人民币升值延迟但未被打乱

China - CNY appreciation delayed,not derailed The pause in CNY appreciation should not be mistaken for aturning point. While official resistance is likely to limit thepace of gains, ongoing exporter UsD conversions shouldcontinue to provide support. We maintain our constructiveCNY view and remain long CNHINR. +65 63085439 mitul.kotecha@barclays.comBarclays Bank, SingaporeAudrey Ong +65 6308 5637audreysz.ong@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Singapore Weappreciateyour5-starvotein the2026ExtelGlobalFixed-IncomeResearchSurvey intheAsia-ex-Japan:LocalMarketsFXStrategyand Local MarketsRatesStrategycategories.Viewouranalysts》Vote5Stars for Barclays) Supportourindustry-leadinganalystswith5-Starvotesinthisyear'sExtelGlobalFIResearchSurvey View Analysts CNYappreciationhasstalledfornow.Therewas someexcitementwhenUSDCNYbrokebelow6.80 in early May,followed by further fanfare when the daily fixing was set below this level on 10July-the strongest CNYfixing against the USD sinceFebruary 2023.However, the break below6.80 did not mark thestart of another sharplegof CNY appreciation; instead,it has beenfollowed by a period of consolidation. Webelieve themedium-termoutlook forthe CNYhas not changed materially and continueto expectgradual appreciationagainsttheUsDfollowingthis near-termpause.Wemaintain ourforecast for USDCNY at 6.65 by end-2026,modestly stronger than forwards, although thisimplies a slowerpace ofappreciationthan seen in recentmonths.Ourrationale is as follows: 1)ThePBoC continuestoleanagainstthepaceofappreciation.Whilethegapbetween theofficial USDCNY fixing and market-implied fixing has narrowed in recent weeks, the fixing hasconsistentlybeenfixedconsistentlyweakerthanmarketexpectationsoverthepastseveral This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependenceanddisclosurestandardsapplicabletodebtresearchreportspreparedforretailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionarybasis on behalf of certain clients.Such trading interestsmaybe contrary to the recommendations offered in this report. Pleaseseeanalyst certifications and importantdisclosuresbeginningonpage5.Completed:23-Jul-26, 03:56 GMT Released:23-Jul-26, 04:01 GMTRestricted -External pace of CNY appreciation, even if they are broadly tolerant of its direction.We see little reasonforthe PBoC to materially alterthis stance in thenearterm. 2)The CNY's relative strength is becoming a consideration.The CFETS CNYtrade-weightedindex is now close to its highest level since August 2022. While this has not yet become a majorconcern given the continued resilience of China's exports, the margin forfurther appreciationmay be narrowing.With domestic demand having softened further,policymakers can't afford toloseexportcompetitiveness.Moreover,theCNY'srealeffectiveexchangerate(REER)hasalsomoved higherin recent months, albeit from previously depressed levels, reinforcing the casefora moremeasuredpaceofappreciation. 3)ExporterUsDconversionflowsarelikelytoremainsupportive,butlesssothanbefore.Although China's trade surplusremains substantial,we expect exporter USD conversions tomoderate in the months ahead.Such conversions have alreadyslowed from earlierpeaks butremain elevated by historical standards, suggesting that upward pressure on the CNY shouldpersist, albeit at a reduced pace. We do not anticipate a significant slowdown in exports in thenearterm.However, a firmer UsD environment could encourage exporters to retain a largershare of theirforeign currency receipts ratherthan immediately converting them into CNY(Figure 3). 4)OnshoreCNYsentimenthasbecomelessconstructive.Sentimentindicatorshaveturnedless supportive offurther CNY gains.Given the dominant role offinancial institutions in onshoreparticular, 3-month 25-delta risk reversals have become less CNY-bullish compared with earlierthis year (Figure 4). While positioning remains far from outright bearish, the shift suggests thatexpectations forrapid CNYappreciation havemoderated,reducing apotentially importantsourceof momentumforthe currency. StaylongCNHINR.Given ourexpectationforonlygradual CNYappreciationagainsttheUSD-even against the backdrop of a large trade and current accountsurplus-we continue to favourrelative-value opportunities and maintain ourlong CNHINR recommendation.Whilewe believeit would take a significant shift in fundamentals forthe CNY to reverse course from currentlevels,wearemindful thata broad-basedUsD recoverycould leadto a sharperslowdown inexporterUSD conversions andtemperthepaceof appreciation. China has also introduced measures to limit capital outflows, which should help containdownside pressure on the CNY. Importantly,these measures suggest that, despite recentcurrency strength,policymakers remain reluctant to see a renewed depreciation cycle in thecurrency. 1) Authorities have tightened oversight of outbound investment channels. Since late May,regula