Bloom Energy：业绩超预期并上调指引；正在超越过渡性解决方案叙事？

BE is increasingly moving beyond the ‘bridge solution’ narrative, supported byits standalone microgrid deployment with Oracle and similar discussions withother customers. Capacity expansion is shifting toward continuous additions,supporting >2GW by YE26. Guidance and the GM outlook improved, though thecadence and visibility of margin expansion remain key areas of focus. MaintainHOLD. ORCL's Jupiter Project Validates Standalone Power Model: BE's selection as the sole powerprovider for Oracle's Project Jupiter represents a major milestone that validates the co's standalonepower approach. Mgmt highlighted that other data center customers in the backlog are deployingsimilar micro-grid architectures: no grid connectivity, no diesel generators, no battery banks, noengines or turbines. BE's ultracapacitors also support the load following nature of training datacenters, alleviating any concerns there. The MSA structure with ORCL, creates flexibility for thecustomer, but also adds uncertainty in the cadence of delivery if there are any delays or pull-ins.While this may create some q/q noise, it will likely be driven on customer needs and not BE. Capacity Expansion Strategy Evolves to Match Customer Demand: BE has refined its capacityexpansion strategy from annual additions to continuous, qtrly increases of hundreds of MWs.Mgmt stated that its manufacturing footprint can support 5GW of annual production capacity, but withtechnological innovation and automation that brownfield capacity could be higher. Given the guidanceincrease (which we expected previously), and mgmt commentary, we now expect YE26 capacity to bemore than 2GW. Guidance Raise; Operational Leverage Becoming Clearer: BE raised its rev guide to $3.4-3.8bn vsour expectations of $3.7-3.9bn. We largely maintain our FY26 rev at $3.8bn. The co expects 2Q revto be in-line or better than 1Q. Importantly, non-GAAP GM guidance for '26 increased to 34% from32%, reflecting successful cost optimization and productivity initiatives (skid-based installation,enabling faster deployment, minimal if no external EPC involvement, per mgmt).However, despite1Q26 Product revenue tripling y/y, GM expanded by only ~20bps. We look for greater clarity on thecadence of margin improvement and the underlying drivers, which were not evident in 1Q26 on a y/y basis. Accordingly, we conservatively est ~33% GM for FY26. On pricing, mgmt noted its servershave reached cost-competitiveness with grid power in most US markets (we assume industrialrates at 10-12c/kWh, in-line with the latest data point we saw of 12c/kWh for BE) and with off-gridalternatives in nearly all markets. Source: Jefferies, Visible Alpha Valuation: Maintain HOLD and increase PT to $207.00. Focus remains on execution andincremental orders to justify valuation. Bulls continue to see a TAM beyond ~5GW for BE driven notjust by training but inference data centers too. Details within. The Long View: Bloom Energy Investment Thesis BE shares are up 160% YTD, driven by tangible order wins and data-centereuphoria. That said, we view valuation as stretched and expect investor focusto increasingly pivot from bookings to execution. While BTM momentum isimproving, most developers remain oriented toward FTM solutions. Currentexpectations bake in ~6GW+ of capacity by 2030, which is see as extremeand therefore note downside risk to current level. Incremental wins de-riskcapacity utilization rather than validate the growth implied by valuation. Ascapacity ramps, execution discipline, margins, and competitive share gain arelikely to matter more than headline backlog growth, skewing risk-reward to thedownside. Downside Scenario,$111, -51% Upside Scenario,$279, +23% Base Case,$207, -9% Our $207 PT takes an avg of EV / '30E EBITDAand DCF methodology. We apply a ~6x premium topeer avg '27 multiple of ~15x on $4bn '30E EBITDA(vs $2.7bn cons) and ~12% discount rate with ~5%terminal growth rate (unch) on DCF to arrive at ourPT. Our $111 downside underwrites in-line multipletopeers and 35%downside risk to EBITDA,driven by no uplift from data centers, and mutedinternationalgrowth,resulting in EBITDA,EPSdown 35% vs our base case. For our valuationmethodology, we apply an in-line multiple vs peersand increase DCF discount rate by 4pp. Our$279 upside implies an incremental 2xpremium to (total 8x) peer average, with 20%upside to base case EBITDA and 2% discount tothe DCF discount rate. In 2026E, rev of ~$3.8bn, +18% vs cons, with ~33%GM margins. Sustainability Matters Catalysts 1) Incremental orders to justify valuation2) Focus on Execution3) CFO Outlook4) Volume Cadence5) Outlook on Margin Profile Longer Term Top Material Issue(s): 1.GHG Emissions:Company addresses Scope 1 (direct) and Scope 2 (indirect) emissionsassociated with its operations. Company Target(s): 1.Company aims to produce electrolyzers that can produce green H2, plus carbon capturesolutions Qs to Mgmt: 1.Can existing SOFCs be retrofitted for carbon capture or