西门子能源：周期支持下维持买入，目标价上调至205欧元

Siemens Energy AG (ENR GR) ongoingmarketbackdropstrengthforgasturbines 205.00190.00 + Structural drivers for GT look robust and Gamesa's marchtowards profitability in H2 can provide relief +LiftTPtoEUR205(fromEUR190)onhigherpeermultipleand estimates; weak share price run helps derisk Q3 results An eventful Q3results in storeWith shares -19% since 24 April 2026 highs (vs.FTSE World Industrials +1%), we believeupcomingQ3FY26resultsforSiemensEnergy(ENR)on5Augustaretoangiven the strong demand backdrop. Gas Services (GS): debate is about thecycleJudging from Q2-26 results from main peer GE Vernova (GEV US, USD985.03, TP USD1,040, Hold), the key debates in gas power are around the pace of turbine ordergrowth in H2-26 and 2027and demand-supply balance in 2030 and beyond (see Q2earningsmisswithcyclical reassurance,23July2026).BothGEV and ENRhaveindicated further growth in overall GW commitments (ENR to 90-100GW byFY26and GEVto125GWbyYE-26)withpaceofconversionof slot reservationmarket demand in Q3FY26 and expects a strong starttoFY27 aftera weakerQ4,based on a 110-120GW sustained annual market for gas turbines (includingcombined-cycle)for the coming years.This contrasts with more conservativeguidance from MHI (7011 JT, JPY3,892, n/c) issued in May of falling y-0-y orders and70-100GWof global demandforgas turbines in2026 Grid Technologies (GT): a more structural story Sean McLoughlin*Senior Global Industrials AnalystHSBC Bank plcsean.mcloughlin@hsbcib.com+442079913464 We see more resilient order intake for grid equipment, driven by broaderelectrificationtrendsandrefurbishment/expansionneedsforlegacygrids.Highmarket growth is driving positive pricing in US, with pricing more stable in Europe. Siemens Gamesa:inchingtowardsprofitabilityinH2 StaceySun*Global Industrials AnalystHSBC Bank plcstacey.sun@hsbc.com+442032685810 We expect Gamesa to reach profitability in H2FY26 afteryears of losses (seep.3)thanks to high volume deliveries in offshore. We note a wider debate about offshorevolumes and better visibility post 2030 in Europecan allay shorter-term headwinds. Shashi Mishra*AssociateBangalore MaintainBuyandraiseTPtoEUR205fromEUR190 We marginally adjusttop-line estimates and our more positive view of margin growthfor GTandGS toFY28leads to an overall 10-30bps margin increase inFY26e/28eBased onanunchanged15%discountto GEV's 2028eEV/EBITDAmultiple, wederive a new TPof EUR205 (up from EUR190).With implied upside of35%, weretain Buy on ENR. *Employed byanon-USaffliateofHSBC Securities (USA) Inc,andisnot registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations No countryfor bears/The 24" edition of the EM Sentiment SurveyClick to vie Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. ViewHSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Source: company data, HSBC estimates Investmentthesis:OurBuyratingonSiemensEnergyisbasedonthefollowingfactors: 1attractively valued.2)Webelievethere is a solid outlook forENR's core business (ex-Siemens Gamesa).GasServices (GS) continues to deliver high-margin recurring revenue streams and benefitsfrom a demand rebound for new gas-fired power equipment. Grid Technologies (GT)stands to benefit from the rising urgency for new power transmission infrastructure, drivenby the global acceleration in electrification trends and renewables installations. We expectSE's Transformation of Industries division to also benefit in the medium term from industrialdecarbonisationtrends3)ExecutionoftheturnaroundplanatSiemensGamesa(SG),targetingbreakevenbyend-2026 once all onshoreturbine qualityissues havebeen addressed successfullyand withaterm earnings growth. We note that according to the company, turbine interventions toaddress quality issues are so far progressing to plan and onshore market re-entry is notcore to 2026 ambitions. share for 2025 is a positive startfor shareholder returns, in ourview, this is furtherbolsteredbyincreaseofFY26buybackvolume Upgraded guidance of FY26 also lead to our more positive view of the margin progression ofGrid Technologies business, which leads to an overall margin increase by 10-30bps forFY26e/28e.Our higher assumption of tax in FY26e leads to reduction in net profit by 11% inFY26e. Siemens Energy: Changes to estimatesHSBCestimates Riskstoourview Valuation Downside risks: (1) New quality issues withwind turbines driving higher-than-expectedprovisioning costs; (2) further offshore windramp-up delays; (3) peak demand for gridequipment; (4) project execution-related risk onpreviously committed fossil fuel-based projects;(5) longer-than-expected timelines and costs forcapacity ramp-up in GS and GT, includingpotential component supply shortages; and (6)intensification of competitive pressures inaltemative energy Disclosureappendix The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily resp