英飞凌：重申买入评级，目标价上调至90欧元

Forecast Change Germany Semiconductors Feedback from dbAccess EuropeanChampions conference JohannesSchaller Research Analyst+49-69-910-31731RobertSanders leaving roomforupside into'27eandbeyond-reiterateBuyWehosted AlexanderFoltin,Infineon's Head of Finance,Treasury&Investor Relations,as wellas Alexander Groschke,Directorof Investor Relations,at ourEuropean Champions conference in Frankfurt this Wednesday.The companyconveyedapositivemessageonunderlyinggrowth inAutomotive,strongdemandprospectsintheirAlbusinessaswellasavailablecapacitylonger-term.WeraiseourpricetargettoE90,valuing Infineonon35xCY27eP/E,apremiumtoanupdatedpeergroupaverage(~30x)toreflectstrongexposuretoAlpower,significantmarginexpansionpotential,continued sharegainsacrossAutomotiveandotherpartsoftheproductportfolioaswellasupsidetoourbasecase'27estimates.Wedetailourkeytakes fromthe event below: Research Analyst+44-20-754-58394Nicolas Herms Research Analyst+49-69-910-13052 Research Analyst+49-69-910-61797 Yusuf JamalResearch Associate 1.Infineon sees continued strongdemand momentumwithbacklogandordertrendspointingtoaverystrongFQ4 (Sepquarter)and a likelybetter-pricing trends across the broader non-Al portfolio. Group revenues areseen to grow 10% overall this year with Auto (about half of group)wellbelow.Having saidthat, on a like-for-like basis,adjustedforFX,the MarvellEthernet acquisition and the portfolio pruning on high-voltage powersemisforxEVs,Automotivewouldgrowaround9%thisyear,accordingtothe company.We are encouraged by that as a strong underlying Autobusiness (inadecliningunitmarketforlightvehicles)pairedwithupsideonAl revenuesbodeswellfor15%+revenuegrowthnextyear,inourview. Kunal GuptaResearch Associate Key changes 70.00to90.00个28.6%Source: Deutsche Bank 2.This is backedbygoodprogressonthecapacity sidewithDresden4rampingup,contributinggoodvolumesbycalendaryear-end.Beyondthis,conversionofVillach2oOmmcapacityinto3oOmmaswellaspotentialtoadd tools in Kulim3 (phase 1)clearlyunderpin upside to Infineon's E2.5bAl revenue targetforFY27,inourview.The company reiterated thatthis isabase caseview withpotential upside drivers andwe see unconstraineddemand potentially double thatlevel.FY27Al revenues for Infineon thusdepend on the incremental capacityrampas well as potentialforfurtherhit E4b+ in a blue sky capacity and demand scenario (with our basereflected in our published estimates at ~E3b).Beyond next year, variousexpansion opportunities across Germany (incl.ESMC foundry),AustriaandMalaysiawithlimitedbuildingCapExrequired (beyondKulim3phase2)shouldenable Infineonto sustain stronggrowthfromAl and otherend SemiconductorsInfineonTechnologies On the demand side, Infineon sees incremental drivers from CPU power supply for inference/agentic Al. This will likely use more lateral powersupply solutions vs vertical which is seeing adoption currently at GPU,ASlCandothercustomers.ContentperWattwillhencebesomewhatlowerbuttheoverall CPUopportunityisverymeaningfulinInfineon'sview,comingontopoftheexisting large scaleAldatacenteropportunitylargelyrelated toGPU,ASiC...power supply.Related to Al datacenter powerdemand,Infineonalso sees improvingdemandforphotovoltaicproducts.4.Looking at Automotive more closely,inventory restocking is definitely starting as customers are starting to fear a situation similar to 2021/22when"golden screw"components became unavailable dueto strongsemiconductordemandfromotherareas(especiallypersonalelectronicslow-/mid-voltageMOSFETs orNORFlashwhich is overall supportingAutoSemi pricing with scope for even flat or slightly increasing pricing goingforward, depending on how the situation continues to evolve.Betterpricing combinedwiththeportfoliopruninginthehighvoltageEVbusinessshould drive several 100s of bpsmargin improvement inAuto segmentmargins in FY27. Paired with a PSS Q4 exit segment margin above 30%(DBe)which still has roomto expand,we believe the company couldalreadyachieve 25%groupmargins inFY27e in a blue sky scenario (DBe23%). AddingupfeedbackfromFQ2results,ourconferenceaswellas a recentinterviewwith theCEO in German Handelsblatt, webelieve Infineoncould achieveclose to20% growth in FY27e and get to mid-20s margins in a blue sky scenario if thecapacityrampacross Dresden/Villach/Kulimremains on track.Wethuscontinuetosee upside to consensus estimates and reiterate our Buyrecommendation. Keydownsideriskstoourviewinclude:FX(every1c change in E/s impactsE25minrevenuesand10minEBITperquarter.Infineon'sguidanceisbasedon/$1.17),cyclicality and inventory destocking, potential headwinds from tariff uncertaintiesof geopolitics, and possiblyvalue-destructive M&A. Appendix 1 ImportantDisclosuresRequiredbyU.S.RegulatorsDisclosures marked with anasterisk mayalso be required by at least one jurisdiction in addition to the United States.See ImportantDisclosuresRequiredbyNon-USRegulatorsandExplanatoryNotes.1.Within the past year, Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has managed or co-managed a public offering for this co