CSX 2Q：26 业绩超预期并上调指引：成本与燃料收入双驱动

Estimate ChangeDavid Vernon+1 917 344 8333david.vernon@bernsteinsg.com Justine Weiss+1 917 344 8433justine.weiss@bernsteinsg.com RatingMarket-Perform Specialist Sales Steve Song+1 917 344 8401steve.song@bernsteinsg.com Price Target 48.00 USD(47.00OLD) CSX 2Q:26 - Beat and raise on cost + fuel capture; setting up for apeak year on margin expansion CSX kicked off reporting season with a beat and a raise on the full year guide for marginexpansion. The company is delivering on the cost front, but may find it hard to sustain the rateof change into 2027 and we remain Market-Perform. 2Q Beat, margin raise. CSX delivered a 4-5% EPS beat in 2Q (with a little help from land).Numbers came in 5% of our normalized estimate (ex land), with half the beat from better netfuel expense (fuel was an EBIT tailwind in the quarter) and half from better MSO expense. Thecompany is delivering on cost actions, but there are only so many aircraft departments (e.g.)that can be cut so it might be harder to sustain progress into ‘27. Recovering service metricsmay also put some upward pressure on cost as we close ‘26. Raising margin guide to at least350bps of expansion, in line with bullish buy-side expectations. Taking numbers up modestly for 2026.The company beat our intermodal pricingassumption and is taking a firmer than expected line on fuel recovery, which when combinedwith the beat take our 2026 numbers up 5% and our 2027 estimates up 3%. The companyoffered a bullish intermodal and coal outlook while auto and chemical volumes may faceheadwinds into the second half. Stock likely to see gains, as investors that own are more likely to attribute cost savesto recurring potential and sentiment on an early to mid-cycle rotation from trucknames to rail and intermodal plays out. That said, the company’s aggressive actions oncost are bound to take a toll and may be harder to sustain in 2027 making 2026 a peak yearfor margin expansion. We raise our price target to $48, MP. Investment Implications VALUATION COMPS TABLE EXHIBIT 1:Rail Comp Sheet We reach our one-year price target of $48 (previously $47) by using our NTM+1 EPS estimate of $2.25 (previously $2.17) witha multiple of 21.5x (unchanged). DETAILS APPENDIX - FINANCIAL FORECASTS BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Société Générale. Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY CSX Corp We reach our one-year price target of $48 by using our NTM+1 EPS estimate of $2.25 with a multiple of 21.5x. We justify ourmultiple valuation with a DCF model where the first stage growth in cash flows and marginal returns on invested capital are basedon the output of our financial models, which in turn are driven by explicit assumptions regarding volume, yield, unit cost inflation,productivity and capital expenditures. Perpetuity stage cash flows are valued using an estimate of long term growth in nominalterms and an assumed long term return that is based on each individual company's WACC. In cases where fundamentals areexpected to drive major change in cash flows beyond a two-year investment horizon, we use multiples appropriate for a rate ofgrowth expected in future earnings one year from now. RISKS CSX Corp Downside risks to our target price for CSX include: changes in government regulation or rule making at the US SurfaceTransportation Board; changes in governmental clean air regulations and their impact on the coal markets; a slowdown in USor Global economic recovery; geopolitical disturbances that limit global trade flows; ability to recruit, train and staff employeesas volume driven growth requires resourcing; inflation in global steel prices; strikes or work stoppages at the company's largelyunionized workforce; risks attendant to the company's common carrier obligations and the transportation of hazardous materials.CSX is also a party to a class action suit involving fuel surcharges, and any settlement or adverse ruling from that case is notcurrently reflected in our estimates. Upside risks to our estimates are regulatio