拆解TPU即服务

Unpacking TPU-As-A-Service GOOGLisabouttoembarkonamajornewinitiativetoscaleAloutsideofitsdatacenterwallsviaaneweconomicmodel,initially with Anthropic, but potentially with others down theroad. We think this effort could boost '28 cons. gross profit by15% and 0l by more. GOOGLUnchangedU.S. InternetPOSITIVEUnchangedPrice TargetUSD 425.00UnchangedPrice (23-Jul-26)USD317.69Potential Upside/Downside+33.8%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research help of several partners, to increase Al capacity industry-wide.Most investors are aware of TPU-aaSgiventhe commentaryon therecent earnings call,butthemagnitude ofhowbigthis effortcouldbeis likelyunderappreciatedbytheStreet.Semiconductorbuysiders have a decenthandle on this theme, but we think now is thetimeforthe consumerinternet buysideto takenotice.TPU-aaS is where Google takes inventory and sells TPUs directlyto customers as amerchantvendor.One only hastolook atthe$811B (up+$479BQ/Q)in purchase commitmentsburied in the 10-Q this week, the $275B+ increase in backlog in the past 6 months, or AVGO'scommitment of 20+GWs,to startto see howmassive this could be.Weareraising our GoogleCloud revenue and ol estimates significantly with this report, after a full rebuild ofourmodel.We'd also point out that this effort may reverse somefuture capexgrowth (potentiallydownsideto our s500B'28 estimate),as this asset-light approach to Al infrastructure helpsGOOGL's capital efficiency. Market Cap (USDmn)3889212Shares Outstanding (mn)12230.00Free Float (%)98.7752 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn)33.9Dividend Yield (%)0.28Return on Equity TTM (%)49.55Current BVPS (USD)50.90Source: Bloomberg The TPU-aaS effort has implications for many companies across the Al ecosystem including: ·Anthropic:gains additional controlof its businessmodel, verticallyintegrates,and is lessexposed torestrictions around hyperscalerservice agreements. :Broadcom:opens a substantial newrevenuepoolanddiversifies itsbusinessto otherpartners (consistent withoursemiconductorresearchteam's companion report on thistopictoday). Blackstoneand others:allowsthe companiesto scaleuptheirinvestments intonew Alinfrastructureand financial vehicles. Source:IDCLinktoBarclays Liveforinteractivecharting .Fluidstack: massively increases its footprint as a colo managed service provider (what theindustry calls"smart hands", or managed kubernetes) outside of Google's walls. In ourview, Fluidstack's recent fundraise may signal its intentions to become a TPU neocloud. U.S. Internet Ross Sandler+1 415 263 4470ross.sandler@barclays.comBCI, US Weviewthisnewbusinessmodelas a win-winacross theecosystemandshouldallowTPUtobecome more of an industry standard for Al developers and other Al labs. Alex Hughes+12125263069alexander.hughes@barclays.comBCI, US Barclays Capital Inc.and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as onlya single factorin making theirinvestment decision. Michael DiSanto+12125261054michael.disanto@barclays.comBCI, US Pleasesee analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning onpage12.Completed: 24-Jul-26, 00:05 GMTReleased: 24-Jul-26, 04:10 GMTRestricted-External Twomajorannouncementshave happened in thepastquarterthat could bematerialto GooGL financials over the coming years. The first was on May 18th where Blackstone and Google Cloudset up a JV run by a former Google exec to provide TPU-as-a-service to customers, with the first0.5 GWs coming online in '27 and more capacity into the futurel. This was followed up byanothermega-dealannouncementforminganAl XPVPlatformbetweenBroadcomandBlackstone/Apollo,enabling asmuch as 20 GWsof Al capacity through2028,withthefirst>1GWcoming online starting in "mid-2026"2. The latter will involve Al labs bringing both TPUs andothercustomASiCs (OpenAl's Jalepeno,etc.)online. P+L. These two entities could bring online 15-20 GWs of TPU-as-a-service Al cloud capacityoutside of what Google is doing inside GCP. FirstOff,WhatIsTPU-As-A-Service(TPU-aaS)?Historically,the onlyway an Al lab or enterprise customer could access Al specific compute running on Google's TPUs was via Google Cloud Platform (GCP).Customers would enterintoin'26 with the new"off platform" structures noted above.In the very nearfuture, Al labs whoare thelargestbuyers ofAlcompute (Anthropic, OpenAl, Meta,etc.)will be ableto buy computethrough a new vehicle that allows for more direct control. Broadcom explained it best in theirpress release:"It alsoestablishes a scalableframeworkforfuturedeployments ofxPU-basedcompute capacityandnetworking to enablefrontiermodel trainingand inference atthelowest cost and lowest power, significantlylowering per-token delivery costs."3TheXPU costthrough thisproviders, but offers more control to the Al labs. TPU-aaS Entity Structure Noted above,this new A