Datadog (DDOG): AWS Q2 results readthrough to earnings With Datadog's earnings justa week away,we want to offer a quick updated readthroughfrom AwS'Q2 earnings Thursday after market.Ifyou havebeen following ourquarterly AWSwebmetric work (latest note here),youmay rememberthat we'vefound AwS'ex-Al revenueto be a strong signal for the core customers that make up~85% of Datadog's revenue (theremaining ~15% are Born-in-Al customers, with more than half of that we believe beingdriven by the two largest Al Labs). We won't bury the lede any deeper: AWS reported 36.7%YoY growth, up from 28.4% last quarter. But this includes Al revenue that grew to “more than$25BARR" inQ2upfrom“more than$15BARR" inQ1.With theAl revenue excluded, wethinkAWS ex-Al grewQoQ in the~6% range. AwS signal:veryclosetoourpublishedDatadogmodel.Yes,there isapotentialfew$MM of error in this read through model (we think more likely to the upside),the least ofwhich is AwS isn't super specific in their Al revenue communications, plus the web metricearnings wouldbe enoughforus to change the directional message in our current model:thisquarter we estimate at ~26.0%, and think this quarter would be low-to-mid 27.x% range). AwS web metrics update: July starting behind, but good trajectory (in line with ourmodelexpectation).Aquick update on AwS webmetrics that we use on a+1 quarterbasisto preview howwe think core growth could evolve. As we've covered before, Q2 growth flatlined for the latter part of the quarter (Exhibit 1), but this still puts it ahead of 2025 (whichwas impacted by DOGE/tariffs until late in the quarter) so there will likely be a small furtherQ3 revenuegrowthtailwind.BUT!Q4 we warnedwas likelytoseeYoY growth headwindsbecause the -1 year comp is very tough, and the starting point in the quarter is weak (Exhibit2).Our model assumes slightly above"normal" QoQ growth, and that looks like the currenttrajectory. The result would be Q4 seeing nearly 20Obps YoY growth headwind, if so. Note:for the"Born-in-Al"component of our model, see our note here. InvestmentImplications prior year levels in April but began to level off in May,with the relative softnesspersisting through June.Afterthe July 4th holiday,the consumption trend startedto pick up again, following a similar trajectory to prioryears. Because 2025 was even weaker, this signalsacceleration will continue modestly into Q3.[reminder:current quarterweb metrics are similarto ARR added,thus signal+1quarterrevenue recognition,withQ2webmetrics signaling Q3revenue,inthis case] theprioryears duetothe softnesswe saw in Q2,thetrend has large tracked thepattern observed in 2025.Our modelassumes it to mirror2025's trajectory forthe remainder of the quarter, allowing it to catch upfrom a weak starting point and result ina“normal"sequential growth quarter close ora bit above 2023 (butstill below 2025, implying some YoY growth headwindsin Q4 revenue recognition).[reminder: currentquarterweb metrics are similar to ARR added, thus signal +1quarter revenue recognition] Similarweb data for 4th week in July includes a Bernstein estimate for Saturdaycontributor,so we anticipate our estimate to be roughly accurate.Source: Similarweb,Bernstein estimates and analysis References to "Bernstein" or the“Firm"in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC Africa Technologies &Services to produce Bernstein researchundera Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Societe Generale. otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein'saffiliates"relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. Ourpricetargetof$226 isanaverageofDCF(with11%WACCand3%terminalgrowth)andP/Sales(Next5-8Q)compmultiple.P/Sales (Next 5-8Q)compmultiple of 16xis based onapeer-SaaS regression intheirrelevant>10% OpM CloudSaaS cohortfrom our“Rule-of-4O"based valuation framework analysis.We assume current Cloud SaaS multiples regression line remainsconsistent for 1+ year. RISKS Datadog Inc Downside risks beyond the macroeconomic risks include: increased competition from well-funded competitors in the industry;margin expansion slowerthan expected duetoworse scale leverage in operating costs items; execution missteps ormissedearnings expectations could lead to significant downsidegiven the current valuation.Upside risks include:betterproducttractionthan expected, betterthan anticipated pace of new cloud workloads going into production, more major Al-customer wins, moreupside in“Born-in-Al" customer growth. RATINGSDEFINITIONS,BENCHMARKSANDDISTRIBUTION EQUITYRATINGSDEFINITIONS Bernsteinbrand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S.and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index EUR (