美国通信设备：磷化铟供应限制或持续，对LITE为正面

InP Supply Constraint Will Likely Persist: +ve CW on LITE Inthisreport,wedebutourInP(EMLandCW)supplymodel.Whenpaired +1-212-816-9476papa.sylla@citi.com withtheCiti Chinanetworkingteam'soptical demand model,ouranalysisshows that despitetherapid capacityincreaseacross US and Chinese InPwaferandlaserplayers,supplywill remainbelowdemandoverthenextthree years.This,coupledwith our increased confidence in CPO being ontrackfollowingourrecentNvDAand LiTEconversationswithmanagement(seepage11),keepsusconstructiveonbothCOHRandLITEasweseeintherecent pullback in spaceas an attractivebuying opportunity.Additionally,weareopening anupsideCatalyst WatchonLiTEahead of itsJun-QearningsreportandECOCinSep-26asweexpectthecompanytoaddressitsfavorablepricingdynamics,intactCPOroadmapaswellas itstechnologyleadershipthroughoutthetwoevents +1-415-951-1892atif.malik@citi.com InPLaserSupplyModel (page12)Wemodelthetotal industrylaserchipsupplybelieveAXTIand Sumitomo Electric (representing~47%of thetotalAl relatedInPwafers)increasingatacombined~3.5xwaferrampby2028(from2025base)isthesingle biggest swing factor.Coherent is an important contributor as they leverage atransitioningto6-inchwafers. SupplyDemandGapFavorsLITE-Ouranalysisestimatesthata30%/20%/11%EMLdemand gapvs.supplybetween2026-2028.This offers LITE(the leader in100G/200G EML and UHP lasers)further pricing power.Citi now reflects anadditional15%priceincreaseinFY2027E,reflectingour6%and5%FY2027EandFY2028EEPSestimatesupwardrevisions. CPo DelayTalks-Management does not see a delay. Lumentum is shipping intoNVIDIAtodayand expectslasershipmentstoinflectinQ4calendar2026andgrowfurther in calendar 2027.All three ELS makers it supplies for NVIDIA are pulling forproduct,andNViDIA'sownpubliccomments suggestCPOremainsontrack(furtherdetails onpage11). NPOLaserCompletionRisk-LITEManagementsaidNPO solutionsinsidetheboxcangoaslowas150mwCW,whereLumentumstill sees itselfasdifferentiatedsincefewcompetitorscanbuilda15OmWCWlaser.Onthehighend,it'sworkingwithNPOcustomers on ELS-type,WDM-based form factors carrying a higher ASP than theNVIDIAbusiness,withblendedmarginssimilartothatNVIDIAprofile.EvenifNVIDIAitself shiftedtoward NPOto work around TSMC packaging constraints,itwouldrequire the sameELS and laser chipfrom Lumentum-no negative impact.NPOactivityhasactuallyincreased sinceNVIDIA'sCPOannouncement. ExecutiveSummary important material bottlenecks in the Al infrastructurebuildout.InPisthesemiconductor substrate used to grow the high-speed laser diodes that generateandmodulate thelight inside virtuallyevery 800G and 1.6Toptical transceiverconnecting GPUclustersinsideAldatacenters.Demandforthesetransceivers isscalingfasterthansupplycompanies suchas LITEandCOHRwhoexpectmodulesdemand to surpass supply 30%+ in 1H2026.With1.6T modules ramping through2026-2027 and co-packaged optics (CP0) emerging as the next architectural shiftorextendbeyond 2026whichwebelieveshouldcontinuetodrivedemandvisibilityandpricingdynamics.Webelieve LITE which has 50%+ shares of the EMLand UHPlasers sofar will likelybe thekeybeneficiaryof thefavorablepricing dynamicswhileCOHR (the leader in 6-inch transition) should benefitfrombeingmore internalthanitsChinesecompetition.Chinese competitorswhoalthougharedrasticallyleanonthelikesofLiTEandSumitomoforthemostadvancedEMLandCWlasers(150mWand up). China's February2025decision to add InPto its export-control list (IEA)triggered aseveresupplyshockandpushedleadtimesforsomecustomersoutto2028.Thatshock hasreshapedthecompetitivemapacrosscompanies centraltothis report:tworawsubstrate/wafersupplierswithmixedexposuretoChina(AXTIwhosemanufacturing sitsinsideChinaviaitsTongmei subsidiary)and Japan (xAdvancedMetals); onevertically integrated Japanese supplier spanning substrates throughfinished laserdiodes (Sumitomo Electric);andtwo US,vertically integratedtransceivermakers who on top of being wafer customers to the likes of Sumitomoare racing to control their own InP supply:COHR and LITE both of which have nowreceiveds2BstrategicinvestmentsandpurchasecommitmentsfromNVDAtosecurecapacityamidthelatter'sCPOpushwhosetimelinewebelieveremainsintactfollowingourrecentconversationswithLITEandCOHRmanagementpre-quietperiod. capacityexpansion announced in2025-2026 is racingtomeet1.6Tand cPO-erademand,andCoherentand Lumentumareeachpursuingdeeperverticalintegrationgrowingtheirown InPspecificallyto insulatethemselvesfrom thesubstratebottleneck that constrainedtherestofthe industry. 1.MarketOverview:WhyInPMattersforAIOptics 1.1 Why InP,technically InPisa direct-bandgap lll-Vsemiconductor,whichallowseffectivelightemissionEML (electro-absorptionmodulated laser)andDFB (distributedfeedbacklaser)chipsremainthelasersourceofchoiceforthe1310nm/1550nmwavelengthsusedin long-reach,high-speed datacenterandtelecom links,evenas silicon photonicsgainsgroundfordense,low-costopticalintegration.Siliconphotonicsplatformsstill typicallyneed an externally coupled orhybrid-integrated InPlaserto actuallygenerate light.VCSELs