2026年6月及第二季度呈K型分化 金价回调背景下中国珠宝行业态势

China Consumer- Jewelry A K-shaped June and 2Q26 Amid Gold Price Pull Back 21.3%/8.9%inApr/MayperNBSdata.Givenadeepergoldpricedecline inJuneat-11%momvs.Apr/May's-3%/-3%,thebetterJunereflectedapent-updemandofweight-based goldjewelryproducts(whichcontributedmostindustrysales)whilefixed-pricegold jewelryproductsstillstruggled,inCiti'sview.AmongCiti'sgoldjewelrycoverage,weexpectdownsidetoourLaopu Junpreviewin1H26Eresults,whileChowTaiFookpeckingorderintheChinajewelryspaceisChowTaiFook>Laopu>LukFook. Tiffany FengAC+852-2501-2759tiffany.feng@citi.comXiaopo Wei, CFA +852-2501-2472xiaopo.wei@citi.com Brian Cho+852-2501-2712brian.cho@citi.com ImplicationonLaopu-GivenLaopu'sproductshavefixedprices,thedeepergoldpricedecline in Junfurtherexpanded itsproductpricepremiumovertraditionalweighted-basedgoldjewelryproductsto74%(figure1&2).Therefore,we expectdownsideto our earlier1H26Epreviewwhere we estimated revenue togrow77%yoytoRmb21.9bn(Rmb17.5bn in1QandRmb4.4bnin2Q),andNPtosurge114%toRmb4.85bn(Rmb3.8bnin1QandRmb1.05bnin2Q).Thatsaid,wealsothink2Qsales/earnings arebottomed and the stockis oversold amid recentgold price retreatwithcompellingvaluationat8.7xP/Eand8.6%dividendyield in27E(normalizedearnings).SeeCiti'sJun22note:LaopuGold(6181.HK)-2Q26Eoperationtrendand1H26Eearningspreview. Implicationon ChowTaiFook-The recovery ofweight-based gold jewelry productsbodeswell for ChowTaiFook,inCiti's view.In Apr-May2026,its Mainland ChinaSsSresumedgrowthat20%(+3%/+35%infixedpricejewelry/weight-basedgoldjewelry)vs.flattishin4QFY26;StrongSSSGmomentumcontinuedinHK&Macauat+41%(+20%/+57%infixedpricejewelry/weight-basedgoldjewelry).We expectsuchmomentumtosustaininJun.Wealsoexpectre-ratingroomifmanagementcoulddeliverthetargeted NPMexpansion underbrand transformation(See Citi'sJun12note:ChowTaiFookJewelleryGroup(1929.HK)-Guidancebetterthanexpected:Brandtransformationbearingfruit).ChowTaiFook is alsooneofthe10stocks CitiChina Consumerteamhasidentifiedas over-soldbig-cap consumernames withattractivevaluations.SeeCiti's Jul 2note:China Consumer-10 big-capChinaconsumerstockswithattractivevaluation. ImplicationonLukFook-Therecoveryofweight-basedgold jewelryproducts alsobenefits Luk Fook, in Citi's view.For1QFY27-to-date(Apr1to Jun21), MainlandChinaSSSGacceleratedto>20%(vs.~10%in4QFY26);HK/MacauSSSGwas>40%(vs.39% in4QFY26)on more attractivepricingunder RMBappreciation.See Citi's Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group(1929.HK; HK$11.82;1;15Jul26;16:10) sentiment),whichis in line withourtargetmultipleforLaopu Gold. Downside risks that could prevent the shares from reaching ourtarget price include:1)gold pricevolatility; 2)weak consumptionsentimentduetoslower-than-expectedeconomicrecovery,tradedisputes,andRMBdepreciation;3)increased Laopu Gold(6181.HK; HK$375.0;1;15 Jul26; 16:10) ValuationOurtargetpriceofHK$659isbasedon15x2027EP/E(normalizedearnings)vs.global luxurypeers'22x2026EP/E.Weapply ~3%valuation discountforLaopu'storeflect its shorter brand historyand track record period intheluxuryindustry.Theimplied13x2026EP/Eisatthelowendofgloballuxurypeers. RisksKeydownside risks that could impedethe sharesfromreaching ourtargetprice include:1)goldpricevolatility;2)intense competition;3)evolvingconsumertastesandpreferences;4)consumptiontrade-downamidChina'ssofteconomy;and5)negativefree cashflowamid expansion. LukFookHoldings(lnternational)(0590.HK;HK$22.98;1;15Jul26;16:10) Valuation growth rate.Our WAcC is derived fromacapital structure of100%equity and 0%net debt, cost ofequity of14.1%,andanafter-taxcostofdebtof1.0%. Risks Downsiderisksthatcouldpreventthesharesfromreachingourtargetprice include:(1)worse-than-expectedgoldjewelrydemandvolumecurbed byany sharply highergold prices;(2)worse-than-expected sales on an accelerated decline ofand (4)milder-than-expectedrentalcostreduction inHongKong.Upsiderisksthatcouldcausethesharestotradeaboveourrentalcostreduction. of the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY:711), from outside theUS+1-210-677-3788 Appendix A-1 Theresearchanalystsprimarilyresponsibleforthepreparationand contentofthisresearchreportareeither(i)designated by“Ac"intheauthorblockor(ii)listed inboldalongsidecontentwhichis attributabletothatanalyst.IfmultipleAcanalystsaredesignated intheauthorblock,eachanalystiscertifyingwithrespecttotheentireresearchreportotherthan(a)contentattributabletoanotherACcertifyinganalystlistedinboldalongsidethecontentand (b)viewsexpressedsolelywithrespecttoaspecificissuerwhichareattributabletoanotherACcertifyinganalystidentified inthepricechartsorratinghistorytablesforthatissuershownbelow.Eachoftheseanalystscertify,withrespecttothesectionsofthereportforwhichtheyareresponsible:(1)thattheviewsexpressedthereinaccuratelyreflecttheirpersonalviewsabouteachissuerandsecurityreferencedandwerepreparedinanindependentmanner,includingwithrespecttoCitigroupGlobalMarketsInc.and its affiliates;and(2)nopartoftheresearchanalyst'scompensationwas,is,orwillbe,directlyorindirectly,relatedtothespecificre